Published on December 24, 2007
Regional Strategic Appraisal: Regional Strategic Appraisal Eurasia Regional History: Regional History Scandanavian’s settled in Rurik and Novrood in 862 and spread to Kiev 882 which created a dynasty in the region. 1147 Kievan-Rus empire in decline results of Mongolian invasion. 1380-1480 Moscow rebelled Tatar rule creating the Muscovite rule under the control of Grand Duke Ivan III (Ivan the Great) Grand Duke Ivan III (Ivan the Great) subjugated cities around Moscow and unified Russia (Muscovite rule) Russia repels an invasion from Poland from 1604 to 1613 Boyars in 1613 elect Michael Romanov creating a dynasty which ruled for 304 years 1675 Peter the Great became the Russia’s first Emperor 1761 Catherine the Great continued Russian expansion by annexing parts of Eastern and Central Europe. Expanding into China, and Afghanistan. 1812 France invades Russia (War of 1812) 1825 Decemberist Revolution failed 1917 Bolsheviks gain power and lead the October Revolution 1922 the Soviet Union was created 1930 Joseph Stalin consolidated power and became leader of Russia under communism 1942 Germany invades Russia (WWII, Russia’s Great Patriotic War) 1945-46 The Cold War begins between Western Powers and the Soviet Union 1991 The Cold War ends with a failed military coup which caused the collapse of the Soviet Union 1991 Boris Yeltsin becomes the first freely elected president in Russia. 1993 Russia experiences a constitution crisis which Yeltsin won with military help 2000 Vladimir Putin elected president. History of U.S. Involvement: History of U.S. Involvement 1809 John Quincy Adams appointed first US diplomat to Russia US experiences strong trade relations 1823 Monroe doctrine caused friction between US and Russia 1876 US purchases Alaska from Russia 1916 US enters WWI with Britain, France, and Russia 1941 US enters WWII with Britain and Russia 1945-1990 Cold War with Russia 1990-present US building relations with Russia Major powers/Hegemons: Major powers/Hegemons Europe (Britain, France, Germany) Asia (China, India, Japan) Middle East (Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan) Emerging Caucasus Sources of Conflict: Sources of Conflict Internal Disparity between ruling class and basic citizen rights Laws applied to governing officials are different than same laws applied to basic citizen Government corruption is a continuing problem that has energized citizen groups Economic Reforms Major Russian corporation being headed by hand picked officials, majority former KGB officers Transition social benefits to cash payment system Housing reform requires residents to pay utilities or be evicted Political Representation Government controls who can run for office President appoints region governors Oppression of political voice of the people by using force to quill dissention and public demonstrations External Missile Defense perceived by Russian government as creating an imbalance in strategic arena East block countries have aligned with the West and desire entrance to NATO Georgia “Rose Rebellion” rejects Russian influence within its borders Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict unresolved with Russia supporting Armenia Russia positioning forces in Armenia Control of Caucasus petroleum wealth at stake between Russia and the West U.S. Regional Interests: U.S. Regional Interests Vital No nuclear attack by Russia against US interest Productive Relations with Russia Secure Russian nuclear weapons, weapon-usable material and technology Important Stable Russian Government No violent conflict between Russia and European post-Soviet states Access to resources within the region Peripheral Conflict within Russia and adjacent region be resolved peacefully with human rights protected Rule of law be established within Russia that facilitates transition to open market system External/Internal Factors: External/Internal Factors China desire to acquire Caucasus region resources Europe’s dependence on Russia for fuel Increased unrest of Russian civilian population Middle East Radicalism expanding into Southern Russia Policy Recommendation: Policy Recommendation Renew Strategic Partnership with Russia on a Global Scale Support Russia’s war on Islamic extremism Partner with Russia on Missile Defense Objectives (Ends): Objectives (Ends) Ensure no nuclear attack by Russia against US interest Foster productive relations with Russia Ensure security of Russian nuclear weapons, weapon-usable material and technology Avoid an unstable Russian Government Deter violent conflict between Russia and European post-Soviet states Promote access to resources within the region Strategic Concepts (Ways): Strategic Concepts (Ways) Ensure no nuclear attack by Russia against US interest Economic & Military Foster productive relations with Russia Political & Informational Ensure security of Russian nuclear weapons, weapon-usable material and technology Military & Political & Economic Avoid an unstable Russian Government Political & Economic & Informational Deter violent conflict between Russia and European post-Soviet states Political & Informational & Military Promote access to resources within the region Political & Economical & Informational & Military Resources (Means): Resources (Means) Expand technology exchange ( petroleum ) Continue/Expand open dialog Expand cooperative security agreements Expand import of region’s goods/services Risk Assessment: Risk Assessment Assessment of risk in strategy – assess each risk using acceptability, adequacy, feasibility.