NicholasEberstadt

Information about NicholasEberstadt

Published on October 15, 2007

Author: Peppar

Source: authorstream.com

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Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe:  Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) [email protected] “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London June 22-23, 2005 Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today::  Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today: Inter-Linked Development-Impeding Characteristics Include: Pervasive Population Decline (Driven by Sharp Imbalance between Births and Deaths) Fertility Collapse (Portending “Youth Drought” and Rapid Ageing) Extreme and Rapid Population Ageing at Low Levels of GDP/Capita Serious and Enduring Health Problems, Concentrated in Economically Active Age Groups—Problems Resistant to Rapid Melioration Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm:  Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm Post-Socialist Europe’s Health and Demographic Challenges are without Historical Precedent They characterize the Whole Region (not just some States) These Dem/Health Problems are “Deeply Embedded”: i.e., Policy Interventions to address them may result in unusually Slow and Limited Gains Slide4:  Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database Female Slide5:  Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, (medium variant projection) NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe::  Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe: Fundamental Differences Today Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections):  Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections) W.Europe Russia E.Europe (w/o Russia) Population (million) 2005 431 145 143 Pop Growth %/yr 2000/2005 0.33 -0.46 -0.52 Net Reproduction Rate 2000/2005 0.72 0.62 0.58 Life Expectancy 2000/2005 (Years) 77.6 65.4 70.5 NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Slide8:  Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005. Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe:  Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe Russia Rest E.Eur. W.Eur Total Population -11.8% -12.7% + 3.8% Population 15-64 -15.4% -15.1% - 2.3% (Population 15-24) (-36.3%) (-45.3%) (-12.7%) Population 65+ +25.7% +30.4% +44.0% Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revisions, www.unpopulation.org. NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility::  Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility: Status and Future Implications For Post-Socialist Europe Total Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000:  Total Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000 Notes: U.S. TFR includes the 50 and the District of Columbia; blue bars indicate TFRs for European countries outside of the EU-15. Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," available at http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html (accessed August 4, 2004); National Vital Statistics Report Vol 52, No. 19 (May 10, 2004). Slide12:  Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Slide13:  Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Rapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations::  Rapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations: Post-Socialist Europe’s Unstoppable Wave Changes in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections):  Changes in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections) 2000 2025 Difference Western Europe 16.3 22.7 + 6.4 Bulgaria 16.6 23.2 + 6.6 Czech Republic 13.8 22.9 + 9.1 Estonia 15.0 22.7 + 7.7 Hungary 14.6 21.3 + 6.7 Latvia 14.7 20.7 + 6.0 Lithuania 13.7 21.0 + 7.3 Poland 12.3 21.6 + 9.3 Romania 13.3 19.0 + 5.7 Russian Federation 12.5 19.8 + 7.3 Slovakia 11.4 19.3 + 7.9 Ukraine 14.1 20.6 + 6.5 Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000:  Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000 Slide17:  Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp. Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), pp. 110-111. Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems::  Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems: An Anchor on Economic Development in Post-Socialist Europe Slide19:  Source: World Development Indicators, 2003 Slide20:  Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe, by Region: 1960/65 to 2000/2005 (years)                                              Overall LE        Male LE   Western Europe                +7.3                   +6.8   Eastern Europe (without Russia)                +1.1                    -0.8   Russian Federation           -2.5                    -4.2 Note: UN definition of "Eastern Europe" excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of the former Yugoslavia.  Source: Derived from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, available electronically at <http:www.unpopulation.org>. Slide21:  Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide22:  Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide23:  Source:www.mortality.org Slide24:  Source: www.mortality.org Changes in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years):  Changes in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years) Italy +5.59 East Germany* +4.62 Czech Republic +3.77 Lithuania -0.21 Latvia -0.87 Hungary* -1.01 Bulgaria -1.02 Russian Federation* -3.06 Source: www.mortality.org; *=1970-1999 Slide26:  Note: Calculations based upon current "life tables" for the year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15. Source: World Health Organization Life Tables, 2000, available at http://www3.who.int/whosis/life_tables/life_tables.cfm?path=evidence,life_tables&language=english (accessed on September 20, 2004). Slide27:  Source:www.mortality.org Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries:  Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communist Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries:  Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communist Slide30:  Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005 Slide31:  Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005 Slide32:  Source:www.mortality.org Slide33:  Source:www.mortality.org Slide34:  Source:www.mortality.org Slide35:  Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base What Is To Be Done?:  What Is To Be Done?

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