Published on December 6, 2015
1. Page 1 of 7 QSE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QSE Index declined 0.7% to close at 10,479.3. Losses were led by the Telecoms and Banks & Financial Services indices, falling 5.5% and 0.8%, respectively. Top losers were Ooredoo and Qatar Islamic Insurance Co., falling 7.1% and 3.8%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Dlala Brokerage & Investment Holding Co. gained 4.9%, while Qatar Insurance Co. was up 1.7%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index fell 1.1% to close at 7,268.0. Losses were led by the Real Estate Development and Industrial Investment indices, falling 2.3% and 1.9%, respectively. Makkah Construction & Development Co. fell 4.8%, while MetLife AIG ANB Cooperative Insurance Co. was down 3.7%. Dubai: The market was closed on December 3, 2015. Abu Dhabi: The market was closed on December 3, 2015. Kuwait: The KSE Index declined 0.3% to close at 5,788.7. The Health Care index fell 4.0%, while the Technology index declined 2.4%. Al-Qurain Holding Co. plunged 17.7%, while Safwan Trading & Contracting Co. was down 7.7%. Oman: The market was closed on December 3, 2015. Bahrain: The BHB Index gained 0.2% to close at 1,227.2. The Commercial Bank index rose 0.6%, while the Services index gained 0.1%. National Bank of Bahrain rose 2.8%, while Seef Properties was up 2.0%. QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Dlala Brokerage & Inv. Holding Co. 18.89 4.9 67.7 (43.5) Qatar Insurance Co. 87.90 1.7 25.8 11.6 Qatar Indust. Manufacturing Co. 41.60 1.3 2.6 (4.0) Industries Qatar 109.00 1.2 169.5 (35.1) Doha Insurance Co. 22.25 1.1 15.9 (23.3) QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Masraf Al Rayan 37.60 0.0 1,209.8 (14.9) Gulf International Services 53.40 (0.2) 712.6 (45.0) United Development Co. 21.00 (0.6) 602.6 (11.0) Qatar Gas Transport Co. 23.50 (0.4) 492.1 1.7 Ezdan Holding Group 16.50 (1.1) 348.8 10.6 Market Indicators 03 Dec 15 02 Dec 15 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 213.2 323.6 (34.1) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 550,622.9 555,658.0 (0.9) Volume (mn) 5.0 6.4 (21.4) Number of Transactions 3,102.0 4,539 (31.7) Companies Traded 41 40 2.5 Market Breadth 11:28 17:19 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 16,288.54 (0.7) (0.4) (11.1) 10.8 All Share Index 2,789.90 (0.7) (0.7) (11.5) 11.0 Banks 2,797.49 (0.8) (0.4) (12.7) 11.4 Industrials 3,122.95 (0.1) 0.8 (22.7) 11.9 Transportation 2,467.84 (0.2) (2.1) 6.4 11.7 Real Estate 2,418.24 (0.8) (2.5) 7.7 7.8 Insurance 4,300.78 0.7 0.9 8.6 11.9 Telecoms 955.84 (5.5) 0.8 (35.7) 20.9 Consumer 6,105.31 (0.7) (3.1) (11.6) 13.5 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,895.22 (0.6) (1.6) (5.0) 11.5 GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Saudi Res. & Marketing Saudi Arabia 51.00 9.7 610.5 206.9 Al Tayyar Travel Saudi Arabia 76.79 8.9 5,773.2 (14.0) Kingdom Holding Co. Saudi Arabia 18.18 4.5 4,865.7 0.4 Nat.Bank Of Bahrain Bahrain 0.73 2.8 29.4 (6.2) Arabian Cement Saudi Arabia 52.72 2.8 428.6 (32.0) GCC Top Losers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Ooredoo Qatar 73.60 (7.1) 162.3 (40.6) Makkah Construction Saudi Arabia 91.92 (4.8) 282.4 16.9 Qatari Investors Group Qatar 39.00 (3.5) 23.5 (5.8) Saudi Printing & Pack. Saudi Arabia 27.70 (3.4) 11,940.5 48.1 Saudi Fisheries Saudi Arabia 17.05 (3.3) 1,275.6 (38.2) Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Ooredoo 73.60 (7.1) 162.3 (40.6) Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. 69.00 (3.8) 3.1 (12.7) Qatari Investors Group 39.00 (3.5) 23.5 (5.8) Qatar German Co for Medical Dev. 12.95 (3.2) 25.7 27.6 Ahli Bank 48.00 (3.0) 3.4 (3.3) QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% Masraf Al Rayan 37.60 0.0 45,277.4 (14.9) Gulf International Services 53.40 (0.2) 37,724.2 (45.0) Industries Qatar 109.00 1.2 18,157.9 (35.1) QNB Group 165.40 (1.5) 16,757.2 (22.3) United Development Co. 21.00 (0.6) 12,669.5 (11.0) Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 10,479.28 (0.7) (0.4) 3.8 (14.7) 58.57 151,256.1 10.8 1.6 4.9 Dubai## 3,204.28 0.3 0.0 (8.5) (15.1) 91.55 86,639.7 12.6 1.2 7.8 Abu