BethkeA

Information about BethkeA

Published on October 2, 2007

Author: Lucianna

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Severe Convective Storms An Overview:  Severe Convective Storms An Overview Part 2 – Rebecca Bethke Severe Convective Storms An Overview:  Severe Convective Storms An Overview Doswell C.A. III, 2001: Severe Convective Storms – An Overview Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13-26 General Outline:  General Outline Severe Convection - classification, problems, issues - distinction between non- and severe convection Observations of Severe Convection - large-scale - mesoscale Prediction of Severe Convection - current accuracy - goals for severe convective storm forecasting, to mitigate threats Severe Convection Classification and problems:  Severe Convection Classification and problems >=3/4 in. hail >=50 knot sustained wind gusts Tornado Should the average hail size and wind gust be reported as “severe” instead of the single largest size reported? Precipitation not officially defined beyond severe Flash floods and heavy rain consideration must include areas’ hydrological circumstances Hales 2-tiered system for severe thresholds Observations of Severe Convection Large-Scale:  Observations of Severe Convection Large-Scale Rawinsonde observations are primary PROBLEMS: - significant gaps worldwide - limiting analysis to the few “oubreak” events Fig 10: Chart idealizing significant synoptic features in an outbreak of severe convective storms Observations of Severe Convection:  Observations of Severe Convection Ingredients-based approach conditional instability moisture a source of lift V.S. Characteristic pattern alone Observations of Severe Convection Mesoscale:  Observations of Severe Convection Mesoscale Satellite images (qualitative) Radar, limited Important aspect: Convective Outflow Processes free “internal” instabilities forced “external” processes fronts gravity waves Prediction of Severe Convection ~Current accuracy levels:  Prediction of Severe Convection ~Current accuracy levels Progress Advances in forecasting severe storms and tornadoes, SEE FIG. 12 Increased prediction accuracy Better public awareness and communication Frustrations Not as much attention to non tornadic events Flash floods/heavy convection not offically “severe” Hail formation and short-range forecasts Prediction of Severe Convection ~Lessening the threats posed:  Prediction of Severe Convection ~Lessening the threats posed Needed outside North America systemic reporting A way to including events in climatological database sufficient planning for possible severe events in area’s where threat is rare public awareness, appropriate reactions Prospects and Unsolved Problems:  Prospects and Unsolved Problems Forecasting Improvements in observing systems (ie radar) and related forecasting systems Difficulties/ less progress Tornadic vs nontornadic supercell differentiation Forecasting nonsupercell tornado situations System to forecast and mitigate flash flood damage Prospects and Unsolved Problems:  Prospects and Unsolved Problems Weather Modification possibilities Public appeal Lack of many severe convective weather processes New Observations Doppler RADARs are likely only a beginning Dual polarization observations possible Satellite remote sensor improvements Economic difficulties Severe Convection Final thoughts :  Severe Convection Final thoughts Mesoscale and smaller events “Chaotic” systems Important unobservables Resources needed Severe Convective Storms:  Severe Convective Storms This is the paradox of all science: we are both excited and frustrated by what we do not know, even as we create new understanding”. - Charles A Doswell III, May 2000

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