Bain eng

Information about Bain eng

Published on December 5, 2007

Author: Goldie

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Toll Road Forecasting Risk: Study Review & Update 2003:  Toll Road Forecasting Risk: Study Review & Update 2003 Robert Bain Associate, Infrastructure Finance Ratings Standard & Poor’s, London Global Development Learning Network on Road Financing Session 2: Scope for Private Sector Finance The World Bank, Washington DC Toll Road Forecasting Risk:  Toll Road Forecasting Risk Highlights from the 2002 research In the interim… 2003 Results Data disaggregation Error drivers (updated) The key role of GDP assumptions Future forecasting challenges 2002 Research: Highlights:  2002 Research: Highlights 32 toll case studies (retrospective on forecast performance) toll roads, bridges & tunnels user-paid & shadow tolls international review of forecast performance versus outturn results Key findings Systematic errors (optimism bias) Supported by other studies Error-drivers Development of Traffic Risk Index Guidelines for stress testing Traffic Risk Index (page 1 of 3):  Traffic Risk Index (page 1 of 3) In The Interim…:  In The Interim… Traffic Risk Index being used for risk assessment/communication Continue to collate toll road traffic forecasting data Industry participants offered additional data All data employed = second-sourced Continue to compile/research reasons for forecast inaccuracy Now have 67 case studies (and growing) Analysis supports earlier conclusions Allows for disaggregated data analysis 2003 Results:  2003 Results 32  67 Case Studies Mean remains unchanged @ ~ 70% Spread increased. Range now: 18% - 146% ! Data Disaggregation: Tolling Experience:  Data Disaggregation: Tolling Experience No tolling experience: actual traffic = 56% of forecast Tolling experience: actual traffic = 87% of forecast (with narrower ‘spread’) Error Drivers (2002 + 2003):  Error Drivers (2002 + 2003) High toll tariffs and a miscalculation regarding users’ WTP: especially frequent users (ie. commuters) Recession/economic downturn Future-year land use scenarios that never transpired Time savings less than expected Improvements to competitive (toll-free) routes Less usage by trucks Less off-peak and/or weekend traffic Sheer complexity of the deal (hence modelling process) Underestimate of ramp-up period (severity and duration) Underestimate of Value of Time (use of average figures) Longer-term traffic forecasts very sensitive to GDP assumptions Compound Impact of Alternative GDP Assumptions:  Compound Impact of Alternative GDP Assumptions +57% +149% Future Forecasting Challenges:  Future Forecasting Challenges Point-of-use charging in developing/transitioning economies Ability to pay/willingness to pay Toll collection technologies Reliability, take-up, back-office etc. Sophisticated pricing Discounts (frequent user programmes, resident discount schemes), peak/off-peak pricing, day-of-week, season-of-year, etc. Value/congestion pricing (by level-of-service) – dynamic? Urban congestion charging All of the above…and more!! Contact Details:  Contact Details Robert Bain [email protected] +44 20 7826 3520

Related presentations


Other presentations created by Goldie

TGIF introduction
17. 12. 2007
0 views

TGIF introduction

BCSWC Ed presentation
31. 12. 2007
0 views

BCSWC Ed presentation

KUCS
27. 11. 2007
0 views

KUCS

serviciodetaxi141
30. 11. 2007
0 views

serviciodetaxi141

EtruscanWomen
30. 10. 2007
0 views

EtruscanWomen

lecture07
02. 11. 2007
0 views

lecture07

TurkishStraits
05. 11. 2007
0 views

TurkishStraits

how to succeed in an interview
15. 11. 2007
0 views

how to succeed in an interview

IditarodFacts
16. 11. 2007
0 views

IditarodFacts

gerth van wijk
06. 12. 2007
0 views

gerth van wijk

Lecture Two
17. 12. 2007
0 views

Lecture Two

ColdFusiontoFlexSupe rWizard
28. 11. 2007
0 views

ColdFusiontoFlexSupe rWizard

Seth
29. 12. 2007
0 views

Seth

Deculturalization How Why
02. 01. 2008
0 views

Deculturalization How Why

yoe
03. 01. 2008
0 views

yoe

wheedleton
03. 01. 2008
0 views

wheedleton

EuroLogo2007
04. 01. 2008
0 views

EuroLogo2007

Lecture 4 2005
07. 01. 2008
0 views

Lecture 4 2005

zilles
07. 01. 2008
0 views

zilles

DNO IMA Transition Plan
30. 10. 2007
0 views

DNO IMA Transition Plan

promotions
11. 12. 2007
0 views

promotions

sav ch08
30. 12. 2007
0 views

sav ch08

Classificação
28. 12. 2007
0 views

Classificação

230 Class8
20. 02. 2008
0 views

230 Class8

Terry Hilsberg e Learning
24. 02. 2008
0 views

Terry Hilsberg e Learning

lect12
27. 02. 2008
0 views

lect12

Explorerhiddenslide
27. 03. 2008
0 views

Explorerhiddenslide

planet tute
13. 11. 2007
0 views

planet tute

heat health warning system
29. 10. 2007
0 views

heat health warning system

BaroneComm1
29. 10. 2007
0 views

BaroneComm1

lecnew05 11
03. 12. 2007
0 views

lecnew05 11

Sophie Dawson
31. 10. 2007
0 views

Sophie Dawson

ch14 1406
12. 12. 2007
0 views

ch14 1406

Fabio
16. 11. 2007
0 views

Fabio

flex wilhagen en
31. 10. 2007
0 views

flex wilhagen en

IEE Lec6
12. 11. 2007
0 views

IEE Lec6

SigRes HoughtonR Jan2004
26. 10. 2007
0 views

SigRes HoughtonR Jan2004

chap03
02. 01. 2008
0 views

chap03

Jayant
23. 11. 2007
0 views

Jayant

evans
01. 10. 2007
0 views

evans

Eskilstuna PJ
06. 11. 2007
0 views

Eskilstuna PJ

Subsea experience
07. 11. 2007
0 views

Subsea experience

Hanson DOCS
28. 12. 2007
0 views

Hanson DOCS

document859
20. 11. 2007
0 views

document859

talk2
14. 11. 2007
0 views

talk2