Dhabi## 4,236.39 1.5 0.4 (2.0) (6.5) 623.55 117,460.0 11.1 1.2 5.8 Saudi Arabia 7,268.02 (1.1) 0.4 0.4 (12.8) 1,720.84 444,600.1 16.4 1.7 3.5 Kuwait 5,788.74 (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (11.4) 27.02 89,846.4 15.0 1.0 4.5 Oman # 5,557.73 0.2 (2.0) 0.2 (12.4) 10.95 22,698.7 10.1 1.2 4.7 Bahrain 1,227.17 0.2 (0.5) (0.4) (14.0) 0.84 19,238.9 8.0 0.8 5.6 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, MSM, DFM and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any, #Data as of Dec 1, 2015, ##Data as of Nov 30, 2015) 10,350 10,400 10,450 10,500 10,550 10,600 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
2. Page 2 of 7 Qatar Market Commentary The QSE Index declined 0.7% to close at 10,479.3. The Telecoms and Banks & Financial Services indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling pressure from non-Qatari and GCC shareholders despite buying support from Qatari shareholders. Ooredoo and Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. were the top losers, falling 7.1% and 3.8%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Dlala Brokerage & Investment Holding Co. gained 4.9%, while Qatar Insurance Co. was up 1.7%. Volume of shares traded on Thursday fell by 21.4% to 5.0mn from 6.4mn on Wednesday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 7.1mn, volume for the day was 29.5% lower. Masaraf Al Rayan and Gulf International Services were the most active stocks, contributing 24.1% and 14.2% to the total volume, respectively. Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Earnings and Global Economic Data Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn) 3Q2015 % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) 3Q2015 % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) 3Q2015 % Change YoY Makkah Construction & Development Co. (MCDC) Saudi Arabia SR – – 86.0 -2.3% 83.0 -2.4% Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM Global Economic Data Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous 12/03 US Department of Labor Initial Jobless Claims 28-November 269k 269k 260k 12/03 US Bloomberg Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29-November 39.6 – 40.9 12/03 US Institute for Supply Manag. ISM Non-Manf. Composite November 55.9 58.0 59.1 12/03 US Census Bureau Factory Orders October 1.50% 1.40% -0.80% 12/04 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Change in Household Employment November 244.0 225.0 320.0 12/04 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Force Participation Rate November 62.50% 62.40% 62.40% 12/04 US Census Bureau Trade Balance October -$43.89bn -$40.50bn -$42.46bn 12/04 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Change in Private Payrolls November 197k 190k 304k 12/04 US Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Rate November 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 12/03 EU Eurostat Retail Sales MoM October -0.10% 0.20% -0.10% 12/03 EU Eurostat Retail Sales YoY October 2.50% 2.60% 2.90% 12/03 EU ECB ECB Deposit Facility Rate 3-December -0.30% -0.30% -0.20% 12/03 EU ECB ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3-December 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 12/04 EU Markit Markit Eurozone Retail PMI November 48.5 – 51.3 12/03 France INSEE ILO Unemployment Rate 3Q2015 10.60% 10.40% 10.40% 12/03 France INSEE ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate 3Q2015 10.20% 10.00% 10.00% 12/04 France Markit Markit France Retail PMI November 47.8 – 51.9 12/04 Germany Deutsche Bundesbank Factory Orders MoM October 1.80% 1.20% -0.70% 12/04 Germany Markit Markit Germany Construction PMI November 52.5 – 51.8 12/04 Germany Markit Markit Germany Retail PMI November 49.6 – 52.4 12/03 UK Markit Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI November 55.9 55.0 54.9 12/03 UK Markit Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI November 55.8 55.0 55.4 12/03 Spain Markit Markit Spain Services PMI November 56.7 56.4 55.9 12/03 Spain Markit Markit Spain Composite PMI November 56.2 – 55.0 12/04 Spain INE Industrial Output NSA YoY October -0.30% – 3.80% 12/04 Spain INE Industrial Output SA YoY October 4.00% 4.10% 3.70% 