Models User Guide

Information about Models User Guide

Published on October 5, 2007

Author: Heather

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Building-Integrated and Microgrid Distributed Power Value Models Users Guide :  Building-Integrated and Microgrid Distributed Power Value Models Users Guide April 2007 DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES:  THE GALVIN ELECTRICITY INITIATIVE (GALVIN) RESERVES ALL RIGHTS IN THE MODELS AND CASE EXAMPLES AS DELIVERED. NEITHER GALVIN, THE ORGANIZATIONS LISTED BELOW, NOR ANY PERSON ACTING ON BEHALF OF ANY OF THEM: 1. MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS OF ANY PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE MODELS AND CASE EXAMPLES; OR 2. ASSUMES ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER WITH RESPECT TO ANY USE OF THE MODELS AND CASE EXAMPLES OR ANY PORTION THEREOF OR WITH RESPECT TO ANY DAMAGES WHICH MAY RESULT FROM SUCH USE. THIS NOTICE MAY NOT BE REMOVED FROM THE MODELS AND CASE EXAMPLES BY ANY USER THEREOF. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Strategic Decisions Group (SDG) Copyright © 2007 The Galvin Electricity Initiative. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES Availability::  Availability: The Building-Integrated and Microgrid Distributed Power Value Models were developed as analytical frameworks for evaluating alternative distributed power system configurations and technologies in The Galvin Electricity Initiative Phase Two, Tasks 1 and 2. In keeping with the objective to make the results and capabilities developed in the course of the Galvin initiative broadly available, these models and case examples are available for downloading without fee or license at Galvinelectricty.com. These models are: Excel™-based, using Crystal Ball™ software for probabilistic analysis; Available as non-protected-logic/worksheet case examples with user input capability; Table of Contents:  Table of Contents Overview Approach and Logic Users Guide Building-integrated Distributed Power Systems (BIPS) Microgrid Distributed Power Systems The Building-integrated (BIPS) and Microgrid models provide the capability for evaluating a wide range of current and future distributed power systems. :  The Building-integrated (BIPS) and Microgrid models provide the capability for evaluating a wide range of current and future distributed power systems. The models reflect the collaborative input of the Galvin project team and have been applied to a wide range of distributed system configurations and technologies; The models explicitly address intrinsic uncertainties in the cost and performance of alternative power system configurations and innovation technologies. Sensitivity analysis helps to identify key technological, economic, and policy drivers where resources should be allocated to increase realized consumer value and reduce investment risk. The models are comprehensive in level of detail, transparent, and flexible to changing conditions and assumptions. These models focus on productively maximizing the realized consumer and societal value electricity promises, not just minimizing the cost of electric service. These evaluation tools represent sustainable analytical capability. The Value Models embody explicit Galvin Initiative criteria and logic for evaluating distributed future perfect power systems. :  The Value Models embody explicit Galvin Initiative criteria and logic for evaluating distributed future perfect power systems. The overarching Galvin Initiative success criteria for the Perfect Power System – “It does not fail.” – is clear and unambiguous. The “does not fail” criteria translates to related and aligned value metrics for different levels and perspectives across the electric energy services value chain. For distributed power systems, the logic seeks to: Capture and quantify all potential sources of consumer and societal value creation – and destruction, including those beyond traditional cost-based accounting analysis; Enable the development of a funding curve for productively investing capital and human resources to achieve future perfect power systems. A user interface has been designed to help manage complexity, facilitate results appraisal, and accommodate model updates.:  A user interface has been designed to help manage complexity, facilitate results appraisal, and accommodate model updates. The building-integrated and microgrid value models are comprehensive and as complex as they need to be: The complexity reflects the degree of granularity in load shapes and load-shape related inputs; All sources of value, cost, and risk are quantified; The Microgrid model actively integrates connected building data and results; The User Interface immediately displays results of data changes on the input page header: Input data fields are collapsed until needed; Graphical results are displayed as well as detailed spreadsheets; Model updates are automatically applied to existing cases; An “Analysis Switch” facilitates case variations (e.g. stand-alone) The Galvin value models have been used to evaluate a range of building-integrated (BIPS) and microgrid case examples. :  The Galvin value models have been used to evaluate a range of building-integrated (BIPS) and microgrid case examples. The following cases were evaluated with a progressive build-out of technologies, in stand alone mode and utility-interconnected: Residential cases for two climate zones featuring efficiency, photovoltaic, lithium