JM UWA Luncheon Oct2007

Information about JM UWA Luncheon Oct2007

Published on April 30, 2008

Author: Susann

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Daylight Time and Energy Evidence from an Australian Experiment:  Daylight Time and Energy Evidence from an Australian Experiment Ryan Kellogg Presentation October 2007 Department of Economics - University of Washington Hendrik Wolff Daylight Saving Time (DST): A tool for energy conservation?:  Daylight Saving Time (DST): A tool for energy conservation? Several countries debate about DST: - USA Energy Policy Act of 2005 ”Title I Extends DST by four weeks to reduce energy consumption by the equivalent of 100,000 barrels of oil for each day of the extension.” - Australia, UK, Japan, Korea and others are considering extending DST to curb GHG emissions We use a quasi-experiment to assess whether extending DST saves electricity:  We use a quasi-experiment to assess whether extending DST saves electricity 2000 Sydney Olympic Games: - two states in Australia began to observe DST two months earlier than usual Preview of main result: Contrary to previous DST-literature: Extending DST does not save electricity Slide5:  “I say it is impossible that people lived so long by the smoky, unwholesome, and enormously expensive light of candles, if we had as much pure light of the sun for nothing.” – Benjamin Franklin, Paris, 1784 – Slide6:  “I say it is impossible that people lived so long by the smoky, unwholesome, and enormously expensive light of candles, if we had as much pure light of the sun for nothing.” – Benjamin Franklin, Paris, 1784 – Misallocation causes Paris to consume an additional 64 million pounds of tallow and wax annually. Slide9:  Artificial Lighting Sleep Prior studies find: extending DST into “March” saves electricity by 0.6%-3.5%:  Prior studies find: extending DST into “March” saves electricity by 0.6%-3.5% Studies are directly used by Governments to decide on DST extensions USA: 1% New Zealand: 3.5% Australia: 1%-3.5% California: 0.6% Ontario, Canada: 2.2% However, studies are based on simulations and extrapolations, rather than empirical evidence Nixon 1973: Emergency DST Energy Conservation Act:  Nixon 1973: Emergency DST Energy Conservation Act Observational Study finds 1% savings based on ‘73-’75 DST extension in the USA However… …technology changed …potentially confounded Yellow: Regions observing DST as of 2006:  Yellow: Regions observing DST as of 2006 Road Map:  Road Map Background on the event and graphical results Treatment effect estimation Testing prior DST simulation models Conclusions Typically 3 states observe DST:  Typically 3 states observe DST Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Typically: SA, NSW, and VIC observe DST from October to March VIC In 2000 NSW and VIC are “treated” with 2 months extended DST:  In 2000 NSW and VIC are “treated” with 2 months extended DST Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Typically: SA, NSW, and VIC observe DST from October to March In 2000: NSW and VIC start DST two months earlier VIC Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy:  Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Cited rationales Fewer shadows on the fields improve TV broadcasting Shift visitors between stadia in daylight VIC Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy:  Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Cited rationales Fewer shadows on the fields improve TV broadcasting Shift visitors between stadia in daylight VIC Olympic events confound NSW: International tourism Construction activities  Treated state: VIC, Control state: SA Control State Melbourne Adelaide Treated State Time Line in 2000:  Time Line in 2000 August 27: DST starts in VIC September 15 – October 1: Sydney Olympics in NSW October 29: DST starts in SA Time Line in 2000:  Time Line in 2000 August 27: DST starts in VIC September 15 – October 1: Sydney Olympics in NSW October 29: DST starts in SA The Olympic events present a potential confound in VIC Increased TV ratings, Carnival events around public mega screens Drop Olympic period from treatment period in VIC VIC: Treatment I VIC: Treatment II SA (control state) shows no effect of DST extension:  SA (control state) shows no effect of DST extension Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period :  VIC (treated state) shows regular load pattern in control years Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period VIC 2000 shows intra-day shift in electricity load :  VIC 2000 shows intra-day shift in electricity load Dataset: 1999-2005 panel of:  Dataset: 1999-2005 panel of half hourly electricity demand & wholesale prices