BEFxii Coronado

Information about BEFxii Coronado

Published on April 9, 2008

Author: funnyside

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Slide1:  Texas–Mexico Border Economy Roberto Coronado Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas El Paso Branch Border Energy Forum XII October 13, 2005 Santa Fe, NM The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or of the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. May be quoted with appropriate attribution to the author. Slide2:  Have common features as border cities, features that also make them different from other U.S. cities Impacted by changes in national policies such as minimum wage, trade, and environment Border adapts quickly to change, ex: security post 9-11 A large transportation and distribution sector due to international traffic A large retail sector inflated by serving goods to two cities A large government sector because of border enforcement and public programs that address high poverty levels Common Features of Texas Border Cities Slide3:  Different economic indicators can cause confusion about the underlying direction of the economy. We combine the movements in employment, wages, retail sales, and the unemployment rate in a statistically optimal way to define the underlying direction of the economy. The long-term trends in the indexes are set to equal growth in the metros’ real personal income. Dallas Fed Border Business Cycle Indexes Slide4:  Texas border economies similar, yet different Index, Oct-80 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Slide5:  South Texas Border Strong in Recent Years Index, Jan-00 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Slide6:  Border MSAs Driven by Factors Other than Macro Economies Why has South Texas done well? Why has El Paso lagged in recent years? Hard to decipher individual impacts but we looked at oil prices, trade flows, maquiladora employment and real value of peso Bottom line! El Paso hurt by strong ties to the maquiladora recession, South Texas supported by strong peso Slide7:  El Paso Follows Maquiladora Industry Source: INEGI and Dallas Fed Employment, 000s, SA Index, Oct-80=100 Slide8:  Maquiladora Employment Mirroring US IP Source: INEGI and Federal Reserve Board Employment, 000s, SA Index, Oct-80=100 Slide9:  Maquiladora Growth Feeds Back Into Texas Cities in Many Ways In general, a 10% increase in maquiladora activity in Mexican border cities Leads to a 1.1% to 2.0% employment increase in U.S. border cities side 2.1% to 2.7% in wholesale trade 1.7% to 2.7% in transportation 1.2% to 2.1% in manufacturing 1.0% to 1.8% in retail trade “U.S.–Mexico Integration and Regional Economies: Evidence from Border-City Pairs“ Gordon H. Hanson Journal of Urban Economics, 2001 Slide10:  Has this relationship changed? Slide11:  Exchange Rate Impacts the Valley More than El Paso Index, Oct-80 = 100 Slide12:  Source: author’s calculations. City Pairs Combined: Location Quotients for City Pairs on U.S. –Mexico Base (LQ>1.05) 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.8 Slide13:  Peso still strong–Brownsville, McAllen and Laredo doing well Maquiladoras growing at a good pace(3-5%)–ytd about 20,000 new jobs (Texas-Mexico border responsible for 60%) Texas, US, and Mexico likely to continue moderate pace of growth Stability of peso (float) since mid-1990s suggests more stable southern border economy Outlook for Border–Continued Strength

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