ion storage, combined heat and power; Commercial cases using micro-turbines including a hospital with combined heat and power, a premium power office building, and a convenience store; Mixed use microgrid with generation and storage sized for 150 residences with generation and storage, 50 residences without G&S, 15 commercial establishments without G&S, and one large hospital without G&S. High reliability-needs microgrid with 20 large commercial buildings with central generation and storage and individual backup and storage Results of these case studies are described in the Task 1-2 final report. Sensitivity analysis addressed many of the uncertainties and potential impacts of accelerated development of distributed technologies and systems::  Sensitivity analysis addressed many of the uncertainties and potential impacts of accelerated development of distributed technologies and systems: Generation and storage technology capital costs – the greatest value drain on decentralized system economics; Fuel cell, internal combustion engine, and small turbine heat rates; Utility and decentralized system forced outages; Energy efficiency capital cost premiums; CO2 emissions tariffs; Fuel efficiency and price volatility; Utility standby charges; Incentives and subsidies; Non-technical barriers: standards, political, regulatory, etc. Sensitivity analyses results are described in the Task 1-2 final report. Galvin project team members believe the models have applicability among several classes of users.:  Galvin project team members believe the models have applicability among several classes of users. Microgrid developers Evaluation of site specific configurations and technologies Impacts of emissions, stand-by charges, etc. Evaluation of strategic and negotiating alternatives – be careful what you wish Utilities Evaluation of potential microgrid configurations and distributed technologies from a customer perspective Distributed technology developers and investors Evaluation of the value and effectiveness of alternative technology developments and investments from a consumer decision perspective Table of Contents:  Table of Contents Overview Approach and Logic Users Guide Building-integrated Distributed Power Systems (BIPS) Microgrid Distributed Power Systems Evaluating Perfect Power Systems: The Value Proposition::  Comfort Convenience Security Quality of Life Economic Value Electricity Service ¢/kWh Electricity empowers consumer value creation many times the price consumers pay for electricity. Evaluating Perfect Power Systems: The Value Proposition: Even small compromises in electricity service quality and reliability can destroy large amounts of consumer value.:  Even small compromises in electricity service quality and reliability can destroy large amounts of consumer value. ¢/kWh $/kWh Building-Integrated Perfect Power Systems can eliminate consumer value losses and reduce the societal impacts of major outages:  Building-Integrated Perfect Power Systems can eliminate consumer value losses and reduce the societal impacts of major outages ¢/kWh Distributed Power Systems can be evaluated on the basis of consumer value realized, new value created, and societal benefits. :  Distributed Power Systems can be evaluated on the basis of consumer value realized, new value created, and societal benefits. Comfort Convenience Security Quality of Life Economic Value Sales Revenues Tax Incentives/ Rebates Customer Satisfaction Efficiency Productivity Avoided Impacts: Emissions Investment Outage Risks Billings Quality& Reliability Performance Quality & Reliability Performance Owning & Operating Costs External Services Electricity Natural Gas Connectivity Innovation Node Investments Microgrid BIPS The BIPS logic captures the relevant alternatives, relationships and uncertainties that drive net consumer and societal value.:  The BIPS logic captures the relevant alternatives, relationships and uncertainties that drive net consumer and societal value. BIPS Efficiency BIPS Forced Outage BIPS Planned Outage/ Derate BIPS Maintenance Require-ments BIPS Installed Costs BIPS Emissions Net Consumer Benefit Energy Service Potential Value Consumer Devices/ Appliances/ Processes Societal Value Added Net Change in Potential Value Energy Service Value Base Energy Consumption Building Dimensions/ Attributes Total Costs New Consumer Value Added Cost of Billed Electricity Services BIPS Costs Consumer Value Losses Cost of Load Manage-ment Cost of Service Outages BIPS Investment, O&M Costs Energy Purchased from External Suppliers Total Energy Consumption External Services Standby Charge External Services Energy Price Energy Served from BIPS BIPS Energy Availability Fuel Price Societal Value Added captures Avoided External Service Emissions, Avoided Investment, Avoided Energy, and Reduced Major Risk New Consumer Value Added captures Sales Revenues, Productivity Gains, Tax Incentives, Customer Satisfaction, and Value of Connectivity (Entertainment & Participation) Fuel Costs Curtailment Value Load Curtailment Cost of Poor Quality/ Inconvenience Electricity Service Value Loss Insurance Costs Salvage Recycling Fee Emissions Charges/ Credits BIPS Environ-ment Costs Innovation Nodes Communications Computational Ability Distributed Generation Power Electronics/ Controls Storage Efficient Appliances/ Devices Sensors System Controller The microgrid logic combines the cost and performance of connected BIPS and central microgrid capability.:  The microgrid