Beaulieu

Information about Beaulieu

Published on April 10, 2008

Author: Mahugani

Source: authorstream.com

Content

March 2006:  March 2006 “Projecting When Business Cycles Will Change” Presented By: The Institute for Trend Research Brian Beaulieu [email protected] www.ecotrends.org US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index:  US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Here today Tipping Points- Hard Landing – 2009-2010 Debt Interest Rates Demographics Inflation Inventories China – WTO Elections Oil Home Prices US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices:  US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data Trends:  US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data Trends Exports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services:  Exports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services Source: IMF 10.1 5.9 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.4 9.4 5.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 US Germany China Japan France UK Italy Canada 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Slide8:  China Today and Tomorrow (Aka The Dirty Dozen) Social Costs vs. Infrastructure Skilled Labor Raw Materials $5 fresh capital to $1 incremental output Relational Government FDI – SARS – No Guarantees Banking System Negative Demographics Floating the Yuan Global Competitiveness WTO EU denied China Market Status Pollution 7 of the 10 most polluted cities Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data Trend:  Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data Trend GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures:  GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures Example: Revenue 12MMT:  Example: Revenue 12MMT Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 1.47 1.51 1.65 1.75 1.76 1.64 1.71 1.74 1.54 1.44 1.24 1.26 1.74 12MMT: 3MMT = 4.63 3MMT = 5.14 3MMT = 4.98 3MMT = 4.22 3MMT = 3.95 3MMT = 4.24 12MMT = 17.54 12MMT = 18.54 12MMT = 18.70 12MMT = 18.97 8.2% RATE-OF-CHANGE :  ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/06 ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 1/12 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/06 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 3/12 = 12/12 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/06 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/05 RATE-OF-CHANGE US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change:  US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Company L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Company L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change China Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  China Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change India Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-Change:  India Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-Change US to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends:  US to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Indicator Sequence:  Indicator Sequence Four Phases:  Four Phases Slide24:  Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Start to phase out marginal opportunities 2. Build inventories in the system 3. Continue placing capital equipment orders 4. Hire "top" people 5. Implement training programs 6. Add sales staff 7. Introduce new product lines 8. Begin advertising and sales promotions 9. Implement plans for facilities' expansion 10. Update standard costs Phase Late A - Recovery: Slide25:  Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Accelerate training 2. Continue to build inventory 3. Increase prices 4. Find the answers to “what next” 5. Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal resources becoming tight 6. Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks 7. Open distribution centers 8. Use improved cash flow for corporate governance. Phase Early B - Growth: Slide26:  Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Stay in stock 2. Penetrate new OEM accounts 3. Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets 4. Begin missionary efforts into new markets 5. Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle looks recessionary 6. Freeze all expansion plans in current core business units 7. Spin off undesirable operations 8. Stay realistic – beware linear budgets 9. Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum “goodwill” Phase Late B Early C - Prosperity: Slide27:  Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Begin work force reductions 2. Reduce advertising 3. Cut training 4. Weed out inferior products 5. Reduce inventories 6. Avoid long-term purchase commitments – late in the price cycle 7. Set budget reduction goals by dept. 8. Encourage distributors to decrease inventory 9. Concentrate on cash and the balance sheet 10. De-Emphasize commodity products/services in anticipation of diminishing margins Phase Late C - Warning: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data Trends:  US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data Trends US Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change General Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data Trends:  General Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data Trends US Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-Change Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change Interest Rate Comparison:  Interest Rate Comparison Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends :  Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw Data:  Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw Data US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Corporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Corporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change M2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison :  M2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100:  U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100 12MMA Actual 12/12 1/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Purchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Purchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-Change:  ITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-Change New Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data Trends:  New Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data Trends Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$:  Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$ 12MMT 3MMT 3/12 12/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Higher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Higher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-Change Housing Starts to Inventory Ratio:  Housing Starts to Inventory Ratio Casino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Casino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-Change US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data Trends:  US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data Trends Fed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data Trends:  Fed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data Trends Consumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Consumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change:  Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change GDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP:  GDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP

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