hourly weather Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, Pressure, Sunshine, Humidity Day of week, school-vacation, holidays, “transition vacation days” Employment, Gross-State-Product, population “Difference in Differences” Mechanics:  “Difference in Differences” Mechanics Control structure is two-fold: (a) spatial across states controls for differences between states (b) temporal over years controls for any shock on the national level Standard DID :  Standard DID Augment standard DID model by estimating “triple-DID” Treatment Effect Model:  Augment standard DID model by estimating “triple-DID” Treatment Effect Model Triple-DID control structure is three-fold: (a) Spatial across states (b) temporal over years (c) temporal within days using early afternoon hours k …12:00-14:30 as “within” controls With triple-DID: we don’t depend on nearby months and Seasonal variations Model robust against shocks affecting the level of any day (demand is function of 1800 variables) Half hourly treatment effects of extending DST on electricity use :  Half hourly treatment effects of extending DST on electricity use The estimated effect of extending DST in VIC, disaggregated by half-hour, with 95% confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered by day. Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Canada (Ontario) Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand USA Canada Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand California Canada USA Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Australia Canada USA California Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Australia Canada USA California Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST:  Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand weekdays Canada USA California weekends Value of results:  Value of results First quantitative study to show that DST does not decrease electricity consumption, contradicting prior research Australia considers extending DST to cut GHG emissions Can we transfer the results to the U.S.? San Francisco: latitude & climate similar to Melbourne Next we examine the “California Simulation model” California identifies three benefits of extending DST:  California identifies three benefits of extending DST Extended DST… (1) …saves non-renewable resources Electricity use decrease (2) …increases consumer welfare Reduction in peak evening demand: price decreases CA benefits up to $1.3 billion annually (3) …helps to avoid extreme events Likelihood of blackout decreases CEC 2001 Simulation :  CEC 2001 Simulation Simulation unable to predict intraday-change in demand:  Simulation unable to predict intraday-change in demand Treatment in Victoria 2000 leads to a price spike:  Treatment in Victoria 2000 leads to a price spike MW Conclusions I:  Conclusions I ...none of the “three benefits” of extended DST could be confirmed. The extension: - does not save electricity - increases prices - increases the critical demand spikes …findings are of policy interest since Australia considers re-introducing the 2000-DST-schedule to curb GHG emissions …results suggest U.S. will not benefit from extending DST …extending DST is not a quick fix for energy conservation. Slide43:  U.S. Energy Bill of 2005: “If the study does not report adequate savings, Congress should consider to return to the original Daylight Savings Time schedule.” Policy Recommendation: ….Pull out DST legislation from Energy Bills ….Health Benefits? Business? Conclusions II Penetration trends of air conditioning by state:  Penetration trends of air conditioning by state Characteristics of Generators:  Characteristics of Generators Two Issues: - “Is Real Time Pricing Green?: – Impacts of Demand Variance” (Holland & Mansur, 2004) - Forecasting Error, DST learning National Electricity Market, Australia:  National Electricity Market, Australia Settlement of electricity prices in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA :  Settlement of electricity prices in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA  demand  price:   demand  price M Tu W Th F Sa Su M T W T F M T W T F ------------- School Vacation ---------- Table 2: Summary statistics of data used from 1999 to 2001, 27 August to 27 October:  Table 2: Summary statistics of data used from 1999 to 2001, 27 August to 27 October Selection of the afternoon hours:  Selection of the afternoon hours Equator:  Equator Slide56:  Melbourne Slide57:  Melbourne Slide58:  Sleep Artifical lighting Slide61:  Sunshine Hours during Standard Time September, Melbourne Slide62:  Sunshine Hours during DST extension September, Melbourne San Francisco:  San Francisco Melbourne:  Melbourne