12/04 Spain INE Industrial Production MoM October 0.20% -0.50% 1.10% 12/03 Italy Markit Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI November 53.4 53.9 53.4 12/03 Italy Markit Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI November 54.3 – 53.9 12/04 Italy Markit Markit Italy Retail PMI November 47.7 – 48.8 12/03 China Markit Caixin China PMI Composite November 50.5 – 49.9 12/03 China Markit Caixin China PMI Services November 51.2 – 52.0 Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted) Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari 72.78% 54.95% 38,009,264.42 GCC 2.95% 5.31% (5,041,562.23) Non-Qatari 24.28% 39.74% (32,967,702.19)
3. Page 3 of 7 News Qatar QSE: IHGS rights issue selling starts today – The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) has announced that the period of selling the Islamic Holding Group’s (IHGS) rights issue (R002) will start on December 6, 2015. This is with reference to the Selling Rights Issue Rules issued by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA) and the provisions of market notice no. (23) Dated October 7, 2015. Rights selling period for 2mn issued rights will be for 10 working days. (QSE) Barwa Bank lists $2bn Sukuk program on Irish Stock Exchange – Barwa Bank has listed a $2bn Islamic bonds program on the Irish Stock Exchange, taking it a step closer to tapping the Sukuk market for the first time. Rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch have assigned ratings of A2 and A+, respectively, to the Sukuk program. Barwa is classified as a systemically important bank, with 53% of its share capital owned by the Qatari government through Qatari Holding and other government funds. The bank’s Sukuk program uses an agency-based structure known as Wakala, where a portfolio of Shari’ah-compliant assets is managed on behalf of Sukuk certificate holders. The transaction is being arranged by Citigroup. (Reuters) Qatar signs contracts for QR1.6bn labor housing project – Qatar has signed contracts for the first phase of a massive labor accommodation project that will eventually house 179,000 workers. The project will be executed by private companies on a build-operate-transfer (BOT) basis and includes all services, facilities and entertainment areas. Seven housing complexes will be built on an area of over 6.6mn square meters in three phases. The designated areas are Umm Salal Mohammed, Birkat Al Awamer, Umm Ghuwailina, Al Wakrah and Al Shamal. The government will invest around QR1.6bn for the project, which is expected to be completed by 2017-end. (Peninsula-Qatar) MEC to allot industrial plots today – The Ministry of Economy & Commerce (MEC) will allot plots of land in one of the country’s biggest industrial and logistics areas on December 6, 2015. The plots to be allotted are in three industrial and logistics zones in the South of Al Wakrah, Birkat Al Awamir and Aba Salil. This will be the first phase of such allotment, which will be decided through lottery. The total number of eligible applicants, who will be participating in the lottery to be held publicly, is 2,994. Priority in allotment will be given to 100% Qatari companies with the idea of encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). (Peninsula-Qatar) Qatar Re gets approval to domicile in Bermuda – Qatar Reinsurance Company (Qatar Re) has received regulatory approval to domicile in Bermuda. The company said it had completed the process of re- domiciling to Bermuda, and has been granted a Class 4 license from the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA), following all regulatory approvals effective December 3, 2015. The company said it will continue to benefit from a parental guarantee from Qatar Insurance Company and from the existing A/Stable and A (Excellent) ratings from Standard & Poor’s and A.M. Best. Qatar Re’s capitalization will increase to around $500mn due to re- domiciling. (Gulftimes.com) DHBK: Qatar’s economic model is sustainable – Doha Bank (DHBK) Group CEO Dr R Seetharaman has said that Qatar’s economic model is sustainable because of non-hydrocarbon diversification. Seetharaman made the statement during a business meeting