m101

Information about m101

Published on October 9, 2007

Author: Janelle

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Asia Propylene & Derivatives Markets Kuala Lumpur October 17, 2000:  Asia Propylene & Derivatives Markets Kuala Lumpur October 17, 2000 Asian Propylene and PP Markets: Structure and Outlook David Hanna Platts Asia Petrochemicals Managing Editor Energy Information Group Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow:  Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow Japan: Largest producer (cap = 2.9-mil t/y) Idemitsu, Grand Polymer(Mitsui + Ube), Montell Sunrise (1999) Consolidation from 14 to 7 PP players Korea: Largest exporter ('99 X = 1.35-mil mt = 55-60% output) Daelim + Montell --> PolyMirae in 2000 China: Largest importer ('99 M = 1.5-mil mt, 40% from Korea) WTO entry:PP duty 25%(‘95), 12%(‘00), 9%(‘05) Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow:  Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow Taiwan: Active buyer and seller via HK (‘99 M = 258kt, X = 165kt) Yung Chia, TPP, FCFC(300kt Q2’00) Southeast Asia: From buyer to seller (PP cap expands 30% 98-2004 from 2.3 to 3.0-mil t/y) TPC Singapore regional price leader,Exxon Mobil (275kt end’00) Tripolyta, Polytama in Indonesia Malaysia Titan expansion MHC, TPI Thailand Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow:  Asian PP Market structure, Trade flow India: A new exporter Reliance 600kt in 1999, Haldia 200kt in May’00 Middle East: New entrant Deepsea: Marginal but may grow (US = 6%[90kt] of Chinese imports) Arco California, US economic slowdown Weak Euro --> exports Yanpet 260kt Jul’00 Ibn Zahr expd to 300kt’00 Teldene 300kt ‘05 Issues facing the Asian PP Market:  Issues facing the Asian PP Market PP import flood into Japan after 2004: 6.5% duty Concentration on copolymer grades Increasing Domestic-International Integration China: Daily Yuyao posting Indonesia: US dollar based domestic prices Japan: Shift from retroactive to forward pricing (+Y 1,000/kl naph --> +Y 2/kg C3) Slide6:  Increasing sensitivity to crude oil since 1999, Volatility (PP FEAsia, IPE Brent) H1 ‘97 H1 ‘00 r² = 0.04 / v = 4% r² = 0.4 / v = 6% Issues in the Asian PP Market:  Issues in the Asian PP Market Emergence of new players and Converge on Chinese market PP vs. PE profits Asian Propylene market:  Asian Propylene market Sellers : Japan '99 X = 500kt Showa Denko to Taiwan PP term, Tonen to Taekwang term Buyers : China '99 M = 95kt, +42% Taiwan '99 M = 200kt (but FPC also X's, may sell to China via Japan) ASEAN: Indonesia, Phil, Thailand Korea '99 X = 270kt S-Oil (Asia's largest spot exporter) Yeochon, Samsung, LG, Hyundai, SK World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene:  World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene 1998 2004 Asia 100 -100 Korea 100 0 Taiwan -200 0 China -100 0 ASEAN -200 -400 India 100 -100 Japan 300 500 NW Europe -200 -500 N America -700 -600 Mid East 100 400 (Units: 1,000mt. Sources: MITI) World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene:  World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene MITI's Outlook Asia will become net short Europe's deficit will grow, exceeding Asia US deficit will shrink Mid East will be largest seller World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene:  World Supply-Demand Balance for Propylene Within Asia Japan's surplus will swell Korea's surplus will disappear Taiwan and China will become self sufficient Southeast Asia's import position will grow India will become a major buyer after SE Asia Asia to remain largest C3 consumer and producer D = 18.7-mil mt by 2004, 31% or world total Asian C3 shortage peaks in 2000, shrinks in 2001:  Asian C3 shortage peaks in 2000, shrinks in 2001 Shortage chg 1998 785 1999 716 - 2000 844 + 2001 689 - (Units: 1,000mt. Source: Marubeni) Issues in the Propylene Market:  Issues in the Propylene Market Asia-to-Europe arbitrage window, weak Euro Asia Exports to Europe Issues in the Propylene Market:  