logic combines the cost and performance of connected BIPS and central microgrid capability. Core Power Plant Forced Outage Core Power Plant Planned Outage/ Derate Core Power Plant Maintenance Require-ments Core Power Plant Installed Costs Core Power Plant Emissions Net Micro-grid Benefit Total BIPS Energy Service Potential Value Consumer Devices/ Appliances/ Processes Societal Value Added Net Change in Potential Value Total Costs New Consumer Value Added Cost of Billed Electricity Services Micro-grid Costs Consumer Value Losses Cost of Load Manage-ment Cost of Service Outages Core Power Plant Investment, O&M Costs Energy Purchased from Remote Suppliers Energy Consumption Not Served by BIPS Remote Services Standby Charge Remote Services Energy Price Energy Served from Core Power Plant Core Power Plant Energy Availability Fuel Price Societal Value Added captures Avoided External Service Emissions, Avoided Investment, Avoided Energy, and Reduced Major Risk from both the core power plant and connected BIPS New Consumer Value Added also captures Productivity Gains, Tax Incentives, Customer Satisfaction, and Value of Connectivity (Entertainment & Participation) from both the core power plant and connected BIPS Fuel Costs Curtailment Value Load Curtailment Cost of Poor Quality/ Inconvenience Core Power Plant Electricity Service Value Loss Insurance Costs Core Power Plant Salvage Recycling Fee Core Power Plant Emissions Charges/ Credits Core Power Plant Environ-ment Costs Total BIPS Costs Total BIPS Cost of Load Manage-ment Total BIPS Cost of Service Outages Micro-grid Sales Revenue Table of Contents:  Table of Contents Overview Approach and Logic Users Guide Building-integrated Distributed Power Systems (BIPS) Microgrid Distributed Power Systems Example of a Sophisticated Single Residence Building-integrated Power System (BIPS):  Example of a Sophisticated Single Residence Building-integrated Power System (BIPS) Combination Air-conditioning Unit, Heat Pump, Hot water heat Recovery System Water Heater/Storage 5 kW Generator AC Bus DC Bus Primary House Cooling Hot Potable Water Space Heating and Hot Water assist Fuel (propane) 5 kW PV Array Ultra-capacitor Storage bank Heat recovery Recovered Heat Heat Pump Based Clothes Dryer Additional House Cooling High Efficiency Lighting DC Loads Master System Controller Fuel DC Voltage Regulator and Charging control IC Engine DC to AC Inverter Heat To Water Heater Fuel Heat Ducts Backup Burner Space Heat Backup Burner The Documentation sheet distinguishes the inputs, outputs and logic sheets:  The Documentation sheet distinguishes the inputs, outputs and logic sheets Click on these buttons to go a specific sheet. Step 1: Enter Inputs Step 2: Document inputs for future reference Step 3: Generate Outputs The User Input sheet captures all numerical inputs used in the logic.:  The User Input sheet captures all numerical inputs used in the logic. Base case output value measures. Input areas are shaded in Yellow for base inputs Orange for low inputs Blue for high inputs This button brings in data from another model. It is useful for future model upgrades. The Input Documentation sheet contains information sources for the numbers entered in “User Input” sheet.:  The Input Documentation sheet contains information sources for the numbers entered in “User Input” sheet. In the models, annual energy consumption is divided into seasons and multiple load points. :  In the models, annual energy consumption is divided into seasons and multiple load points. The BIPS model considers Summer, Winter, and Shoulder Month Energy Consumption with four load points A wide range of BIPS inputs and performance attributes are similarly distributed across seasons and load points. :  A wide range of BIPS inputs and performance attributes are similarly distributed across seasons and load points. Electricity and thermal consumption can have different service values.:  Electricity and thermal consumption can have different service values. The BIPS model also captures cost and performance uncertainties.:  The BIPS model also captures cost and performance uncertainties. External Services Estimated Range of Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Office Building Estimated Range of Value Loss from 1-hour Sustained Interruption BIPS Investment and Maintenance-related costs are estimated with their associated ranges of uncertainty. :  BIPS Investment and Maintenance-related costs are estimated with their associated ranges of uncertainty. Along with other potential new sources of consumer and societal value, the model quantifies the value of connectivity. :  Along with other potential new sources of consumer and societal value, the model quantifies the value of connectivity. New Consumer Value Added The “Model” sheet contains all the calculations.:  The “Model” sheet contains all the calculations. Output value measures Inputs linked to “UserInput” sheet. Calculations for 10 years. The “Output” sheet displays numerical and graphical results. :  The “Output” sheet displays numerical and graphical results. Tornado and cumulative distribution reflects the selected output value. Click the triangle to select a different output. Crystal Ball from www.decisioneering.com is required to run the cumulative distribution. Tornado and cumulative distribution are updated after this button is clicked. Choose among “Regular House”, “BIPS Stand Alone” or “BIPS with External Backup”. Model outputs provide a variety of