Cameron SAS44 A Century of OA
A Century of Operational Analysis for Commanders in the Canadian Army: A Century of Operational Analysis for Commanders in the Canadian Army Fred Cameron Operational Research Advisor Land Force Doctrine and Training Systems Headquarters Kingston, Ontario +1-613-541-5010 X8719 [email protected] Aspects of Decision Support for Commanders: Aspects of Decision Support for Commanders Canadian input on the current status of direct analysis support to commanders Comments on: General principles for successful analysis support to commanders The training and experience that is required of analysts who give direct advice to military commanders Watson-Watt’s Definition of Operational Research: Watson-Watt’s Definition of Operational Research ‘... an investigation carried out, by scientific method, on actual operations, current, recent or impending, at the request of those responsible for the initiation or conduct of the operations...’ ‘... explicitly directed to the better, more effective and more economical conduct of similar operations in the future.’ Saul Gass’s Definition of Operational Research: Saul Gass’s Definition of Operational Research ‘... a scientific approach to decision making. You’re applying mathematical and other techniques to decision problems in all areas – business, industry, government, and the military.’ – From OR/MS Today, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Dec 2001. Gass is co-editor of Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Four Case Studies: Four Case Studies The Canadian Corps, Battle of Vimy Ridge, Northwest Europe, 1917 First Canadian Army, Northwest Europe, 1944-45 Canadian Infantry Battlegroup, Kosovo, 1999-2000 Canadian Commander, Multi-National Division (Southwest), Bosnia, 2000 First position for the Battle of Vimy. Carency, April 1917 : First position for the Battle of Vimy. Carency, April 1917 Observation balloon. Vimy Front 1917 : Observation balloon. Vimy Front 1917 Destroyed German gun emplacement, result of Canadian guns. J.S. Morrison (seated). 1918 : Destroyed German gun emplacement, result of Canadian guns. J.S. Morrison (seated). 1918 The Battle of Vimy Ridge: The Battle of Vimy Ridge German Army had held Vimy Ridge 1914-17 Three French attacks, without success and loss of 200,000 men 05:30 9 April 1917 the Canadian Corps attacks: Arthur Currie, Commander, 1st Canadian Div Andy McNaughton, CBSO at Corps Many other notables By midday Vimy Ridge is secure with 10,000 Canadian casualties General AGL McNaughton PC, CH, CB, CMG, DSO: General AGL McNaughton PC, CH, CB, CMG, DSO Subaltern, Canadian Militia, 1909 MSc, Electrical Engineering, McGill, 1912 Lieutenant Colonel, Royal Canadian Artillery, 1916 Counter-Battery Staff Officer, Canadian Corps, 1917 Chief of the General Staff, 1929 President, National Research Council, 1935 Commander, First Canadian Army, 1942 Minister of National Defence, 1944 Member, UN Atomic Energy Commission and UN Security Council, 1946 Co-chairman, US-Canada International Joint Commission, 1950 General McNaughton and Unidentified British Politician, Feb 1941: General McNaughton and Unidentified British Politician, Feb 1941 Sources of Intelligence for Counter-Battery Work: Sources of Intelligence for Counter-Battery Work From: ‘Counter Battery Work’ by AGL McNaughton, Canadian Defence Quarterly, July 1926 Some Details: Some Details Counter Battery Schematic: From: ‘Counter Battery Work’ by AGL McNaughton, Canadian Defence Quarterly, July 1926 A System of Systems Counter Battery Schematic Survey Section, with four OPs: Survey Section, with four OPs Sound Ranging System: Listening Post and four Microphone Stations: Sound Ranging System: Listening Post and four Microphone Stations Flash Spotting: Flash Spotting Reference bearing at each OP (d0) Report bearing of flash from theodolite Synchronize with system of lights Report synchronized bearings by phone The ‘Sound-Ranging’ Scientists: The ‘Sound-Ranging’ Scientists Sir William Lawrence Bragg Nobel prize in physics, 1915 Director, National Physical Laboratory, 1937-38 Cavendish Professor of Physics at Cambridge, 1938-53 Sir Charles Galton Darwin Grandson of the CD Director, National Physical Laboratory, 1938-49 Scientific Advisor to Army Council in WW II Prof Lucien Bull Sorbonne University Head of l’Institut Marey in Paris Developer of the oscillograph Sound Ranging: G German gun LP Listening post MS Microphone stations SRS Sound Ranging Section Sound Ranging MS about 1.5 miles from front, with LP well forward The Math: The Math Equations 7 and 8 constitute a nonlinear system of two equations in two unknowns. System Characteristics: System Characteristics Accuracy often enemy gun positions to within 25 to 100 yards Latency reports often within three minutes Problems: confusion in a barrage (later overcome) howitzers and guns wind differences in temperature or barometric pressure Latency of three minutes?: Latency of three minutes? No time to solve equations numerically So a graphical method was used: Equations 4, 5, and 6 are hyperbolas Plot asymptotes Approximate location of G at the intersection of asymptotes (using ‘asymptote board’) Adjust using tables Sound Ranging: Activate oscillograph at SRS when LP hears gun fire Each MS is hard wired to a pen on oscillograph Time difference between a pair of MS determines a hyperbola Sound Ranging Sound Ranging: Plot asymtotes initially, then correct for the hyperbola Time differences of microphone pairs: n!/(2(n-2)!) 