hosted by DHBK in New Delhi, India where he discussed “Bilateral opportunities among India, Qatar, and Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).” The event, held recently at the ITC Maurya Hotel, was supported by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and witnessed the participation of key dignitaries from various corporate organizations from the National Capital Region (NCR). According to Seetharaman, Qatar’s economy is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2015. He said Qatar’s GDP had risen to 4.8% in 2Q2015 on the back of robust growth in the construction, financial services, and hospitality sectors. Other economic achievements have placed Qatar in the 14th spot of the World Economic Forum competitiveness index. He said Qatar has established the economic zones company, Manateq, to develop and operate three special economic zones that provide infrastructure in accordance with the highest international standards to reach new levels of economic diversity and promote the growth of the small and medium-sized companies (SME) and the private sector. Seetharaman said Um Al Houl Special Economic Zone’s first phase of development will start in 2016. (Gulf-Times.com) QC, DHBK sign pact – Qatar Chamber (QC) and Doha Bank (DHBK) have signed an agreement to open a new branch of the bank at the QC headquarters on D-Ring Road. The new branch aims to offer services to QC members and clients and will receive customers from 7am to 12noon from Sunday to Thursday, in line with QC working hours. (Gulf-Times.com) Al Kuwari: LNG market to grow despite turbulence – RasGas Chief Marketing & Shipping Officer Khalid Sultan al Kuwari has said that despite some recent turbulence, the global business environment for liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains strong, and a continuous growth in demand is expected for years to come. Presenting his 'Overview of the LNG Industry in the Year Past, the Present and the Future' as a member of the Global Strategy Panel at the CWC World LNG Summit in Rome recently, Al Kuwari said that a growth rate of approximately 5% per year is anticipated from 2015 to 2025. During this period, LNG demand is expected to outpace the overall growth in natural gas demand. (Qatar Tribune) Doha Port to receive 30 cruise ships in 2016 – Doha Port Management Director Captain Abdul Aziz Nasser al Yafei said that Doha Port is expected to receive around 30 cruise ships in 2016. The port has received three cruise ships in 2015. He said Doha Port received around 1,500 passengers in 2015, who arrived in Qatar on the three cruise ships. The number of passenger arrival at the Doha Port would double in 2016 with the increase in the number of cruise ships. The new Hamad Port will also be ready to receive mega cruise ships starting from 2016. He said Hamad Port will conduct a test run in December to receive commercial vessels. (Qatar Tribune) International PMI: Global business growth accelerated in November 2015 – According to a recent survey, global business growth accelerated in November 2015 as new orders picked up despite firms raising prices at the steepest rate since July 2015. JPMorgan’s Global All- Industry Output Index, produced with Markit, rose to 53.7 in November 2015 from October's 53.1. It has been above the 50 mark since October 2012. JPMorgan Director David Hensley said the November PMI surveys point to a further step in the right direction for the global economy. He said if faster increases in new orders and employment translate into a further bounce in the pace of expansion in December 2015, the 4Q2015 GDP growth should come in a shade higher than that registered during 3Q2015. (Reuters) US trade deficit widens as exports hit three-year low – According to the Commerce Department, US trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October 2015 as exports fell to a three-year low, suggesting that trade could again weigh on economic growth in the 4Q2015. The trade gap rose 3.4% to $43.9bn, a sign that the worst of the drag from a stronger dollar was far from over. September's trade deficit was revised up to $42.5bn from the previously reported $40.8bn.