summary results for each case.:  Model outputs provide a variety of summary results for each case. In this commercial building case, standby charges and outage cost reduction are more important than BIPS costs. :  In this commercial building case, standby charges and outage cost reduction are more important than BIPS costs. Greater downside risks lower the expected value of the risk-return profile.:  Greater downside risks lower the expected value of the risk-return profile. Table of Contents:  Table of Contents Overview Approach and Logic Users Guide Building-integrated Distributed Power Systems (BIPS) Microgrid Distributed Power Systems Microgrid power systems integrate connected building and centralized microgrid power systems. :  Microgrid power systems integrate connected building and centralized microgrid power systems. Remote Power Systems Example of Residential Micro-Grids:  Example of Residential Micro-Grids An efficient and reliable micro-grid doesn’t need to be large or overly complex. This could be several homes or several hundred homes – the generation & storage would simply be scaled to accommodate the load. Example of Primary Network Micro-Grid Suitable for Very High Reliability Applications:  Example of Primary Network Micro-Grid Suitable for Very High Reliability Applications Heat The microgrid also can be evaluated on the basis of integrated consumer value realized, new value created, and associated societal benefits. :  The microgrid also can be evaluated on the basis of integrated consumer value realized, new value created, and associated societal benefits. Generation Storage G G Generation Storage The microgrid model actively links connected building models with central microgrid generation, storage, control, and connectivity.:  The microgrid model actively links connected building models with central microgrid generation, storage, control, and connectivity. The microgrid model’s “Documentation” sheet identifies the inputs, outputs and logic sheets.:  The microgrid model’s “Documentation” sheet identifies the inputs, outputs and logic sheets. Step 1: Define generic types of buildings that are linked to the micro-grid Step 2: Enter additional inputs pertinent to the micro-grid’s core power plant, i.e. central control system. Click on these buttons to go a specific sheet. Step 3: Generate Outputs The microgrid model’s “Documentation” sheet identifies the inputs, outputs and logic sheets.:  The microgrid model’s “Documentation” sheet identifies the inputs, outputs and logic sheets. Step 1: Define generic types of buildings that are linked to the micro-grid Step 2: Enter additional inputs pertinent to the micro-grid’s core power plant, i.e. central control system. Click on these buttons to go a specific sheet. Step 3: Generate Outputs The microgrid “Link” sheet specifies the connected building models. :  The microgrid “Link” sheet specifies the connected building models. Click on these buttons select a generic building (BIPS). Specify how many buildings are of this generic type. These inputs are brought in from the generic buildings. The linkage is accomplished through Excel formulae. Cut the linkage with external BIPS files, and paste the value in the rest of this worksheet. Re-establish the linkage with external BIPS files. The User Input sheet displays aggregated calculations from linked building models and asks for incremental microgrid inputs.:  The User Input sheet displays aggregated calculations from linked building models and asks for incremental microgrid inputs. Aggregated calculations from individual buildings selected on “Link” sheet. Incremental Micro-grid Inputs The “Model” sheet contains all the calculations for the micro-grid.:  The “Model” sheet contains all the calculations for the micro-grid. Output value measures Inputs linked to “UserInput” sheet. Calculations for 10 years. The microgrid evaluation model imports all of the relevant data and results from the BIPS models:  The microgrid evaluation model imports all of the relevant data and results from the BIPS models The model also contains micro-grid specific reliability and quality performance assessments and associated uncertainty ranges.:  The model also contains micro-grid specific reliability and quality performance assessments and associated uncertainty ranges. The Microgrid model calculates a wide range of integrated remote and microgrid-specific costs.:  The Microgrid model calculates a wide range of integrated remote and microgrid-specific costs. The model calculates integrated BIPS and Microgrid consumer and societal value creation.:  The model calculates integrated BIPS and Microgrid consumer and societal value creation. Micro-grid model outputs incorporate the changes from linked building models.:  Micro-grid model outputs incorporate the changes from linked building models. Tornado and cumulative distribution reflects the selected output value. Click the triangle to select a different output. Crystal Ball from www.decisioneering.com is required to run the cumulative distribution. Tornado and cumulative distribution are updated after this button is clicked. Choose among “Remote Grid Only”, “Microgrid Stand Alone”, or “Microgrid with Remote Backup”. The Microgrid output reflect the sensitivity of results to connected and central systems’ performance.:  The Microgrid output reflect the sensitivity of results to connected and central systems’ performance.

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