Machine Orders YoY and Commodity Intraday Tips

Information about Machine Orders YoY and Commodity Intraday Tips

Published on May 19, 2014

Author: speak2earth

Source: authorstream.com

Content

PowerPoint Presentation: Mac h ine Orders Y oY and Comm o d i t y I n tra d ay Tips C r ude O i l Com m od i ty In tr a d ay view if w e ch e ck th e p er f ormance of oil in t he US, t h e D o E w ee k ly i n ve nt o ry re p o rt a n d a n tic i p a tion of i n c r ease in d em a nd w as t he main d river b e h i n d p rice ri s e la s t w ee k . Th e DoE sho w ed c r u d e sto c k s fo r w eek e n ded 9 th M ay rose b y 0.9 milli o n b arre ls t h o ugh p rod u c t i n ve n tories fell. Gasoli n e sto c k s decli n e d b y 7 7 2,0 00 b arre ls w h e re a s distill a te s to c k s sli p p ed 1.1 milli o n b arre ls d e spi t e t h e c u t in r e fi n e ries o u t pu t. Gasol ine p rod u c ti o n i n c rea s ed la s t w ee k , averaging 9.6 m i llion b a rre ls p er d ay w i t h t he d e ma n d fo r t h e c ommodi t y t oo sho w i n g mod er a te i n c r e ase o ver last co uple of w ee k s. As also s ta t e d earlie r , as w e e n ter i n to t he s u m mer drivi n g seaso n , w h i c h st a r ts f rom 2 6th M ay; d e ma n d fo r t h e c ommodi t y w ould c o n ti n u e to i n crease a n d li kely to d rive oil p rices h i g h er. As of early Asi a n t ra d e, p rices are tr a di n g marg i nally hi g h er a t th e WTI t hou g h in Ind i a w e are seei n g d ivergent view as p er t he c r u d e oil m o vemen t is co n c ern e d. Ru p ee mo vem e n t in do mest ic mar k e ts has b e en t h e ma i n d ri v er f o r t he c ommod i ty o ver past c ouple of sess i ons a nd w e f eel t h e similar s ta n c e is li kely to ho l d in l o c al mar k e ts fo r t he day. W hile t h e exp i ry of May mon t h c o n tract may p r om p t s hi f ti n g o f vol u m e s fo r t h e c omm o di t y, o v erall w e f eel local o il p rices mig h t co n t i nu e to u n d e r p erform th e b r o a d mo ve m e n t in t h e c o m modi t y b as k e t. H e n c e, w e h ave a dis t i n c t mo v e me nt in Indi a n a nd NY MEX c r u d e t o d ay w h er e in w e b u y N Y MEX a n d sell MCX oil Glo b al Mar k et A nalysi s: Asi a n mar ke ts h a v e ou t o f t h e s un i ts gain t h i s mor n i n g w hile t he o ver b o ug h t e n vir o n m e n t of I n dian s t o ck i n d ex p erch a n ce may d rag th e l o c al sh a re p rices lower tod ay i n t h e i n t e rve n i n g time I n dian r u p ee mi g h t also d ark a m o rsel g ai n . Th e USD i nd ex i s tra d i n g w e ll a bo ve 8 0 m ar k s w hile t he e u ro a nd th e p o u n d are tr a di n g st eady at $ 1 . 3 7 1 0 a n d $ 1 .68 2 8 res p ectively. C o mi n g to c r u de oil, J u ne f u t u res are s een tr a di n g a bo ve $ 1 0 2 m ark w hile th e B r e n t has a d van c e d to $ 1 1 0 . We are s e ei n g B rent risi n g i n t h e re c e n t past r a p i dly possibly du e to Lib ya t e nsi o n w h ile WTI g ra d e is m a nag i n g hi g h er. F o r t he d ay w e exp ect b o th t h e oil PowerPoint Presentation: gra d es may tr a d e high e r so w e su g g est buy i n g f rom l o w er levels. Th e WTI gra d e is exp i ri n g tod ay in t h e do m es tic m ar k et w hile t h e same f o r J u n e co n t r a c t is expir ing to m o rro w . H o w ever locally, b ac k ed b y Rupee f actor, oil p rice a re li k e ly to c o n ti n ue u nd e r p e r f o rm t h e i n te r n a t i onal b e n c h m ark w h ere in w e w ould su gge s t selli n g M CX oil fo r J un e co n t r act. Eco n omic d a ta - W e d o no t h ave m u c h of i m po r t a n t d at a t o d ay Natur a l Gas Commod i ty i n tr a d ay lo o k w e had a selli n g view in t h e c o m modi t y la s t d ay, p rices exte n d ed i t s b ro a d d ecli n i n g tr e nd a f t er t h e rel ease of t he w ee k ly i n v e n t o ry tal e . N o net h ele s s on Th u rsd ay, des p i t e h i gh er th a n exp ec t ed i n c r ease i n s to rage d a ta b y 1 0 5 B CF fo r t h e w eek en d e d M ay 9 p rices a t N Y MEX saw a st r on g r e b o und p r o ba b ly a m ark of s ho r t - c o verin g a f t er b i g sell-o f f i n p rices dur i n g e arli e r p art of t h e day. N evert h eless, o v e rall cues led b y lower d e ma n d a n d hig h er s t o c k s a d d i t i on co n t i nu e to p r om pt s elli n g a nd w e mai ntain o u r bearish view in t h e c ommodi t y. A d d i tio n a l su p po r t o n t he sho r t sid e c o mes w i t h th e f act th a t CFTC d a ta f o r pa s t w eek d e pi c ted h e d ge f u n ds a n d m on ey ma n agers cu t t h eir bulli s h be ts i n NG d uri n g t h e w eek e n d i n g May 1 3 . Net lo n gs t o tall e d 8 9,0 4 7 c o n tracts, do w n 1 8 . 5 % f rom n et l o n gs o f 10 9,3 34 in t h e p revi o us w eek sho w i n g mo dera t e r e du c t i on in b igg e r bul l ish b e ts f o r t he c o m m o di t y. We a r e havin g a selli n g view in i ntraday in NG w hile f eel c o n ti nue a p p r ecia ti o n in R u p ee mi g h t f u r ther a dd t o sub d u ed t r e n d in I n dia. Co mm o dity I nt r a d a y T i p s Sell Cr u d e Oil M c x J u n o n rise n ear 5 9 7 5 sl 6 0 1 5 T gt 5 9 25 Sell N a tu r al Gas M c x Ma y on ri s e near 2 6 2 sl 2 67 T gt 2 57

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