henry

Information about henry

Published on March 28, 2008

Author: Carmela

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Mobility, Motorization and Income: Does Urban Growth Mean More Transport?:  Mobility, Motorization and Income: Does Urban Growth Mean More Transport? Etienne HENRY The French Research Institute for Development <[email protected]> World Bank Transport Forum 2000 Washington DC 04/10/00 Three Universal Precepts::  Three Universal Precepts: Mobility rates (or daily urban travels as measured by household surveys), in southern cities, increase with the urban growth Motorized modes (and increasing car ownership) improve travelers urban transport conditions, as demonstrated in northern countries Income growth should go hand in hand with urbanization and demographic transition, thus reducing transportation issues in emerging cities If proven, would the empirical observations suggest any transport action and benefits? São Paulo century’s urban growth:  São Paulo century’s urban growth Appraisals of Mobility Trends Give Surprising Results… :  Appraisals of Mobility Trends Give Surprising Results… Daily travel rates seem to stagnate or decline within the last decades The 4 last origin-destination surveys carried out in São Paulo show an actual decrease in trip rates since the 1980s This decreasing trend relates to all modes of travel, despite improvements in the overall transport sector, in average income, and in urbanization São Paulo Public Road Transport Trends Since 1950 (Population, Buses, Carriers, Municipality):  São Paulo Public Road Transport Trends Since 1950 (Population, Buses, Carriers, Municipality) <[email protected]> EH &SZ: 151 Bus supply (25.000 vehicles in the RMSP), increased then decreased quicker than population Efficient private firms (30 hold by 3 groups) declined with the public transport crisis They recovered the units introduced by the public operator when privatized (1996), after 50 years of municipal providing intervention New competition comes from the tolerated minibus sector (about 15.000) São Paulo 1967-1997: Transport and Road Supply Crisis:  São Paulo 1967-1997: Transport and Road Supply Crisis Bus supply stopped growing in absolute and relative terms Car fleet, comparable with bus in 1967, overpasses it 3 times in 1997 Thus, travel rates increased till 1977, and then fell down Demand factors may explain this evolution Public transport crisis, like in NA and EU? EH, CMSP, IBGE & OnibuLis surveys data Paris Vs. São Paulo: Individual Motorization Different Trends:  Paris Vs. São Paulo: Individual Motorization Different Trends Standard life cycle profiles generations 1942-1951: in Paris, young people own a vehicle early (Peak: 80% at age 43) in São Paulo, (1) less owners; (2) ownership later (Peak: 60% at age 53) JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys Île de France 1992 Grande São Paulo 1997 10.930 Million inhabitants 16.583 4.05 Million cars 2.85 +79.900 +2.4 % Cars/year 70s-90s + 76.900 +3.9 % +1.40 +3 % Million veh. km/year +1.67 +5 % São Paulo 1967-1997: RMSP Modal Split Trends:  São Paulo 1967-1997: RMSP Modal Split Trends EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data Transport demand equalizes increase of population: - bus decreases - car increases - rail stops growing - 2 wheels stagnates Paris Vs. São Paulo: Car Ownership Spatial Differencies:  Paris Vs. São Paulo: Car Ownership Spatial Differencies Generations 1946-1950 (IDF) and 1942-1951 (GSP) in the cities, 3 zones of density/activities/infrastructure:center, outskirts, suburbs Paris: self-motorization is lower in city center; higher in outskirts and growing in suburbs São Paulo: motorization is higher in the main city, where new generations are more motorized; growing in outskirts; and low in poor suburbs JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys São Paulo 1967-97: : Public Vs. Private Travel Modes:  São Paulo 1967-97: : Public Vs. Private Travel Modes EH, from CMSP OD surveys data Private transport modes increase slower than public ones fall Rail modes become more important Semi-public modes can be sub-estimated Survey data do not consider pluri-modal travels São Paulo 1967-1997: Mobility Trend Indicators:  São Paulo 1967-1997: Mobility Trend Indicators EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data Why Has Mobility Stagnated?:  Why Has Mobility Stagnated? Other than empirical urbanization/transport indicators, behavior patterns could also explain the gaps between growth and mobility, i.e., Emerging demographic transition (urban, gender, age) Economic urban contrasts (self-employment, job/house links, rich/poor) Sociological patterns and way of life (shopping centers, congestion, insecurity, telecommunications) Inaccessibility to alternative urban activities (lack, violence) Family life and social barriers in the mega-cities may refrain travel practices São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Diary Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Income:  Trips/day always 3 time