NASC PresentHanson

Information about NASC PresentHanson

Published on August 8, 2007

Author: Mahugani

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Sexual Offender RecidivismNational Associations of Sentencing CommissionsAugust 7, 2006, Philadelphia:  Sexual Offender Recidivism National Associations of Sentencing Commissions August 7, 2006, Philadelphia R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D. Corrections Research Public Safety Canada Recidivism Base Rates:  Recidivism Base Rates How many sexual offenders will commit another sex offence? What is the probability of the 'typical' sexual offender committing another sex offence? Slide3:  Average Recidivism Rates:  Average Recidivism Rates Hanson andamp; Bussière (1998) 61 studies, 4-5 years follow-up 13.4% sexual (n = 23,393) 36.3% any (n =19,374) Hanson andamp; Morton-Bourgon (2005) 73 studies, 5-6 years follow-up 14.3% sexual (n =19,267; 73 studies) 36.2% any (n = 12,708; 56 studies) US Bureau of Justice StatisticsLangan et al., 2003:  US Bureau of Justice Statistics Langan et al., 2003 Recidivism of sex offenders released from Prison in 1994 15 States, n = 9,691 Three year follow-up; rearrest for sex crime 5.3% (517 of 9,691 for sexual offenders) 1.3% (3,328 of 262,420 for other offenders) US Bureau of Justice StatisticsLangan et al., 2003:  US Bureau of Justice Statistics Langan et al., 2003 Compared to non-sex offenders, sex offenders had a lower overall rearrest rate 43% (4,163 of 9,691 for sex offenders) 68% (179,391 of 262,420 for other offenders) US Bureau of Justice StatisticsLangan et al., 2003:  US Bureau of Justice Statistics Langan et al., 2003 Rearrest for sex crime 5.0% for rapists 5.1% for child molesters Harris & Hanson (2004):  Harris andamp; Hanson (2004) N = 4,724 Sexual Offenders 10 Samples Average follow-up = 7 Years (some to 32 years) Sample sizes 191 to 1,138 Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, California, Washington, HMP (Eng. andamp; Wales), three Correctional Service of Canada data sets Recidivism - 1/2 'charges' - 1/2 'convictions' Sexual Recidivism Rates (%):  Sexual Recidivism Rates (%) Slide10:  Sexual Recidivism in a Sample of Mixed Sexual Offenders N = 4,724 Over a Twenty Year Period Percentage of Offenders that have not Sexually Recidivated over Time Time in Years Sexual Recidivism Rates (%):  Sexual Recidivism Rates (%) Slide12:  Sexual Recidivism in a Sample of Rapists N = 1,038 Over a Fifteen Year Period Percentage of Offenders that have not Sexually Recidivated over Time Time in Years Slide13:  Child Molesters A Incest offenders (N = 1,099) B Girl Victim offenders (N = 1,572) C Boy Victim offenders (N = 706) Percentage of Offenders that have not Sexually Recidivated over Time Time in Years A C B Sexual Recidivism Rates (%):  Sexual Recidivism Rates (%) Sexual Recidivism Rates (%):  Sexual Recidivism Rates (%) Actuarial Risk Scales for Sex Offenders:  Actuarial Risk Scales for Sex Offenders Empirically derived factors Explicit rules for combining risk factors MnSOST/MnSOST-R VRAG/SORAG Risk Matrix – 2000 (UK) RRASOR Static-99 RRASOR :  RRASOR Male victims Unrelated victim Prior sex offences (3 points) Age 18 - 24.99 Static-99:  Static-99 Male victims Never married Non-contact sex offences Unrelated victims Stranger victims Prior sex offences (3 points) Current non-sex violence Prior non-sex violence 4+ sentencing dates Age 18-24.99 Sexual Recidivism Rates (%):  Sexual Recidivism Rates (%) STATIC-99 Sexual Recidivism:  STATIC-99 Sexual Recidivism Observed versus Actual Rates:  Observed versus Actual Rates Not all sexual offences are detected Consequences of detection rates of 10% to 20% High frequency offenders will get caught Low frequency offenders may get caught No need to catch non-recidivists Estimated Sexual Recidivism Rates:  Estimated Sexual Recidivism Rates Slide23:  Sex Offender Risk Assessment Validation Studies (1975-2004):  Sex Offender Risk Assessment Validation Studies (1975-2004) Prediction of sexual recidivism:  Prediction of sexual recidivism Established Predictors of Sexual Recidivism:  Established Predictors of Sexual Recidivism Sexual Deviancy Deviant sexual interests (pedophilia) Sexual preoccupations Antisocial Lifestyle History of rule violation Lifestyle instability Are treated sexual offenders less likely to reoffend than untreated offenders?:  Are treated sexual offenders less likely to reoffend than untreated offenders? Reviews finding lower recidivism rates among treated sexual offender than untreated sexual offenders:  Reviews finding lower recidivism rates among treated sexual offender than untreated sexual offenders Gallagher et al. (1999) – 22 studies Hanson et al. (2002) – 43 studies Lösel andamp; Schmucker (2004) – 69 studies Hanson et al. (2002):  Hanson et al. (2002) Reductions in both sexual recidivism (17% to 10%) and general recidivism (51% to 32%) found when current treatments are evaluated with credible designs Conclusions:  Conclusions Most sexual offenders are never reconvicted for a new sexual offense Not all sexual offenders are equally likely to reoffend A number of risk assessment tools are available that have demonstrated moderate to large accuracy Offenders who attend treatment are less likely to reoffend than offenders who do not attend treatment Slide31:  R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D. Corrections Research Public Safety Canada 340 Laurier Ave., West Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0P8 [email protected] Phone 613 991 2840 Fax 613 990 8295 www.psepc.gc.ca

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