bethers

Information about bethers

Published on January 17, 2008

Author: Melissa1

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Slide1:  REMARKS ON MODELS & MODELLING Uldis Bethers Laboratory for mathematical modelling of environmental and technological processes (LMMETP) University of Latvia www.modlab.lv [email protected] Modelling: from art to production Simpliest complex questions when models come around “Modelling of resources and processes in reservoir systems”, 2002-2005 Distributed hydrological model of Aiviekste river basin – next presentation Slide2:  Classic scheme of mathematical modelling (numerical modelling, simulation etc.) The classic scheme is typically used in academia (Universities); modeler is an artist personalising all players Slide3:  New players have entered the scene... and production starts Academia has lost dominance in modelling business. Is it jealous? Do the new players know what is models/modelling? (Should we care?) Do the new players know their roles? Slide4:  What do I get when somebody claims he is selling (presenting) me model? All of above ! (How often smthg is missing ) Principles (equations, their solving method) Software as interface to do modelling Input data. Model customisation for MY process/object Post processing. Visualisation, decision support tools Slide5:  What the model will do for me? PROCESS STUDY. Investigation of functioning rules of particular part of the complex [encironmental] system. Forcing data – representative (typicla/critical) conditions. Modelling – the tool of gaining knowledge. CASE STUDY. Assessment of impact of particular change in system (antropogenic or natural). Forcing data – representative (typical/critical) conditions. Modelling – the tool of evaluation. OPERATIONAL MODELLING. Real time modelling of the system. Assimilation of the observation data to produce the state-of-art and limited forecast. Forcing data – actual conditions. Modelling – the tool of representing actual conditions and trends. PROGNOSTIC STUDY. Assessment of the complex change (trend) in the system and/or the forcing conditions. Forcing data – scenarious of change in the representative (typical/critical) conditions. Modelling – the tool of prediction. Slide6:  We have models. May we reduce/stop monitoring? No. We must understand which part of our measurements are model input (forcing) data and which part matches the model output (results) The models may require the assimilation of data. Both nature and models contain uncertainties. The models contain our knowledge and as such will always be limited. Development and subsequent calibration/verification will need field data. Comparison of model/observation data is great for quality control of measurements and development of monitoring strategy. Disagreement of model/observation results may indicate the unknown changes in the system (eg. In land use) Slide7:  We have the best model. Is it forever? No. “The best” is relative... the one which suits our needs and possibilities better. Changes in our reponsibilities/capacities will change the model. The better process understanding/description may appear. The uncertainty in input data may reduce. The new sources of input data may appear. The number crunching power will certainly rise. Slide8:  NEW CHALLENGE The above considerations were OK 5-10 years ago around the turn of millenium – in “information society”. What shall we expect stepping into “knowledge society”? Models and modelling nowadays transform into plug-ins of the information technology systems (ITS) managing information flows and producing decision support. ITS comprises data collection (observations), data mining (in databanks), data interfacing and routing (betwen varios models), transforming (via modelling), visualising and delivery to the desktop in end-user-friendly fashion via end-user-specific interface. Let us be proud - modelling of catchment hydrology and water quality issues is at the frontier of this transition of understanding about the role of models MODELLING OF RESOURCES AND PROCESSES IN RESERVOIR SYSTEM:  Research grant by Latvian science foundation “Modelling of resources and processes in reservoir system”, 2002-2005 The academic project was realised in co-operation of LMMETP, UL Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, UL Institute of Biology Latvian University of Agriculture MODELLING OF RESOURCES AND PROCESSES IN RESERVOIR SYSTEM Goal: create and demonstrate a vision for the ITS addressing hydraulic/hydrological/water quality issues Slide10:  Structure of modelling system (for model of river hydraulics/ecosystem) Slide11:  Modular structure of the modelling system for river/reservoir ecosystem Slide12:  Demonstration challenge: development of modelling system which would integrate in the boundaries of the river basin multidisciplinary models (run-off, groundwater filtration, river hydraulics, ecosystem...) models of different (required) temporal/spatial scales models of different (required) dimensions(0-3D) required modelling approaches (process/case studies, assessment of alternative environmental/engineering measures, real time modelling) Slide13:  Vision of the IT solutien assumes operational modelling system and information flows and data analysis tools which in the river basin is capable to assimilate all observation data provides temporal and spatial distribution distribution of hydraulic and ecosystem paramters assesses status quo and provides limited forecast provides real-time access of the modelling results (incl. visualisation and analysis possibilities) for the end users Provides answer on : WHAT HAPPENS IN MY RIVER BASIN? If River basin authorities share such approach implementing EC WFD then the information system development is a sort of priority (particular models cn be plugged in/out according to specific needs) Slide14:  Longitudinal profile, water level and discharge of the River Daugava during typical summer low-flow Slide16:  2D modelling results: velocity (left) and COD (right) Slide17:  Model domain Slide18:  Model domain: DTM Slide20:  Temperaturas (C) distribution in the longitudinal section of the reservoir of Pļaviņas HPP. June/2002. Slide21:  Expeditions VI-VIII/2002: Dissolved oxygen distribution in longitudinal-section: VI - above VIII - below Slide22:  Expedition VIII/2002: Velocity distribution in cross-section: near Plavinas - above near Koknese - below Slide23:  GROUNDWATER The major problems of groundwater hydrology in Latvia are related to (a) change of groundwater table due water consumption; (b) pollution of aquifers by leakage from waste deposits; (c) operation of underground gas reservoir in Inčukalns; (d) filtration processes nearby the reservoirs of hydropower plants (HPP). Slide24:  Vertical section along the powerhouse (left); hydraulic head and filtration direction in Devonian Amata aquifer (right)

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