4. Page 4 of 7 The government revised trade figures going back to April to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data. Trade subtracted 0.22 percentage point from GDP in 3Q2015, which expanded at a 2.1% annual rate. The dollar's 18.6% appreciation against the currencies of the US’ main trading partners since June 2014 has eroded export growth. Exports fell 1.4% to $184.1bn, the lowest level since October 2012. Imports dipped 0.6% to $228.0bn in October 2015. (Reuters) Bank of England approves capital models for 19 UK insurers – British insurers Aviva and Prudential and the Lloyd's of London insurance market were among 19 firms to have their capital calculation models approved by the Bank of England, enabling them to lower costs under new rules. Approval means the insurers can use their internal models to determine how much capital they hold to ensure they can meet policyholder commitments under European Union Solvency II capital rules that come into force in January 2016. Without such endorsement, firms must use a standard calculation method of their solvency set out by regulators, which typically leads to higher capital requirements. That could force companies to raise fresh capital or put pressure on dividend payments to shareholders. (Reuters) Greek parliament approves austere budget for 2016 – The Greek parliament approved a 2016 budget featuring sharp cuts in spending and some tax increases to satisfy the country's international lenders at a time of growing austerity fatigue. The leftist-led government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is under pressure to deliver tangible benefits to its poorest citizens after having signed to a third rescue package from Eurozone governments in August 2015 worth up to €86bn. The budget makes €5.7bn in public spending cuts including €1.8bn from pensions and €500mn from defense. The savings are greater than €1.5bn in 2015. It also included tax increases of just over €2bn. He stressed that for the first time in five years, spending on hospitals, social welfare and job creation was being increased modestly within the bailout's constraints. Tsipras said that was possible because his government had secured greater fiscal space by reducing its primary budget surplus target before debt service to 0.5% of GDP in tough negotiations with the creditors. The budget will have a deficit of 2.1% of GDP in 2016 compared with 0.2% in 2015. Meanwhile the European Commission has approved state aid of €2.71bn for National Bank of Greece, based on a modified restructuring plan. According to the European Union's rules on state aid, the commission concluded that measures the National Bank of Greece has already implemented will allow it to secure a grant of credit to the Greek economy. (Reuters) Japan to cut planned bond issue in FY2015-16 by around ¥500bn – According to sources, the Japanese government will reduce its plans to issue new bonds in FY2015-16 by around ¥400bn to ¥500bn when it crafts an extra stimulus package in December 2015 as it aims to pursue both growth and fiscal reform. This would mark a second straight year of reduction in planned government borrowing thanks to higher tax revenue from rising corporate profits, a windfall from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stimulus policies dubbed "Abenomics". The government initially planned to issue ¥36.863tn of new bonds, the lowest level in seven years. The initial budget for the fiscal year that ends in March 2016 was ¥96.342tn.The government and ruling coalition are arranging to compile extra stimulus spending worth ¥3.3tn–¥3.4tn, which includes steps to support low-income groups and farmers seen hit by the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Abe's cabinet is expected to approve the extra budget on December 18, 2015. (Reuters) Regional QNBK: GCC outlook ‘positive’ on strong macroeconomic fundamentals – QNB Group (QNBK), in its latest economic outlook, has said that the GCC’s economic outlook remains positive driven by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and commitment to infrastructure investment programs. QNBK forecasted a growth of 2.5-3.5% in 2015-16 for the GCC. The report said large buffers and available financial reserves should allow most GCC countries to avoid sharp cuts in government spending, limiting the impact on near-term growth, which would result in a positive reflection on the stock markets of these countries. QNBK said it considers GCC markets are oversold and the valuation is being