Ch14 7e

Information about Ch14 7e

Published on April 10, 2008

Author: Lucianna

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Slide1:  THE BUSINESS CYCLE 14 CHAPTER Must What Goes Up Always Come Down?:  Must What Goes Up Always Come Down? In some ways, the 1990s were like the 1920s: rapid economic growth and unprecedented prosperity From 1929 through 1933, real GDP fell 30 percent and the economy entered the Great Depression, which lasted until World War II There have been ten recessions since 1945; must the cycle continue? Cycle Patterns, Impulses, and Mechanisms:  Cycle Patterns, Impulses, and Mechanisms The Central Role of Investment and Capital All theories of the business cycle agree that investment and the accumulation of capital play a crucial role. Recessions begin when investment slows and recessions turn into expansions when investment increases. Investment and capital are crucial parts of cycles, but are not the only important parts. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Three types of aggregate demand theories have been proposed: Keynesian Monetarist Rational expectations Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Keynesian Theory The Keynesian theory of the business cycle regards volatile expectations as the main source of business cycle fluctuations. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Figure 30.1 illustrates a Keynesian recession. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Figure 30.2 illustrates a Keynesian expansion. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Monetarist Theory The monetarist theory of the business cycle regards fluctuations in the quantity of money as the main source of business cycle fluctuations in economic activity. Monetarist Impulse The initial impulse is the growth rate of the money supply. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Figure 30.3 illustrates a Monetarist business cycle. Part (a) shows a recession phase. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Part (b) shows an expansion phase. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Rational Expectations Theories A rational expectation is a forecast based on all the available relevant information. There are two rational expectations theories. The new classical theory of the business cycle regards unanticipated fluctuations in aggregate demand as the main source of economic fluctuations. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle The new Keynesian theory of the business cycle also regards unanticipated fluctuations in aggregate demand as the main source of economic fluctuations but also leaves room for anticipated fluctuations in aggregate demand to play a role. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Figure 30.4 illustrates a rational expectations business cycle. Part (a) shows a recession. Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle:  Aggregate Demand Theories of the Business Cycle Part (b) shows an expansion. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory The real business cycle theory (RBC theory) regards technological change that creates random fluctuations in productivity as the source of the business cycle. The RBC Impulse The impulse in RBC theory is the growth rate of productivity that results from technological change. Growth accounting is used to measure the effects of technological change. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory Figure 30.5 illustrates the RBC Impulse over 1963–2003. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory The RBC Mechanism Two immediate effects follow from a change in productivity Investment demand changes The demand for labor changes Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory Figure 30.6 illustrates the capital and labor markets in a real business cycle recession. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory A decrease in productivity lowers firms’ profit expectations and decreases both investment demand and the demand for labor. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory The interest rate falls. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory The lower the real interest rate lowers the return from current work so the supply of labor decreases. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory Employment falls by a large amount and the real wage rate falls by a small amount. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory Real GDP and the Price Level The decrease in productivity shifts the LAS curve leftward (there is no SAS curve in the RBC theory). The decrease in investment demand shifts the AD curve leftward. The price level falls and real GDP decreases. Real Business Cycle Theory:  Real Business Cycle Theory Figure 30.7 illustrates the changes in aggregate supply and aggregate demand during a real business cycle recession. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s The U.S. Expansion of the 1990s The expansion that started in March 1991 lasted 120 months. The previous all-time record for an expansion was 106 months, which took place in the 1960s. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Productivity Growth in the Information Age Massive technological change occurred during the 1990s (computers and related technologies exploded, as did biotechnology.) The technological change created profit opportunities, which increased investment demand. In turn, the higher capital stock increased aggregate supply. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Fiscal policy and monetary policy Fiscal policy was restrained. As a fraction of GDP, government purchases remained about constant and tax revenues increased, largely as a result of a growing economy. Monetary policy also was restrained. The Fed generally kept the money supply at a relatively slow and steady rate that lead to falling inflation and interest rates. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply During the Expansion Figure 30.8 illustrates the changes in aggregate demand and aggregate supply that occurred during the 1990s expansion. In 1991, there was a small recessionary gap. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Aggregate demand and long-run aggregate supply both increased. But aggregate demand increased more than long-run aggregate supply, so both the price level and real GDP increased. In 2001, the economy was at full employment. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s A Real Business Cycle Expansion Phase This expansion seems identical to those RBC predicts: technological change increases productivity, with the result that labor demand and aggregate supply increase. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s The U.S. Recession of 2001 The 2001 recession was the mildest on record. There was no clearly visible external shock to set off the recession. There were no major fiscal shocks to trigger the recession. There were no major monetary shocks prior to the start of the recession, although the Fed had raised interest rates a little in 2000 and held M2 growth steady. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Real Business Cycle Effects The growth of productivity did slow in early 2001 according to preliminary data, and this would have slowed the real GDP growth rate. In itself, it seems insufficient to have caused a recession, but it was associated with a very severe reduction of business investment that was the proximate cause of the fall in aggregate demand and the start of the recession. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Labor Market and Productivity Labor productivity increased, as did the real wage, because employment and aggregate hours fell more than GDP and unemployment rose. The rise in real wages reduced short-run aggregate supply. Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s:  Expansion and Recession During the 1990s and 2000s Figure 30.9 illustrates the changes in aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the 2001 recession. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression In early 1929 unemployment was at 3.2 percent. In October the stock market fell by a third in two weeks. The following four years were a terrible economic experience: the Great Depression. In 1930, the price level fell by about three percent and real GDP declined by also about nine percent. Over the next three years several adverse shocks hit aggregate demand and real GDP declined by 29 percent and the price level by 24 percent from their 1929 levels. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression The 1920s were a prosperous era but as they drew to a close increased uncertainty affected investment and consumption demand for durables. The stock market crash of 1929 also heightened uncertainty. The uncertainty caused investment to fall, which decreased aggregate demand and real GDP in 1930. Until 1930, the Great Depression was similar to an ordinary recession. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression Figure 30.10 shows the changes in aggregate demand and aggregate supply during the Great Depression. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression Why the Great Depression Happened Some economists think that decrease in investment was the primary cause that decreased aggregate demand and created the depression. Other economists (notably Milton Friedman) assert that inept monetary policy was the primary cause of the decrease in aggregate demand. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression Banks failed in an unprecedented amount during the Depression. The main initial reason was loans made in the 1920s that went sour. Bank failures fed on themselves; people seeing one bank fail took their money out of other banks and caused the other banks to fail. The massive number of bank failures caused a huge contraction in the money supply that was not offset by the Federal Reserve. The Great Depression:  The Great Depression Can It Happen Again? Four reasons make it less likely that another Great Depression will occur Bank deposit insurance Lender of last resort. Taxes and government spending Multi-income families

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