higher in upper income families than in lower ones (dualism) Smaller variation for lower income and mid-income families (captivity) Bigger decrease of family trip rate with the wealthiest households (individualism) São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Diary Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Income EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data São Paulo 1977/87/97: Personal Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Family Income:  Decrease of 0,27 trips/day/person 1977-1997 (all groups) Higher decrease in individual trip rate 1977-87 (crisis?) For wealthier population, higher decrease between 1987 & 1997 (behavioral?) São Paulo 1977/87/97: Personal Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Family Income EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Daily Traveled Time Modal Split by Income Quartile:  São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Daily Traveled Time Modal Split by Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data quartile 1 quartile 2 quartile 3 quartile 4 Paris Vs. São Paulo: Social Differenciation of Car Ownership :  Paris Vs. São Paulo: Social Differenciation of Car Ownership Standard life cycle profiles generations 1942-1951 Paris: gap between the lowest income quartile and others; more car owners among the young São Paulo: big gap between highest quartile and others; elder more motorized for the lower 50% household heads JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys São Paulo 1977/87/97: Individual Traveled Time Modal Split by Family Income Quartile:  São Paulo 1977/87/97: Individual Traveled Time Modal Split by Family Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data São Paulo 1977/87/97: Decreasing Travel Time Budget and Daily Run Distances :  Reduction in the travel time budget can be explained either by better transport or by a deterioration of urban accessibility Without the increase in daily traveled distance, families seem to live closer to their activities while individual trips fluctuate São Paulo 1977/87/97: Decreasing Travel Time Budget and Daily Run Distances EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data São Paulo 1977/87/97: Daily Traveled Distance Modal Split by Family Income Quartile:  São Paulo 1977/87/97: Daily Traveled Distance Modal Split by Family Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data What Are The Lessons?:  What Are The Lessons? Common trends in emerging mega-cities indicate rare impacts of new city life patterns in fragmented social and space contexts The Latin-American urbanization highlights great specificity and differences, in front of common urban system crisis Over-reliability on individual modes, i.e., car ownership for the upper income households, and motorized or non-mechanized trips for the lower income ones, accentuates the needs and crisis of the transport system Enclosed communities and opposite behavioral patterns cross over the whole society São Paulo Mobility Trends Compared with Mexico and Buenos Aires Modal Split Appraisals:  São Paulo Mobility Trends Compared with Mexico and Buenos Aires Modal Split Appraisals EH, from OD survey data: CMSP 1967, 77, 87, 97; DDF-EM 83, INEG 94I; DCF-EPTRM 70, actu 92 Compared Mobility Trends in 3 Latin-American Mega-Cities:  Compared Mobility Trends in 3 Latin-American Mega-Cities EH, from OD survey data: CMSP 1967, 77, 87, 97; DDF-EM 83, INEG 94I; DCF-EPTRM 70, actu 92 Motorized Trips Modal Split in 8 Latin American Cities:  Motorized Trips Modal Split in 8 Latin American Cities EH, from OD survey data: INEGI; DCF; CMSP; EMTU; BHTrans; MLH; PMV Forward:  Forward When urban growth does not secure increased mobility conditions, transportation becomes a real governance problem Productive re-structuration, redistribution of activities in the urban space, employment opportunities dissemination, major speed travel conditions, introduce new linkages housing/transport If lower income families remain constrained with captive travel obligations, medium and high income groups can reduce their trips and experiment a “gated urban life” More attention must be paid to a scientific approach of mobility, beginning with cross OD surveys analysis where they exist Guideline for Urban Transport There is no mechanical effect, therefore:  Guideline for Urban Transport There is no mechanical effect, therefore mobility requires: accessibility development sociability RESEARCH should be a powerful arm to avoid misunderstanding and few effective actions Motorization and Mobility Contrasts in Mega-Cities Contrastes de la motorización y de la movilidad en las megápolis Contrastes de la motorisation et de la mobilité dans les mégapoles :  Motorization and Mobility Contrasts in Mega-Cities Contrastes de la motorización y de la movilidad en las megápolis Contrastes de la motorisation et de la mobilité dans les mégapoles Etienne HENRY The French Research Institute for Development <[email protected]> Codatu IX international transport conference Mexico City 04/13/00