Related presentations


Other presentations created by Susann

Athletic Footwear Industry
31. 03. 2008
0 views

Athletic Footwear Industry

radioactivity 1
07. 02. 2008
0 views

radioactivity 1

Africa Unit 3
02. 04. 2008
0 views

Africa Unit 3

Market Research
03. 03. 2008
0 views

Market Research

module 1 intro
08. 05. 2008
0 views

module 1 intro

zly
07. 05. 2008
0 views

zly

031016 inhale montreal
02. 05. 2008
0 views

031016 inhale montreal

new leg
02. 05. 2008
0 views

new leg

Tutorial
24. 04. 2008
0 views

Tutorial

NSW China Briefing
22. 04. 2008
0 views

NSW China Briefing

Weber Fall06
18. 04. 2008
0 views

Weber Fall06

SharksPP
17. 04. 2008
0 views

SharksPP

Dennill Managing Your Risk
09. 01. 2008
0 views

Dennill Managing Your Risk

AAS Presentation
10. 01. 2008
0 views

AAS Presentation

GANG Powerpoint
11. 01. 2008
0 views

GANG Powerpoint

885
15. 01. 2008
0 views

885

Chapt 05
16. 01. 2008
0 views

Chapt 05

Class11
09. 01. 2008
0 views

Class11

Mercantilism
18. 01. 2008
0 views

Mercantilism

ppe p sp
20. 01. 2008
0 views

ppe p sp

training docs
21. 01. 2008
0 views

training docs

eukaryoticorgs
22. 01. 2008
0 views

eukaryoticorgs

LimitedBrandsPresent ation
04. 02. 2008
0 views

LimitedBrandsPresent ation

MLA outreach presentation
15. 01. 2008
0 views

MLA outreach presentation

CenturyTheatre Ad Sept06 gg
15. 01. 2008
0 views

CenturyTheatre Ad Sept06 gg

LutzWalter
22. 01. 2008
0 views

LutzWalter

secondary aluminum
12. 02. 2008
0 views

secondary aluminum

2 3 Ben Sekamatte
25. 01. 2008
0 views

2 3 Ben Sekamatte

Clara Qualizza
19. 01. 2008
0 views

Clara Qualizza

Session 4 Oper vs Aux
28. 01. 2008
0 views

Session 4 Oper vs Aux

Ch5 6 10 14
29. 01. 2008
0 views

Ch5 6 10 14

Rites of Passage
29. 01. 2008
0 views

Rites of Passage

Jonah Presentation
30. 01. 2008
0 views

Jonah Presentation

tjea
07. 02. 2008
0 views

tjea

firesafety
07. 02. 2008
0 views

firesafety

Wiriya Suwannet
10. 01. 2008
0 views

Wiriya Suwannet

s Oceans
13. 02. 2008
0 views

s Oceans

Freeman
20. 02. 2008
0 views

Freeman

Forage Diseases
27. 02. 2008
0 views

Forage Diseases

SlaneP constraints
22. 01. 2008
0 views

SlaneP constraints

EPD2 Present and Future
28. 02. 2008
0 views

EPD2 Present and Future

INSOMNIA DrJeanGrenier Nov 2007
28. 02. 2008
0 views

INSOMNIA DrJeanGrenier Nov 2007

SAAS Gianessi
28. 01. 2008
0 views

SAAS Gianessi

5th Grade FCAT Review
14. 03. 2008
0 views

5th Grade FCAT Review

talent engine discussion guide
16. 03. 2008
0 views

talent engine discussion guide

Lecture14 TheEarth
11. 03. 2008
0 views

Lecture14 TheEarth

GEO205 powerpoint 12
27. 03. 2008
0 views

GEO205 powerpoint 12

Parasitology Basic 07
28. 03. 2008
0 views

Parasitology Basic 07

world geography
15. 04. 2008
0 views

world geography

Irwin
16. 04. 2008
0 views

Irwin

BuildingWordnets
05. 02. 2008
0 views

BuildingWordnets

Douglas Morgan
16. 01. 2008
0 views

Douglas Morgan

Wien
05. 03. 2008
0 views

Wien

NSO 2007
14. 01. 2008
0 views

NSO 2007

GeneralOutreachKansas
29. 01. 2008
0 views

GeneralOutreachKansas

Rita Tucker
25. 01. 2008
0 views

Rita Tucker

Bob Moseley Kawagebo
05. 02. 2008
0 views

Bob Moseley Kawagebo

michigan0314b
15. 01. 2008
0 views

michigan0314b

Canning Fruits
06. 02. 2008
0 views

Canning Fruits

English Labofa EGO Nordic
05. 03. 2008
0 views

English Labofa EGO Nordic

SlidesWithNotes
14. 02. 2008
0 views

SlidesWithNotes

GMkk
24. 01. 2008
0 views

GMkk

20030909152346 EVI
13. 01. 2008
0 views

20030909152346 EVI

07nrm
22. 01. 2008
0 views

07nrm

praca5
03. 03. 2008
0 views

praca5

majingweili
14. 04. 2008
0 views

majingweili

Module3Presentation
25. 02. 2008
0 views

Module3Presentation

Jones NDDA
20. 01. 2008
0 views

Jones NDDA

Thornton CreatingAClimate
17. 01. 2008
0 views

Thornton CreatingAClimate

FirstHalfStudyGuide
15. 02. 2008
0 views

FirstHalfStudyGuide