Published on February 28, 2008
Slide1: Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update April 2006 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President Slide2: Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis & ATA U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth = Forecast Slide3: Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA Manufacturing Production Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast 3.3%-3.8% Slide4: Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce & ATA Business Investment Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast Slide5: Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce & ATA Personal Consumption Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast Slide6: Trucking Volumes & Revenues Slide7: Source: ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index For-Hire Truck Tonnage Year-to-Year Percent Change in ATA’s Truck Tonnage Index Slide8: Sources: ATA ATA’s Truck Revenue Index 2000=100; Through Feb. 2006 Slide9: Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2016 Freight Transportation Tonnage Domestic Freight; Total Increase from 2005 to 2016 Slide10: Capacity Slide11: Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report Growth in Truckload Capacity Increase in Number of Power Units in 2005 Slide12: Capacity Most of the current purchases are REPLACEMENTS…the fleet was getting old. External factors are influencing sales – pre-buy for 2007. Some capacity being added, but not in significant quantities. Slide13: Capacity Conclusion Supply/Demand balance should continue to tilt towards motor carriers for the foreseeable future Slide14: The Driver Shortage Slide15: Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA Growth in Trucking Measures Average Annual Growth; 2004-2014; Long-Haul Driver Demand/Supply Slide16: Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA Driver Shortage Long-haul TL Drivers Highway Congestion 1998All Vehicles: Highway Congestion 1998 All Vehicles Highway Congestion 2020All Vehicles: Highway Congestion 2020 All Vehicles Slide19: Fuel Prices Slide20: Sources: Department of Energy & ATA National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price ($/Gallon) Today: ≈ $2.76 EIA April Forecast: Q1 2006: $2.50 Q2: $2.65 Q3: $2.59 Q4: $2.60 2006: $2.59 Slide21: Source: ATA Trucking’s Annual Cost for Diesel (Billions of US$) Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Slide22: Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA Trucking Failures vs. the Price of Diesel Fuel Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks Slide23: Thanks!