4 MS 6 hyperbolas Sound Ranging Additional Information: Additional Information Sound of the shell burst Location of target Then: Range of engagement Table look-up for type of ordnance and calibre Back to the Future: Back to the Future Flash Spotting ‘Stansfield’ method of combining bearings in Radio Direction Finding Stansfield, ‘Statistical Theory of DF Fixing’ J Inst Electronic Eng Vol 94, IIIa, No 15, 1947 Combining Bearings with Least Squared Error in 3D - Eigenvalue/eigenvector approach Sound Ranging Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) Return to Vimy Ridge: Return to Vimy Ridge Many factors contributed to victory: Battle planning and battle procedure ‘Commanders’ intents’ down to platoon level Mission rehearsal, including platoon practice on full-scale replicas And ‘Counter-Battery Work’ Features of Operational Analysis Battle of Vimy Ridge, 1917: Features of Operational Analysis Battle of Vimy Ridge, 1917 A ‘champion’ on the staff Focus on practical problems; and ones that are of critical importance to operations Operate in close proximity to the fighting units: Appreciate fundamental characteristics of the problem Recognize constraints on potential solutions that are not obvious from a distance Montgomery’s Scientists* Support for First Canadian Army 1944-45: Montgomery’s Scientists* Support for First Canadian Army 1944-45 No 2 ORS formed from a collaboration between Charles Darwin (SA Army Council) and Basil Schonland (SA at 21 Army Group HQ) Active in Northwest Europe from D-day to July 1945 * Terry Copp (ed) Montgomery’s Scientists: Operational research in Northwest Europe – the work of No 2 Operational Research Section, June 1944 to July 1945, Wilfrid Laurier University, 2000 Effectiveness of Artillery Support in Op VERITABLE: Effectiveness of Artillery Support in Op VERITABLE Friendly casualties decreases as weight/rounds increases Graph I: Weight of fire Graph II: Number of rounds Some data are ‘outliers’ Increasing number of rounds may be more important than increasing weight of fire Features of Operational Analysis First Canadian Army, 1944-45: Features of Operational Analysis First Canadian Army, 1944-45 WW I lessons re-enforced OR in formed unit ‘Operational readiness’ ‘Reach back’ Joint analysis with other services: Analysis of air-to-ground effectiveness with 2nd Tactical Air Force OR Section KFOR 1999: Pec Kosovska Mitrovica Priština Gnjilane Prizren Albania Montenegro Serbia Macedonia Serbia Kosovo MNB NORTH MNB WEST MNB SOUTH MNB CENTRAL MNB EAST This map reflects deployments in Aug 1999 KFOR 1999 Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light (PPCLI) Infantry Battle Group: Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light (PPCLI) Infantry Battle Group Contact report from combat: ‘Contact, 2 × BMP-2, GR224343, westbound, suspected platoon strength, am engaging, out’ Contact report from PSO: ‘Spotted blue Lada with bent right fender, registration GK 5581, contains suspected Former UCK gunmen from yesterday’s shooting incident’ History of PSO contact reports handled similarly to civilian police agencies Features of Operational Analysis PPCLI Battlegroup, Kosovo, 1999-2000: Features of Operational Analysis PPCLI Battlegroup, Kosovo, 1999-2000 Competent military personnel can develop their own decision-support procedures Computers have become routine tools for many. But cannot expect same standards across a coalition: technical infrastructure, technical skills, interoperable networks Assumption of Command of Multi-National Division (SouthWest), Sep 2000: Assumption of Command of Multi-National Division (SouthWest), Sep 2000 Training for Multi-national Division HQ Staff, Kingston, August 2000: Training for Multi-national Division HQ Staff, Kingston, August 2000 Team building Scenarios to challenge the staff, to build confidence, to develop mutual respect The Canadian Army ‘Decision-Action Cycle’ Incorporates: OPP – Operational Planning Process IPB – Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield COA Analysis – ‘Courses of Action’ Analysis The Canadian Army Decision Making Process: The Canadian Army Decision Making Process The Operational Planning Process: The Operational Planning Process Features of Operational Analysis MND (SouthWest), Bosnia, 2000: Features of Operational Analysis MND (SouthWest), Bosnia, 2000 For decision support, a commander relies first on his staff The ‘decision-action cycle’ is a series of procedures, initially manual procedures, to which computers may be added Sometimes training is the first priority to improve decision making Enduring Features of ‘Direct Support’ Operational Analysis: Enduring Features of ‘Direct Support’ Operational Analysis Prior Presence A ‘Champion’ Mutual Trust Between Supporters and Supported Readiness Intellectual Capacity Technological Capability Uniformed Analysts C3 – Coalition Computer Compatibility Sources: Sources Pierre Berton, Vimy, McClelland and Stewart, Toronto, 1986 Terry Copp (ed) Montgomery’s Scientists: Operational research in northwest Europe – the work of No. 2 Operational Research Section with 21 Army Group, June 1944 to July 1945 Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, 2000 JS Finan and WJ Hurley, ‘McNaughton and Canadian operational research at Vimy’ Journal of the Operational Research Society (1997) 45, 10-14 AGL McNaughton, ‘Counter Battery Work’ Canadian Defence Quarterly, July 1926 John Swettenham, McNaughton, Vol. 1, Ryerson, Toronto, 1968 http://collections.ic.gc.ca/turner/ (Photos from ‘Jack Turner’s War’) Turner photos © Government of Canada, Questions?: Questions?