NREL

Information about NREL

Published on January 21, 2008

Author: Bianca

Source: authorstream.com

Content

NREL Site Visit Overview:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 David Keith Aimee Curtright April 13, 2005 Costa Samaras NREL Site Visit Overview Agenda:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Agenda Introduction Wind energy technology and outlook Solar energy technology and outlook NREL energy analysis modeling Introduction: Goals of Climate Center:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Introduction: Goals of Climate Center The center will characterize the (often irreducible) uncertainties about the future of the climate and energy systems and develop strategies to deal with them. Introduction: Goals of Climate Center:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Introduction: Goals of Climate Center Develop and demonstrate a set of methods to establish general limits on what can and cannot plausibly be known about the likely characteristics and performance of future energy technologies and systems, focusing especially on electric power. Issues we’ll consider include: • Emergence of dominant technologies • Path dependencies Try to understand the social implications of alternative future energy paths. Introduction: Purpose of Site Visit:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Introduction: Purpose of Site Visit The research into wind and solar energy at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is highly relevant for a low carbon future and hence highly relevant to the Climate Decision Making Center. Two-day site visit to wind and solar research centers to establish a dialogue with NREL renewable energy experts and to obtain current information on the state of wind and solar technology and markets Wind energy technology and outlook:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Wind energy technology and outlook Budget Status of wind energy market Ongoing research and specific technologies Borrowed technology Drive to offshore Moving forward – costs and issues National Wind Technology Center:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 National Wind Technology Center Budget Formed in 1981 and rededicated in 1994 as the NWTC DOE Annual Allocated Budget of $30M Approximately $15M of which is for industry contracts Additional annual fee for services of $600k Research Resources 305 acre research facility Researchers – 47 Technical – 8 Students – 16 Post Doctorates – 3 Source: NREL Wind energy worldwide growth:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Wind energy worldwide growth Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048 Rest of World = 5,147 North America = 7,241 Europe = 33,660 MW Installed Source: Prepared by NREL from sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003 Windpower Monthly, January 2005 *NREL Estimate for 2005 Turbine Evolution:  Turbine Evolution Source: NREL Cost Reductions:  Cost Reductions Source: NREL Current Costs:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Current Costs Although $1000/kW is currently widely used in the literature, NWTC says $1200-1300/kW is more accurate to account for current high steel input prices. Translates to approximately 4 - 4.5 ¢/kWh NWTC goal is 3 ¢/kWh for onshore and 5 ¢/kWh Source: NREL U.S. Wind Energy Resources:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 U.S. Wind Energy Resources Source: NREL, 1987 Improved Resource Mapping:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Improved Resource Mapping Source: NREL, Wind Powering America Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies Dynamic load modeling Dynamic stall and aerodynamic codes Permanent magnet generators Low wind speed technology New Genesis geartooth reduces bending and contact stresses Source: NREL Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies:  Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies km Modeling nocturnal wind jets at different elevations Source: NREL, Courtesy R. Banta NOAA km Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies:  Ongoing Research and Specific Technologies Capacity factors approaching high 30s, GE just surpassed 40 on new turbine “Health monitoring” of wind farms Finding O&M cost drivers New “distributed” gearbox reduces size and weight by 40% Source: NREL Source: Clipper Wind Technology Spillovers into Wind Energy:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Technology Spillovers into Wind Energy Nacelle and fiberglass blade construction techniques adapted from boat building Power electronics and silicon carbide transistors Went from $300/kW in 1994 to $70/kW now, projected to get to $40/kW Electromechanical actuation from robotics Rare earth magnets for permanent magnet generators 3000lbs of magnets in a 2MW turbine Offshore technology, monitoring and construction methods from oil and gas industry Source: NREL Drive to Offshore:  Drive to Offshore 617MW existing, 11GW planned up to 2010 Stronger, more uniform winds Construction not limited by topography Larger turbines feasible Large resource close to U.S. load centers Estimated 900 GW of potential 5-50 nautical miles off U.S. coasts, with major exclusions Boeing 747-400 Source: Musial, W & Butterfield, S. Future for Offshore Wind Energy in the United States, NREL/CP 500-36313, 2004 Source: NREL Drive to Offshore:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Drive to Offshore NREL/MIT research into offshore foundations and loading GE has strong intent to develop offshore, developing new specific designs with NREL at high cost sharing percentages (60-70%) Source: NREL Moving Forward: Costs:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Moving Forward: Costs NWTC goal is 3 ¢/kWh for onshore and 5 ¢/kWh by 2012 How to drive costs down? More accurate load predictions Bring down failure rate and O&M costs Turbine health monitoring Higher capacity factors and larger turbines Advanced power converters and electronics