Bullion Weekly Technical Advice of Commodity Advisory Services

Information about Bullion Weekly Technical Advice of Commodity Advisory Services

Published on May 18, 2014

Author: speak2earth

Source: authorstream.com

Content

PowerPoint Presentation: Bu l l ion W eekly T e c h nic a l A dvice of Co mm o d i ty A dvisory S e rvic es G old Comm o di t y in t h e last w eek a n d as of Fr iday a d vi c e of Comm o di t y A d vi s o ry Se rvi ces t h e most a c tive go l d f u tu r e c on tra c t fo r J u ne d elive r y at C O MEX is seen t r a d i ng at $ 1 2 91 no c ha n g e f rom i t s p revi o us w eek w hile in Ind i an mar k e t t h e p rices h ave reac hed t o R s . 2 8 0 0 0 / 10 gra m s do w n b y 1. 5 0%. At t he glo b al f r o n t t h e p a r ti c i pa tion w as low as mixed b ag fu l l of d a ta w e r e released acro ss t h e gl obe w hile t h e 1 0 year T bil l s Yield s to o d at 2.5 0% d o w n b y 3.7 0% f rom i ts previo u s w ee k . We may also beli e ve du e to fall in t he US y i eld t h e f all in gold p rices w ere restrict e d w hile locally g old p rices c o r r ect e d do w n d ue to I ndi a n r u p ee a p p re c ia t i o n. D uri n g th e w eek Indian r u p ee a p p re c ia t ed over 2% from its p revio u s w ee k ’s c lose w hile the Ind ia n gover n m e n t hi k ed th e im p o r t tar i ff p rice f r o m $ 4 22 to $ 4 2 4. B esi d e, t h e I n dian r u p e e a p p re c i a ti o n n ew gove r n ment f o rmi n g in I ndia i s gi v i n g hop e th a t so o n in n ear f u ture t he go l d im p o r t d u ty w hi c h is n ow at 1 0% may d ecli n e by at l east 2%. In this re g ard w e m ay see go l d p rices tr a di n g lower a t t h e local mar k et w hi l e t he fall in t he glo b al m a r k et may rema i n less as lo n g as t he Y i eld in t he US st ays lower. F r o m t he d e m a n d f r o n t, th e i n v es t ment d em a nd st ays m u t e d a t 7 8 0 + tons at th e SPD R g old tr u s t w hile ph ys i c al deman d from China a n d I n d i a c on ti n u es t o b e l o w er. A n o t h er f actor w hi c h may k eep gold p r i c es lower is th e d ecli n i n g j oble s s c laims n u m b er i n th e U S w hi c h is c u r r e n tly a t 7 years l o w . Also , Russi a -U k rai n e t e n si o n is n o t m u c h of t al k ed t h ese d a ys so possibly t h e c o m m odi t y gold may rema i n u nd e r t o n e in t h e n e x t w ee k . O v erall, w e w ish to ta k e mo re b eari s h st a n ce on gold a t t h e lo c al mar ke t w hi l e g l obal gold mi g h t decli ne b u t t he p ace c ould be lower News : CME c u t t he a m ou n t o f c oll a teral re q u i red to trade th e b e n chmark gold a nd silver fu t u res co n tra c ts dur i n g th e nig h t . CME , w hi c h possess t he Comex divi s ion of t he New Y o rk Merca n tile Ex c ha n ge, tr immed g old margi n s b y 7 .7% e f f ective c lo se o f tr a di n g F ri d a y. Te n ta ti v e i n vestors i n t h e b e n c h m ark 1 0 0 - troy o u n ce gold c on tract c a n no w d e p o sit $ 6, 6 00 t o o pen a positi o n a nd m ai ntain $ 6,0 00 of t h at to k e e p t h at loca t i on du r i n g th e n i gh t . T h a t 's do w n f rom th e p re c e di n g i ni t ial fr i n ge of $ 7 , 1 5 0 a nd ma i n t e na n ce m a rgin o f $6 ,50 0. T h e i n i tial a nd mai n t e na n ce margin r e q u irem e n ts fo r p r o du c ers o r c on s u mers of g old have b e e n r e d u c e d to $ 6,0 0 0 f rom $ 6, 5 0 0 . T r a di n g m argi n s on t h e ya r dsti c k 5, 0 0 0 - oun ce silv e r f u t u res co n tra c t be slash 8.3 p erc e nt. G old J un e MCX f u t u res p rices fell sh a r ply in t h e l a st w ee k . As of 16 May, 2 0 1 4 p r i c es are c losi n g at 2 8 0 8 9, do w n b y - 1. 