Future trends in natural hazard losses

Information about Future trends in natural hazard losses

Published on April 7, 2013

Author: Dr_Dave

Source: authorstream.com

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Future trends in natural hazard losses: Future trends in n atural hazard losses Dave Petley, Durham University 6 th April 2013 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ davepetley Blog: http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ Context: Context Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr The future, according to some scientists, will be exactly like the past, only far more expensive. John Sladek IPCC view of role of physical and social issues in hydrometeorological disasters: IPCC view of role of physical and social issues in hydrometeorological disasters x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data): Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Flooding in China Flooding in China Fatalities Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data): Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Fatalities Flooding in China Flooding in China Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data): Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Fatalities Trends in total numbers are driven by hydrometeorological events: Trends in total numbers are driven by hydrometeorological events x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Flood Total Storm In the last decade Tropical cyclone energy has been unusually low : In the last decade Tropical cyclone energy has been unusually low x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Ryan Maue : http://policlimate.com/tropical/ PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Or: international strategies?: Or: international strategies? x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Earthquakes and volcanoes: Earthquakes and volcanoes x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Simkin and Siebert (1994): number of active volcanoes: Simkin and Siebert (1994): number of active volcanoes Reported number of active volcanoes per year 80 60 40 20 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 1990 Year WW1 WW2 USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5): USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5): USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Future of hydro-meteorological hazards – IPCC SREX report: Future of hydro-meteorological hazards – IPCC SREX report x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Mean temperature (or precipitation etc ) might rise Weather may become more variable Change in shape – shift towards higher extremes PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Exposure to Tropical cyclones Exposure to Floods IPCC SREX report Future earthquake hazard – a case study from Nepal: Future earthquake hazard – a case study from Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. PowerPoint Presentation: Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Kathmandu destroyed in an earthquake in 1934 ?20,000 deaths: Kathmandu destroyed in an earthquake in 1934 ?20,000 deaths x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Himalayan Seismic gaps (Roger Bilham): Himalayan Seismic gaps (Roger Bilham ) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Himalayan earthquake potential (Roger Bilham): Himalayan earthquake potential (Roger Bilham ) x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Scenario – rupture of 1505 fault section: Scenario – rupture of 1505 fault section x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Geology map of Nepal: Geology map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dahal 2013 Topographic map of Nepal: Topographic map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Population density map of Nepal: Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data: Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Xiao Y un Li Peak ground acceleration (gals) PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Peak ground acceleration (gals) Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data Xiao Y un Li PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Peak ground acceleration (gals) Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data Xiao Y un Li 50 km = 200 gal 100 km = 100 gal 10 km = 550 gal Population density map of Nepal: Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Zone of >0.2 g shaking Population density map of Nepal: Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Zone of >0.2 g shaking Impacts: Impacts x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Kathmandu – even a M=7.0 event is expected to kill 100,000 people in the city PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Hospitals, schools and the airport: Hospitals, schools and the airport x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Road network: Road network x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Kathmandu access roads are very landslide prone: Kathmandu access roads are very landslide prone x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Nepal earthquake scenario: Nepal earthquake scenario Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. M=8 earthquake affects Western Nepal >100,000 people killed in Kathmandu Valley (probably much higher) Most of 2.5 million people rendered homeless All utilities (water, power, communications) lost Kathmandu airport runway inoperable Kathmandu valley access roads completely blocked by landslides Current thinking is that it will be three weeks before communication lines are reopened All access via north India, which will also have been profoundly affected Very high levels of loss in rural areas Communications lines exceptionally difficult in those regions i.e. Haiti, but much worse The future: threatened cities from earthquakes: The future: threatened cities from earthquakes Map: University of Colorado and NYT PowerPoint Presentation: x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Arctic sea ice death spiral: https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/pettit-climate-graphs: Arctic sea ice death spiral: https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/pettit-climate-graphs Future patterns of loss: Future patterns of loss x of x Version 3.0 Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Greater economic costs are inevitable – more assets to destroy Hazardous events: Hydrometeorological disasters will probably increase as extremes become more common But some may decrease in some areas (e.g. tropical cyclones?) No effective change in rate of tectonic hazards Patterns of vulnerability will change Greater economic assets provide resilience But a larger urban population changes patterns of risk Increased pressures from climate change? We should anticipate the million fatality or trillion dollar loss event PowerPoint Presentation: David Petley Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ davepetley Blog: http ://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

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