attractive for some of these markets. There would be strong inflow in markets like Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest regional market. (Gulftimes.com) OPEC fails to agree production ceiling after Iran pledges output boost – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members on Friday failed to agree on an oil production ceiling at a meeting that ended in acrimony after Iran said it would not consider any production curbs until it restores output scaled back for years under Western sanctions. Friday’s developments set up the fractious cartel for more price wars in an already heavily oversupplied market. Oil prices have more than halved over the past 18 months to a fraction of what most OPEC members need to balance their budgets. A final OPEC statement was issued with no mention of a new production ceiling. The last time OPEC failed to reach a deal was in 2011, when Saudi Arabia was pushing the group to increase output to avoid a price spike amid a Libyan uprising. OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al Badri said OPEC could not agree on any figures because it could not predict how much oil Iran would add to the market next year, as sanctions are withdrawn under a deal reached six months ago with world powers over its nuclear program. (Reuters) GCC countries dominate IFDI 2015 rankings – According to the Islamic Finance Development Indicator (IFDI) report 2015, Malaysia leads IFDI again while the GCC countries continue to dominate the top of the rankings for the third year in a row. Among the GCC countries, Bahrain maintained its second position globally, while the UAE switched positions with Oman to come third, with the latter dropping to the fourth position. Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s second biggest jurisdiction in terms of Islamic finance assets, jumped to 6th from 9th overall, largely due to improvement in its CSR activities. The IFDI report has been prepared by Thomson Reuters and Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD). (Gulfbase.com) Global Sukuk demand to grow despite slowdown – According to the ‘Sukuk Perceptions & Forecast’ study conducted by Thomson Reuters, in partnership with Qatar’s Barwa Bank, drop in oil prices and expected increase in global interest rates have dampened activity in the global Sukuk market in 2015. In fact, there was only one new issuer, the Omani government, which issued its debut sovereign Sukuk in October 2015. Total Sukuk issued in 9M2015 dropped a drastic 38.6% to $48.8bn from $79.5bn in 9M2014. The Sukuk papers were also issued in 12 currencies in 9M2015 as compared to 16 currencies in 9M2014. However, the report found that the potential demand and supply pipeline of Sukuk is expected to grow. Despite this increase, demand is still expected to outstrip supply substantially until 2020 reaching $253.7bn. (Peninsula-Qatar) EY: QISMUT Islamic banks’ assets set to reach $801bn – According to Ernst & Young’s (EY) World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2016, Islamic banking assets of commercial banks based in Qatar, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the UAE and Turkey (denoted as QISMUT) are set to reach $801bn in 2015, representing 80% of international Islamic banking assets. Globally, Islamic banking assets with commercial banks are set to exceed
5. Page 5 of 7 $920bn in 2015. Islamic banking continues to see strong growth with a CAGR of 16%. In 2014, the GCC countries added $91bn in Shari’ah compliant assets, representing a YoY growth of 18.0%. (Gulfbase.com) SAICO gets SAMA temporary approval for 25 insurance products – Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Company (SAICO) has obtained the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency’s (SAMA) temporary approval for its 25 insurance products for six months starting December 2, 2015. (Tadawul) GUCIC updates on rights issue – Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Company (GUCIC) has informed that the company, along with its financial advisor Aljazira Capital, is in the process of preparing the file to be submitted in January 2016 to the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in order to get approval for the capital increase. (Tadawul) KSA Oil Minister: Global oil demand can absorb Iran output jump – Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi has said that growing global demand could absorb an expected jump in Iranian production in 2016. Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said Iraq would further raise output in 2016 after having steeply increased production in 2015. He added that rival OPEC member Iran also had the right to increase output after Western sanctions are lifted. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said Tehran would be prepared to discuss OPEC quotas or other action only when his country reaches pre-sanction oil output levels. (Reuters) The Headquarters Business Park opens in Jeddah – The Headquarters Business Park, the two-tower business hub located in northern Jeddah on the cornice, has been inaugurated. The west tower overlooks the cornice and is 52-storey high while the east tower is 16-storey high and overlooks Prince Faisal Bin Fahd Street. Adeem International is the owner of The Headquarters Business Park, which took six years for completion. (Gulfbase.com) UAE Oil Minister: OPEC open to discussions with non-OPEC countries – UAE Oil Minister Suhail bin Mohamed Al Mazroui has said that OPEC should cooperate with non-OPEC countries and that the group was open to such discussions. However, the minister said that the oil market would decide when to balance itself. He added that the sustainability of crude supply was more of a concern than worry about prices. (Reuters) Depa posts AED22mn loss in 3Q2015 – Interior contractor Depa has declared a net loss of AED22mn in 3Q2015 as compared to a net profit of AED19mn in 3Q2014. Revenues dropped to AED347mn in 3Q2015 as compared to AED513mn in 3Q2014. Despite the economic challenges in 3Q2015, Depa managed to sign new contracts worth AED279mn across different geographies, in line with its diversification strategy. This brings the total value of new projects won in 9M2015 to AED1.23bn. (Gulfbase.com) ADNOC plans to cut costs sharply amid low oil prices – Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Head of Strategy & Coordination Ali Khalifa al-Shamsi has said that the company is planning to bring down capital and operating expenditure by 25%. This underlines the extent of the pain induced by continued low oil prices, with the newly announced cuts going beyond the 10-15% that ADNOC had targeted back in May 2015. He said ADNOC would continue with all its projects, even though the 60% drop in the oil price since summer 2014 had led to sharp cuts in capital investment. The 25% cuts would put ADNOC in line with recent spending curbs by international oil companies. It also fits with a shift towards greater fiscal conservatism in the GCC region. (Bloomberg) GMR to raise $300mn from Kuwait Investment Authority – GMR Infrastructure Limited has said that it is raising $300mn from the Kuwait Investment Authority by selling foreign currency convertible bonds due in 2075. GMR, an India-based infrastructure company, will use the funds to repay some outstanding obligations. (Reuters) Fitch affirms Kuwait at ‘AA’, outlook stable – Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kuwait’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDR) at ‘AA’, with a stable outlook. The country ceiling has been affirmed at ‘AA+’ and the short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘F1+’. Kuwait’s key credit strengths are its exceptionally strong fiscal and external metrics and, at around $48 per barrel, one of the lowest fiscal break-even Brent oil prices among Fitch-rated oil exporters. The rating agency said that forecast fiscal and external surpluses would continue to add to the country’s existing buffers, if at a lower rate than historically. These strengths are tempered by Kuwait’s heavily oil-dependent economy, a degree of geopolitical risk, and weak scores on measures of governance and ease of doing business. Fitch said Kuwait has ample assets to cover medium-term spending needs. (Reuters) KPC: Kuwait LNG imports would rise 17% in 2015 – Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) naphtha, mogas and LPG sales manager Khaled Al-Sabah has said that Kuwait LNG imports are on track to rise around 17% to 3mn tons in 2015, boosted by the fuel’s increased competitiveness with gas oil. The Gulf Arab state imported around 2.5mn tons of LNG in 2014 via its floating import terminal, which it leases for the peak energy demand months from March to November, with an option to extend over additional months. He said the option to extend the lease on the floating import terminal, due to expire in 2019, was being explored. (Bloomberg) Oman plans to further develop high-potential limestone industry – Public Authority for Mining Exploration Department Director