Issues in the Propylene Market 6-7 More propane Dehydro units needed in Asia Cost-competitive gas crackers maximize C2 yield as the expense of C3 DH units in Asia: Taekwang, Hyosung(Korea), NPC(Thai), Petronas(ML) Propylene yield from…. Ethane = 3% Naphtha = 13% Propane = 18% ...But Saudi to use more propane (crackers, Cyclar process), Japan may have to burn PPY in place of LPG Impact of Saudi Arabia:  Impact of Saudi Arabia Korea may cut PE output  PE long, PP short 3 new crackers  reduce C3 output  cut cracking rates  More PE exports to Asia  GRAPH: 1994-now, :  GRAPH: 1994-now, Slide17:  94: Korea emerges from the red, takes pricing power from Japan 95: China cracks down on smuggling:  95: China cracks down on smuggling 96: Southeast Asia moves away from net imports, high naphtha:  96: Southeast Asia moves away from net imports, high naphtha 97-98: Financial crisis drives prices to historic low:  97-98: Financial crisis drives prices to historic low 99: OPEC reins in output:  99: OPEC reins in output Continued cost-push, volatility:  Continued cost-push, volatility What lies ahead:  What lies ahead Ten Asian economies 1997 2.0% - 1998 1.0% - 1999 6.2% + 2000 6.5%* + Chinese GDP growth rate to slow to 5-7% p.a. thru 2004 2000-2001: Peak of six-year price cycle Crude cost-push will not relent until mid-2001 2003: Peak in profit cycle (ChemSystems) What lies ahead:  What lies ahead Forecastes can be nullified by political factors N-S Korea unification Taiwan-China relation Chinese policy changes Leadership vacuum in Japan Post-Suharto Indonesia Slide25:  Platt's Price Assessment Methodology Sources Basis: Spot deals In the absence of deals Producers Consumers Traders Anyone deemed active and reliable in the market Marginalism: Repeatability test of deals Prices determined by spot tonnage, not absolute market share Consider highest bids vs. lowest offers, Prevailing market trend (no stair-casing) Platts does not set prices, but reflects the market Manipulation Platt's Prices Assessment Methodology(Continued):  Platt's Prices Assessment Methodology(Continued) Confirmed spot trades Fixed price, not formula-based Bids & Offers $500 $510 $520 Highest Bid $530 $540 $550 Lowest Offer Platts Assessment Platt's strives for both precision and accuracy in assessments :  Platt's strives for both precision and accuracy in assessments trading range ---------------| |--------------- $90 $100 precise but not accurate (off the mark) -----------| |--------------------- $86 $88 accurate but not precise (too wide) ---------------| |--------------- $90 $100 both accurate and precise ----------------| |---------------- $92 $98 Platt's Prices Assessment Methodology(Continued):  Timing: Basis: CFR (enduser, trader, etc.), FOB Asia Credit: 0-30 days usance Cargo sizes Platt's Prices Assessment Methodology(Continued) Monomers: 20-40 day Sliding Window Polymers: 15-30 days out Polymers 100-500mt BTX 2,000mt + “Snapshot”, not weekly average Platt’s Petchemical Alert PCA005:  Platt’s Petchemical Alert PCA005 May23--Taiwan bids H2Jun 2.3kt ethylene at $510/mt CFR. May23-- Korea offers mid-Jun 5kt benzene at $375/mt FOB. May23-- French maker offers Jun 100-200mt LDPE at $710/mt CFR China/Singapore/Malaysia. May23-- Crude:1100 GMT: Jun Brent at $27.70-27.74/bbl. May23-- Crude:1100GMT: Jun WTI at $28.19/bbl; Jul $28.39/bbl. May23-- Indonesia bids end-Jul 4kt PX at $400/mt CFR. May23-- Trader bids Jun 100-200mt PVC at $700/mt CIF Hong Kong. May23-- Indonesia bids end-May 2-3kt PTA at $450-460/mt CFR Jakarta. May23-- Taiwan offers H1Jun 5kt SM at $650/mt FOB. May23-- Thailand offers H1Jun 50-100mt GPPS at $800/mt CFR Vietnam/Philippines. May23-- Thailand offers H1Jun 100-200mt GPPS at $780/mt CFR Hong Kong. May23-- Jul/Aug naphtha market closed Mon at $269.75/mt C+F Japan. Flow of Information Platt’s Petrochemical Alert:  Flow of Information Platt’s Petrochemical Alert Real Time Instant Feedback Price Discovery Transparency Heard in the markets PCA 5 PCA 5 Questions:  Questions

