International Trade Update
Slide1: SCLC/ECC Spring 2007 Meeting International Trade Update Stephen Lamar Exec. Vice President American Apparel & Footwear Association Elections: Elections Elections were NOT about Trade General dissatisfaction on economy (incl. trade) Trade dominant in several elections But Trade very much affected by Elections New Congress MUCH more protectionist Freshmen Dems GOP no longer whipping from leadership Trade not a priority Pro Trade Democrats (New Dem, Blue Dog) Chairmen Rangel and Baucus will be key How did we fare in 2006?: How did we fare in 2006? Two FTAs – Oman and Bahrain Staggered CAFTA-DR Implementation Trade Preference Programs Haiti AGOA Andean GSP Vietnam WTO Accession Misc. Tariff Bills Port Security No Schumer/Graham Burma Sanctions Renewal (3-year) Trade Agenda for 2007: Trade Agenda for 2007 Trade/Labor Pending FTAs Peru Colombia Korea Panama Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) China/Enforcement Preference Programs Andean LDC GSP CBTPA Doha Round TAA CAFTA-DR Implementation Vietnam Monitoring Preference Program Implementation Affordable Footwear Initiative Pakistan ROZ Annual Burma Sanctions Renewal Trade/Labor: Trade/Labor Integral part of a Democrat trade agenda A New Trade Policy For America Three key labor concepts: Internationally recognized labor rights No derogation Equally enforceable Hidden agenda Will big labor really support trade? Big issues over whether this changes US labor laws New Anti-Sweatshop push? Current and Future U.S. Free Trade Agreements: Israel NAFTA Jordan Chile Singapore Australia Morocco Current and Future U.S. Free Trade Agreements CAFTA-DR* Bahrain Oman Peru Colombia Panama South Korea Malaysia FTAA ASEAN Middle East In force Under negotiation Stalled/Downgraded Pending Regional Initiatives Potential Ecuador SACU UAE Thailand Japan *El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and DR only. Note: Peru, Colombia and Ecuador may be merged. Note: Oman approved by Congress but not yet entered into force. FTA Issues: FTA Issues Peru and Colombia Labor rights concerns Environmental concerns in Peru Human Rights concerns in Colombia Andean expiration Panama Labor rights Canal project South Korea Big agreement; huge priority Controversy Beef Autos Doha Round: Doha Round Launched Nov 2002 Development agenda Faltered July 2006 Key issues Agricultural issues Subsidies Market Access Developing countries NAMA Textile mischief Trade Promotion Authority: Trade Promotion Authority Ability of President to negotiate trade agreements Congressional power of attorney Up or Down Vote Consultation Expires June 30, 2007 No more FTAs or Doha Round until renewed. CAFTA-DR Status and Issues: CAFTA-DR Status and Issues El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, DR, & Guatemala Have Implemented Costa Rica Joining 1st Quarter 2008? Cumulation Deal Pocketing Deal DR Trousers Sock Safeguard? Nicaragua TPL Retroactivity Regulations Published U.S. Apparel Imports from DR-CAFTA Region: U.S. Apparel Imports from DR-CAFTA Region Source: OTEXA, U.S. Commerce Department. CAFTA-DR: Positive Signs: CAFTA-DR: Positive Signs Investments Up Nicaragua Apparel Imports Up CAFTA Apparel Import Decline Flattening US Yarn Exports Up Individual Product Growth Dresses 40 percent PJs 167 percent What to Do About China?: What to Do About China? - Huge budget deficit - Vocal and active “blame China” crowd - China Concerns: - Labor/human rights - IPR Issues (WTO) - Currency - Subsidies (WTO) Politically popular to use trade remedies/safeguards CVD Issues Expect China legislation - Wrapped up in “enforcement” debate A few words on Vietnam: A few words on Vietnam WTO Accession – January 11, 2007 Quota free on January 11, 2007 Vietnam PNTR Approved Anti Subsidy Safeguard Expires January 10, 2008 (July 10, 2009) Dole/Graham commitment Monitoring Review every 6 months Earliest liability for AD duties – mid-August 2006 Expires January 20, 2009 Electoral Mischief? Precedent for China? For the rest of the Bush Administration…: For the rest of the Bush Administration… June 30, 2007 – Expiration of TPA June 30, 2007 – Expiration of ATPDEA December 31, 2007 – Expiration of TAA January 10, 2008 – Expiration of Vietnam safeguard September 30, 2008 – Expiration of CBTPA December 31, 2008 – Expiration of China agreement December 31, 2008 – Expiration of GSP January 20, 2009 – Expiration of Vietnam monitoring Final thought: Final thought Final thought: Final thought Thank You: American Apparel and Footwear Association 1601 N. Kent Street, 12th Floor Arlington, VA 22209 703-797-9041 [email protected] www.apparelandfootwear.org Thank You