Hussain Al Zubaidy has said that the limestone industry in Oman has immense potential. Hence, there are plans to develop it further and target new export markets. He said there are huge reserves of limestone in Oman, with the best limestone being found in Salalah. (Gulfbase.com) Gulf Hotels not to raise stake in BFLC – Gulf Hotels Group has said that it has decided not to pursue its plan to increase its shareholding in Bahrain Family Leisure Company (BFLC) due to changes in its business plans. Earlier, Gulf Hotels had expressed an interest to increase its shareholding in BFLC to 51% and had submitted an initial non-binding letter of intent to the board of directors of BFLC. Subsequently, both the parties had also signed an MoU to evaluate the viability of the transaction. (Bahrain Bourse) Fitch revises Bahrain’s outlook to negative – Fitch Ratings has revised Bahrain’s outlook to negative from stable and affirmed its long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDR) at ‘BBB-’ and ‘BBB’, respectively. The issue ratings on Bahrain’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at ‘BBB-’ and ‘BBB’, respectively. The agency has simultaneously affirmed Bahrain’s country ceiling at ‘BBB+’ and short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘F3’. Fitch forecasts a wider double-digit deficit of 12.5% of the GDP in 2015 and 10.7% of the GDP in 2016, remaining in high single digits by 2017, up from 5.5% of GDP in 2014. The rating agency has forecasted a favorable growth of 3.3% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016 and 2017, somewhat below 4.5% in 2014 as oil production remained flat in 2015. (Reuters) CBB urges Bahraini Islamic banks to seek mergers – Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) Governor Rasheed Al Maraj has made a renewed call to Bahraini Islamic banks to merge or acquire other institutions. He said given a tougher regulatory environment,
6. Page 6 of 7 challenges to their business model and increased competition from Islamic as well as conventional competitors, the preferred path, particularly for Islamic investment banks, was to merge in order to create institutions of size. Al Maraj said CBB is introducing a centralized Shari’ah board with a broad mandate. The board’s scope of work will include overseeing product development by Islamic financial institutions and Islamic windows, strengthening Shari’ah compliance, providing guidance to the CBB in issuing rules and regulations for the sector, providing guidance to the courts in legal cases involving Islamic financial institutions and acting as the Shari’ah board for the CBB. (Gulfbase.com)
7. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Manager – HNWI Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 7 of 7 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*Value as of December 01, 2015, **Values as of November 30, 2015) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns) 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 QSEIndex S&P Pan Ar ab S&P GCC (1.1%) (0.7%) (0.3%) 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% (1.8%) (1.2%) (0.6%) 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% SaudiArabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman* AbuDhabi** Dubai** Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%* Gold/Ounce 1,086.84 2.3 2.8 (8.3) MSCI World Index 1,694.78 1.0 (0.3) (0.9) Silver/Ounce 14.56 3.2 3.2 (7.3) DJ Industrial 17,847.63 2.1 0.3 0.1 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 43.00 (1.9) (4.1) (25.0) S&P 500 2,091.69 2.1 0.1 1.6 Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 39.97 (2.7) (4.2) (25.0) NASDAQ 100 5,142.27 2.1 0.3 8.6 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 2.09 (1.3) 1.5 (30.3) STOXX 600 370.59 (0.7) (1.0) (2.8) LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 42.50 (2.0) (0.9) (13.3) DAX 10,752.10 (0.6) (2.4) (2.0) LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 63.75 (1.5) (0.4) 1.6 FTSE 100 6,238.29 (0.6) (1.8) (7.9) Euro 1.09 (0.5) 2.7 (10.1) CAC 40 4,714.79 (0.6) (1.9) (0.9) Yen 123.11 0.4 0.3 2.8 Nikkei 19,504.48 (2.5) (2.2) 8.4 GBP 1.51 (0.2) 0.5 (3.0) MSCI EM 812.27 (0.9) (1.7) (15.1) CHF 1.00 (0.3) 3.4 (0.2) SHANGHAI SE Composite 3,524.99 (1.9) 2.6 5.7 AUD 0.73 (0.0) 2.0 (10.2) HANG SENG 22,235.89 (0.8) 0.8 (5.8) USD Index 98.35 0.8 (1.7) 9.0 BSE SENSEX 25,638.11 (0.8) (1.7) (11.7) RUB 68.04 0.8 2.4 12.0 Bovespa 45,360.76 (2.3) 0.2 (35.9) BRL 0.27 0.2 2.5 (29.4) RTS 811.72 (1.8) (5.2) 2.7 122.9 108.0 105.7