Related presentations


Other presentations created by Janelle

web2001 5 potato fungicide
31. 12. 2007
0 views

web2001 5 potato fungicide

Acupuncture
04. 01. 2008
0 views

Acupuncture

Networking Devices
01. 01. 2008
0 views

Networking Devices

Som de Cinema
24. 10. 2007
0 views

Som de Cinema

Cataract  History  05
02. 05. 2008
0 views

Cataract History 05

GEC NEVC 0ct 06
28. 09. 2007
0 views

GEC NEVC 0ct 06

LECTURE 7
03. 10. 2007
0 views

LECTURE 7

TS2 2 1
04. 10. 2007
0 views

TS2 2 1

saferoom
07. 10. 2007
0 views

saferoom

cpt
16. 10. 2007
0 views

cpt

Presentation media use
17. 10. 2007
0 views

Presentation media use

MosbysNursingCONSULT Training
29. 09. 2007
0 views

MosbysNursingCONSULT Training

maws3 5883
23. 10. 2007
0 views

maws3 5883

Presentacion PPP Panama
22. 10. 2007
0 views

Presentacion PPP Panama

sankar jag
29. 10. 2007
0 views

sankar jag

G020213 00
29. 10. 2007
0 views

G020213 00

jan20wrf
03. 10. 2007
0 views

jan20wrf

Contexto Latinoamericano 2005
22. 10. 2007
0 views

Contexto Latinoamericano 2005

BLRB08 2 rbs
11. 12. 2007
0 views

BLRB08 2 rbs

CrystalPP
12. 10. 2007
0 views

CrystalPP

07 Pilz
19. 10. 2007
0 views

07 Pilz

Lec3 APS301 Slideshow
25. 10. 2007
0 views

Lec3 APS301 Slideshow

Hill Ch 003 part 3 03
31. 10. 2007
0 views

Hill Ch 003 part 3 03

Foolish Fragments
01. 11. 2007
0 views

Foolish Fragments

pp hematoma
06. 11. 2007
0 views

pp hematoma

file0068
06. 11. 2007
0 views

file0068

Biodiesel Production
07. 11. 2007
0 views

Biodiesel Production

turkey presentation
21. 11. 2007
0 views

turkey presentation

Turkey and the EU
23. 11. 2007
0 views

Turkey and the EU

chap14 07
14. 12. 2007
0 views

chap14 07

The Clash of Civilizations
23. 12. 2007
0 views

The Clash of Civilizations

grace agnew
20. 11. 2007
0 views

grace agnew

IX Aerosol
03. 01. 2008
0 views

IX Aerosol

Malignant Wounds
05. 01. 2008
0 views

Malignant Wounds

224 121676
07. 01. 2008
0 views

224 121676

Monday lab ppt presentation
10. 10. 2007
0 views

Monday lab ppt presentation

Sailor Relationship Management
08. 10. 2007
0 views

Sailor Relationship Management

Schischke Penang Label v2
01. 10. 2007
0 views

Schischke Penang Label v2

tomography
15. 10. 2007
0 views

tomography

Flowering2
17. 12. 2007
0 views

Flowering2

INMET training course v4
28. 12. 2007
0 views

INMET training course v4

landmarks And Monuments
12. 10. 2007
0 views

landmarks And Monuments

EARSS december 1 06
19. 10. 2007
0 views

EARSS december 1 06

Presen 1
10. 10. 2007
0 views

Presen 1

P6S1
16. 02. 2008
0 views

P6S1

mtgbog07 smith
19. 02. 2008
0 views

mtgbog07 smith

Viktoras Seskauskas
28. 11. 2007
0 views

Viktoras Seskauskas

Canadian literature powerpoint4
12. 03. 2008
0 views

Canadian literature powerpoint4

ses3 1545 Sethu Raman
30. 09. 2007
0 views

ses3 1545 Sethu Raman

A105 024 Cosmo
16. 10. 2007
0 views

A105 024 Cosmo

communication 2
27. 11. 2007
0 views

communication 2

Performance of DFT
31. 10. 2007
0 views

Performance of DFT

