2016 GDP - Canada - Risk and Threats - June 2016

Information about 2016 GDP - Canada - Risk and Threats - June 2016

Published on June 11, 2016

Author: paulyoungcga

Source: slideshare.net

Content

1. GDP – Canada – Analysis and Trends – June 2016 By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. Disclaimer • This presentation discuss forecasted 2016 GDP for Canada

3. Paul Young - Presenter Bio • CPA/CGA • 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions • Youtube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg

4. Agenda • Economic growth • Assumptions • Forecasted Results • Issues/Threats

5. Global Forecast

6. Assumptions / GDP – Canada • Oil Prices - $50 / December 2016 – ($49.07 – June 10, 2016) • Government spending (Stimulus spending – Gas Tax, Build Canada, Transit, Clean Technology) • Strong Automotive Sales (21M units for North America) • Housing Starts (1.1M USA and 200K Canada) • Retail Sales (Canada 2.1% growth) • Export Sales (2.1% for Canada)

7. GDP / Canada Threats/Risk • Ontario Carbon Tax • Alberta Carbon Tax • Governments money flow • South American economic collapses spreading) • No rebound in commodity prices • Geopolitical • New US Government • Sluggish wage growth • 0.7% growth from March 2015 to March 2016 • Capital Investment • Ports • Roads • Bridges • Rail • Energy decisions • New pipelines • Disaster • Fort McMurray Fire

8. Other Sources: • Commercial - http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/Research/north-america- cow.pdf?0439a3f9-8e98-4e2b-b08a-bfa9d50cf9fb • Canada Retail Sales - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-canada- february-2016 • USA Retail Sales - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-march- 2016 • Nearshoring - http://cerasis.com/2016/04/04/nearshoring-and-reshoring/ • Trade - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-for-canada- april-2016 • Employment - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-canada-may- 2016 • Real Estate - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-estate-market-north- america-june-2016 • Scotiabank - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf

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