5% f rom t he p revi o us we ek c lose ( 11 : 30 PM IST). Pri c es are exp e c ted t o c on ti n u e th e sa m e t r e n d fo r t he w eek a h ead. I n i t ially w e mig h t see a high er r ecovery b e fo r e resumi n g i t s d o w n t r e n d. A s ti f f resist a n ce is se e n a t 2 8 3 95 ( 2 3 .6% r e tr a ceme nt o f th e r a n g e PowerPoint Presentation: 3 0 4 2 1- 2 7 7 7 0), w hi c h is exp ect e d t o hold t h e d o w nsid e vie w . D o w nsid e po t e n t i al is s een u n til 2 7 7 7 0 levels ( p revi o us l o w) . Fo r sho rt t erm trade r s w e su ggest selli n g at h i gh er le v els Gold M c x Tra d i n g Levels fo r th e We e k Tre n d : Do w n S u p p o rt at 2 7 7 0 0 - 2 7 2 0 0 Resi sta n ce a t 2 8 5 0 0- 2 8 9 00 Si lv e r Commod i ty w e h ad a sell i n g bias i n t h e c ommodi t y a l on g w i t h gold last w eek ami d s t w ea k er set of d em a nd c u es f o r t h e B ulli o n c o m plex glo b ally. As o f t h e l a t est qu o te on Fr i d ay, prices f o r active J u ly c o n tract at Comex are tr a di ng hig h er b y 1.35% to $ 1 9 .38 p er o u n ce t h ou g h in th e local mar ke ts w e saw good decl i n e in t h e ra n ge of 1% l ed b y h e al t h y a p p re c i a tion i n th e c ommodi t y past w ee k . B e t t e r p e r fo r ma n ce dur ing th e i n t ern a ti o nal mar k e ts w as p r o ba b ly w as p rom pt e d b y b et ter p e r f o rmance i n t h e i n d ustri a l me tals f r o n t w h e r ein a l most all m e tals a d ded w eig h t exce p t Ni c k el in th e LME. Whi l e t h ere w ere go o d am o u n t of ups a n d do w n d uri n g t he past w eek in t h e c o m m odi t y, f r esh rou nd o f t e nsio n s in earli er half o f t h e w eek in U k rai n e region p ush e d bull i on i. e . b o th go l d a nd silver hi g h er as a sa fe h eav e n co m p lex aga i nst reg i on a l un ce r tainty. O v erall t ho ugh as w e k eep ou r G old view on t h e w ea k er sid e in t h e n ext w ee k , o u r b road er f a c tors f o r silv e r too poi n t to w ar d s ex te nd e d w ea k n ess in th e c ommod i ty in th e n ext w ee k . As also st a ted a b o ve, ETF a n d p h ys i c al co nsum pti o n c o n ti n u es to lack f resh boo s t. T he Is h are i n ve s tm e n t hol d i n g fo r silver c omm o di t y has b e en s ta b l e f o r la s t t w o w ee k s w i t h no c ha n ge in i nst i t u ti o nal h ol d i n gs. Whi l e t h e risk f a c tor agai n s t o u r w eak bias in t he c omm o di t y i s exte n d ed rise in b ase me tals p ac k , w e f eel l oc al MCX Silver p rices w ould c o n ti n u e to b e w eig h ed b y o ngoi n g a pp re c i a tion in t h e I NR. We a dvi c e t ra d ers t o i n i t ia t e sh o r ts i n th e c ommodi t y d uri n g t he co mi n g w ee k , p a r ti c ul a rly a t t h e do m es tic f ron t on p ull b ac k s . Si lv e r J uly MCX f u t u res p rices decl i n ed in t h e la s t w eek b y e x te n di n g t he p revi o us t re n d. As o f 16 M ay, 2 0 14 p rices a r e c loses at 4 0 894, do w n b y -1 . 2% f rom t he p rev i ous w eek c lose ( 1 1 : 3 0 PM IST). Pri c es h ave b r eac h ed t he su p po r t a t 4 1 2 0 0 ( p revi o us l o w ) a nd c u r r e n tly ho v e ri n g bel o w t he same is sign a li n g f u r t h er d o w nsid e p o te n tial. N ext st r on g s u ppo r t is se e n at 4 0 5 0 0 levels. A sign i fi c a n t b r e a k bel o w 4 0 5 0 0 co uld l e ad t h e d r o p t o ex t e n d t o w ar d s 4 0 2 0 0 - 3 9 8 00 levels. We mig h t see a h i gh er c o rre c tion b e fo r e r es u mi n g i ts d o w n t r e n d. Fo r sho r t term tr a d ers w e su ggest s e lli n g a t hi g h er l evels Silver M c x T r a d i n g Levels fo r t h e W eek Tre n d : Do w n S u p p o rt at 4 0 0 0 0 - 3 9 2 0 0 Resi sta n ce a t 4 1 8 0 0- 4 2 8 00 We e k ly Ti p s of C om mo d i ty Advi s o r y S e rvic es Gold M c x J u ne Sell o n R i se n ear 2 8 2 5 0 - 2 8 3 0 0 sl 2 8 5 20 T gt 2 7 9 2 0-2 7 7 0 0 Silver M c x J uly Sell On R i se n ear 4 1 2 0 0- 4 1 3 5 0 sl 4 2 0 00 T gt 4 0 5 0 0 - 3 9 8 0 0

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