2007 April Poll Powerpoint

Information about 2007 April Poll Powerpoint

Published on September 5, 2007

Author: VolteMort

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Cook Political Study:  Cook Political Study Telephone interviews April 20-22, 2007 Survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide, including 855 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ±3.1 for all adults nationwide, ±3.4 for registered voters Key Findings::  Key Findings: Dissatisfaction with the frontrunners? 22% would strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate, or volunteer someone else they would vote for, or are not sure how they would vote if the major party candidates are Clinton and McCain. About the same number, 17%, would look elsewhere if the major party candidates were Clinton and Giuliani. Overall, 18% say they would strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate if the major party candidates were either Clinton-McCain or Clinton-Giuliani. Bloomberg does not win even half of that vote up for grabs. Bloomberg takes 7% of McCain’s 2-way vote and 7% of Clinton’s 2-way vote in a Clinton-McCain-Bloomberg 3-way contest, with fewer than half of those undecided in a Clinton-McCain 2-way going to Bloomberg in a Clinton-McCain-Bloomberg 3-way race. Bloomberg’s 9% total vote is bolstered by political Independents (14%), in the Northeast (14%), and among non-whites (11%), those age 35-49 (11%) and those with a high-school education or less (11%). In a Clinton-McCain-Bloomberg 3-way, Bloomberg does well in the Farm Belt and Mountain states (12%). Why? Because among the 18% who would strongly consider an Independent candidate, 45% are initially McCain voters, 27% Clinton, 28% other/not sure. Right now, the 'political Independents for McCain' vote comprises most of the vote up for grabs. In the strange event of an all-Gotham 3-way race (Clinton-Giuliani-Bloomberg), the current Mayor wins 8% overall, including 11% in the West, 9% in the Northeast and 9% in the Midwest, only 6% in the South. Bloomberg wins 10% of men, 6% of women. He wins 12% of those with only a high school education. Bloomberg gets 12% of the Independent vote, Giuliani 44%, Clinton 30%. One reason Giuliani does so well in that all-Gotham match-up (winning 45%-38%, with 8% for Bloomberg and 9% other/not sure) is Clinton’s weakness among soft Democrats. Giuliani holds onto 66% of soft Republicans but Clinton holds onto only 51% of soft Democrats in the all-Gotham 3-way. Giuliani has no problem at this point with Republican white born-again Christians, winning 84% of their vote in a 3-way contest. Giuliani does at least as well as McCain holding onto either weak or extremely conservative Republican partisans, while Giuliani’s presence in the race may do marginally more to interfere with Clinton’s support among soft Democrats than what we find with McCain as the Republican nominee. Slide3:  I know the election in November 2008 is a long way off, but if (ROTATE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican? (IF NEITHER, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (ROTATE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican? Clinton vs McCain Slide4:  I know the election in November 2008 is a long way off, but if (ROTATE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican? (IF NEITHER, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (ROTATE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican? Clinton vs McCain Democrats Independents Republicans Slide5:  If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, and New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg were running as an Independent candidate who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican, OR Mike Bloomberg, the Independent? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican, OR Bloomberg, the Independent? Clinton vs McCain vs Bloomberg Slide6:  If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, and New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg were running as an Independent candidate who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican, or Mike Bloomberg, the Independent? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican, or Bloomberg, the Independent? Clinton vs McCain vs Bloomberg Democrats Independents Republicans Slide7:  If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party’s candidate, and New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg were running as an Independent candidate who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, or Mike Bloomberg, the Independent? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or Giuliani, the Republican, or Bloomberg, the Independent? Clinton vs Giuliani vs Bloomberg Slide8:  Clinton vs Giuliani vs Bloomberg Democrats Independents Republicans If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party’s candidate, and New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg were running as an Independent candidate who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, or Mike Bloomberg, the Independent? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or Giuliani, the Republican, or Bloomberg, the Independent? Slide9:  Clinton vs McCain vs Independent If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican, or would you strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate if the candidates were (ROTATE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican, or strongly considering voting for an Independent candidate? Slide10:  Clinton vs McCain vs Independent Democrats Independents Republicans If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican, or would you strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate if the candidates were (ROTATE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican, or strongly considering voting for an Independent candidate? Slide11:  Clinton vs Giuliani vs Independent If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican, or would you strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate if the candidates were (ROTATE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican, or strongly considering voting for an Independent candidate? Slide12:  Clinton vs Giuliani vs Independent Democrats Independents Republicans If (RANDOMIZE:) New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for– (RANDOMIZE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican, or would you strongly consider voting for an Independent candidate if the candidates were (ROTATE:) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican? (IF NONE OF THESE, DON’T KNOW, OR REFUSED, ASK:) As of today, do you lean more toward (RANDOMIZE:) Clinton, the Democrat, or Giuliani, the Republican, or strongly considering voting for an Independent candidate?

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