Related presentations


Other presentations created by Carmela

1 Introduction to Strategy
11. 01. 2008
0 views

1 Introduction to Strategy

2 Serge Frechette
07. 05. 2008
0 views

2 Serge Frechette

Erguden
02. 05. 2008
0 views

Erguden

Canada
24. 04. 2008
0 views

Canada

2007 freshman class
23. 04. 2008
0 views

2007 freshman class

sport
16. 04. 2008
0 views

sport

tamuraADI2004
08. 04. 2008
0 views

tamuraADI2004

Imagine Cup
03. 04. 2008
0 views

Imagine Cup

IAU Laos
21. 03. 2008
0 views

IAU Laos

ijcnlp 20080109
19. 03. 2008
0 views

ijcnlp 20080109

Motivation
17. 01. 2008
0 views

Motivation

Chapter 05
09. 01. 2008
0 views

Chapter 05

stone masonry
10. 01. 2008
0 views

stone masonry

ppp David Asteraki Presentation
12. 01. 2008
0 views

ppp David Asteraki Presentation

Promer Materials 34
13. 01. 2008
0 views

Promer Materials 34

syntax 1 checklist
13. 01. 2008
0 views

syntax 1 checklist

ARChapter4
15. 01. 2008
0 views

ARChapter4

Gravity Control
16. 01. 2008
0 views

Gravity Control

PersuasionThroughRhe toric
17. 01. 2008
0 views

PersuasionThroughRhe toric

Math
21. 01. 2008
0 views

Math

050525Barlow
22. 01. 2008
0 views

050525Barlow

Chemistry PostGrad
22. 01. 2008
0 views

Chemistry PostGrad

ci avian influenza
23. 01. 2008
0 views

ci avian influenza

meteorology03
25. 01. 2008
0 views

meteorology03

04 iran
04. 02. 2008
0 views

04 iran

mobiquitous keynote
04. 02. 2008
0 views

mobiquitous keynote

Jay Patterson 9 15 05
11. 02. 2008
0 views

Jay Patterson 9 15 05

LCROSS OverviewforObs
08. 01. 2008
0 views

LCROSS OverviewforObs

Movies
29. 01. 2008
0 views

Movies

2007 Popcorn Presentation
07. 02. 2008
0 views

2007 Popcorn Presentation

ylp
18. 02. 2008
0 views

ylp

poster
25. 01. 2008
0 views

poster

squirrel
25. 02. 2008
0 views

squirrel

04 Greg McDougall
05. 02. 2008
0 views

04 Greg McDougall

F07C107 19Defense1
10. 01. 2008
0 views

F07C107 19Defense1

BeansB
16. 01. 2008
0 views

BeansB

Laser2003
18. 01. 2008
0 views

Laser2003

MHL 2005 06
13. 02. 2008
0 views

MHL 2005 06

dasso asse 2004
22. 01. 2008
0 views

dasso asse 2004

Cation biogeo chemistry
22. 01. 2008
0 views

Cation biogeo chemistry

04 1 IR Basics 3
14. 01. 2008
0 views

04 1 IR Basics 3

GSIYCF IYCF
15. 01. 2008
0 views

GSIYCF IYCF

Inspire HGL Version
29. 01. 2008
0 views

Inspire HGL Version

industriousnh
14. 03. 2008
0 views

industriousnh

su induction
07. 02. 2008
0 views

su induction