investment strategy
09. 04. 2008
0 views

investment strategy

Analyst meet
17. 04. 2008
0 views

Analyst meet

Sess 1 Zhang Xizhen
10. 10. 2007
0 views

Sess 1 Zhang Xizhen

2205 Joao Carlos
26. 11. 2007
0 views

2205 Joao Carlos

Single Payer101
07. 05. 2008
0 views

Single Payer101

dentalhealth
08. 05. 2008
0 views

dentalhealth

AACBelecs2004
08. 05. 2008
0 views

AACBelecs2004

Extending the SpanishWordNet
31. 10. 2007
0 views

Extending the SpanishWordNet

SCOPE991001
02. 05. 2008
0 views

SCOPE991001

SupportGroup031106
02. 05. 2008
0 views

SupportGroup031106

Martina OConnor
02. 05. 2008
0 views

Martina OConnor

dns pres michaelson roots
30. 10. 2007
0 views

dns pres michaelson roots

CaseEUvirtuellefabrik
15. 10. 2007
0 views

CaseEUvirtuellefabrik

hou leong
10. 10. 2007
0 views

hou leong

DeSangroValencia
31. 10. 2007
0 views

DeSangroValencia

Intro to Pod biomech
30. 04. 2008
0 views

Intro to Pod biomech

wspa07 23
26. 03. 2008
0 views

wspa07 23

95 Romi 25mag
19. 10. 2007
0 views

95 Romi 25mag

Tue1530 137
09. 10. 2007
0 views

Tue1530 137

Helping students help themselves
30. 10. 2007
0 views

Helping students help themselves

XPath
18. 10. 2007
0 views

XPath

GSB presentation4
29. 12. 2007
0 views

GSB presentation4

tornado sample slides
02. 10. 2007
0 views

tornado sample slides

vbq
09. 10. 2007
0 views

vbq

sullivan list
08. 10. 2008
0 views

sullivan list

Moore Plasma Circulation ESSE06
02. 11. 2007
0 views

Moore Plasma Circulation ESSE06

biod145 lecture4 bb
16. 10. 2007
0 views

biod145 lecture4 bb

Final Spring 2003 Presentation
06. 03. 2008
0 views

Final Spring 2003 Presentation

Provisu SSIM2006
19. 10. 2007
0 views

Provisu SSIM2006

WDHSJuly505
20. 02. 2008
0 views

WDHSJuly505

30th Anniv USSP
17. 10. 2007
0 views

30th Anniv USSP

Prion2005
15. 10. 2007
0 views

Prion2005

imperialism 2
22. 10. 2007
0 views

imperialism 2

Lipchitz AFDonCatRisk
23. 10. 2007
0 views

Lipchitz AFDonCatRisk

Cumberland
26. 11. 2007
0 views

Cumberland

606
16. 11. 2007
0 views

606

GAIC5Oct04
31. 10. 2007
0 views

GAIC5Oct04

eceatcz
20. 03. 2008
0 views

eceatcz

upa nyc jonathan bloom
04. 10. 2007
0 views

upa nyc jonathan bloom

ssuo robo3
15. 11. 2007
0 views

ssuo robo3

nuccio lanza
15. 11. 2007
0 views

nuccio lanza

Haroldo Sustainab Develop 0607
30. 10. 2007
0 views

Haroldo Sustainab Develop 0607

presentation eichhorn jan
16. 11. 2007
0 views

presentation eichhorn jan

ling411 23
19. 11. 2007
0 views

ling411 23

DYB US PRC
16. 10. 2007
0 views

DYB US PRC

PHN0202a
13. 03. 2008
0 views

PHN0202a

10 2205 HISTORIA EUA
13. 11. 2007
0 views

10 2205 HISTORIA EUA

ChineseAmericans
30. 10. 2007
0 views

ChineseAmericans

apgrid ggf4
09. 10. 2007
0 views

apgrid ggf4

kur
26. 10. 2007
0 views

kur

HIS104 Lecture05
31. 10. 2007
0 views

HIS104 Lecture05

Harvard Presentation
12. 10. 2007
0 views

Harvard Presentation

wilhelmson
02. 10. 2007
0 views

wilhelmson

MLI Site Visit 4 98 overview
29. 09. 2007
0 views

MLI Site Visit 4 98 overview