Cheaper manufacturing and construction methods Cheaper inputs Source: NREL Moving Forward: Issues:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Moving Forward: Issues Continuous wind forecasting improvements Need better numerics and codes; CFD and understanding of aerodynamics are still in their infancy How to handle the push to offshore What happens as wind market consolidates with major players (GE, Siemens, Vestas, etc.) Need to address transmission, regulatory, and infrastructure barriers Looking at secondary intermittent market issues Hydrogen production Water treatment/desalinization Storage Potential other uses??? Source: NREL NWTC Site Visit:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 NWTC Site Visit Solar day: topics covered:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Solar day: topics covered 2nd generation, thin-film photovoltaic (PV) technology and industry Concentrating solar power (CSP) technology, past and future deployments Energy analysis modeling (including wind) Direct hydrogen production 2nd generation, thin-film PV:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 2nd generation, thin-film PV Background Barriers Performance Production Cost projections Environmental issues Key points Background: energy from sunlight:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Background: energy from sunlight Photovoltaics (PV) Direct conversion of sunlight into electricity Broadly (geographically) available Concentrating solar power (CSP) Solar heat used to run turbine Storage and NG backup possible, only viable with high intensity, direct normal radiation Solar thermal (passive solar) Solar water and space heating Arguably cost competitive now Chemical energy storage Photosynthesis Hydrogen production – electrolysis, direct Background: PV active materials:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Background: PV active materials 1st generation: silicon, wafer-based c-Si and pc-Si 2004: ~94% of world market 2nd generation: semiconductor, thin-film a-Si and/or mc-Si CdTe, CIS 2004: ~6% of world market, mostly a-Si 3rd generation: various materials, thin-film Tandem designs Excitonic: includes dye-sensitized, polymer (organic) New semiconductor, including “low-dimensional” structures Background: efficiency vs. cost:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Background: efficiency vs. cost Source: M.A. Green, “Third generation photovoltaics: concepts for high efficiency at low cost,” Proc. Electrochem. Soc. 10 (2001) p.3.; S.E. Shaheen et al., “Organic-Based Photovoltaics: Toward Low-Cost Power Generation,” MRS Bulletin 30 (2005) p. 10. Background: system components:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Background: system components Source: REPP (Renewable Energy Policy Project), January 2005. Barriers to large-scale deployment:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Barriers to large-scale deployment Cost 3-5 in technical difficulty and feasibility Getting volume up is biggest barrier Are subsidies appropriate? Elemental availability ranks ~3-5 in technical difficulty and feasibility Toxicity of Cd is a perception issue more than a real environmental concern Intermittency/storage Ranks 10 in technical difficulty, potential cost, etc. Can we look at “just” electric power? Performance: best research efficiencies:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Performance: best research efficiencies Source: S.E. Shaheen et al., “Organic-Based Photovoltaics: Toward Low-Cost Power Generation,” MRS Bulletin 30 (2005) p. 10. (ORIGINALLY an NREL generated figure). Performance: best module efficiencies:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Performance: best module efficiencies *STABILIZED efficiency. a-Si modules experience an initial ~20% decline in efficiency, after which they experience <1% efficiency drop per year. Source: K. Zweibel, Manager, Thin Film Partnership, National Center for Photovoltaics, NREL. Thin-film PV production in U.S.:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Thin-film PV production in U.S. Production 2001: Worldwide installed capacity of all PV reaches 1 GW 2002, 2003: ~12 MW 2004: ~ 25 MW (~1.3 GW for the year worldwide) 2005: > 50 MW Companies a-Si: United Solar Ovonic, Michigan (2004: > 30 MW) CdTe: First Solar, Ohio (2004: 25 MW, 2006: 40 MW, 2007: 75 MW) CIS: Shell Solar (2004: 3 MW) US currently leads in thin-film production Thin-film PV production in U.S.:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Thin-film PV production in U.S. Source: K. Zweibel, Manager, Thin Film Partnership, National Center for Photovoltaics, NREL. Percent Year Thin-film PV production in U.S.:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Thin-film PV production in U.S. Source: K. Zweibel, Manager, Thin Film Partnership, National Center for Photovoltaics, NREL. Year Thin-film PV production in U.S.:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Thin-film PV production in U.S. Source: K. Zweibel, Manager, Thin Film Partnership, National Center for Photovoltaics, NREL. Year Costs:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Costs BOM Won’t improve much technically but through volume Today: $50/m2 → $20-25/m2 at full capacity = $0.25/Wp Active materials Active materials: = $6/m2 - 20/m2 today → CIS: $2/m2 = $0.02/Wp → CdTe: $3/m2 = $0.03/Wp Capital costs: $0.10-0.50/W → $0.05/W BOS Tuscon electric 3.5 MW installment met $1/W Inverter will come down to $0.20-0.30 /W (Today: $1.20/W) TOTAL COST: $0.70-1.00/Wp Environmental impacts & resources:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Environmental impacts & resources Energy costs Proportional to materials use BOM (glass, Al frame) Energy payback: less than 1 year Toxicity of Cd Zn mining byproduct Proper disposal/material recycling can be required Heavy metals in alternatives (i.e. coal combustion) Availability of Te, In Limited with current technology and fabrication Film thickness not optimized – could be ¼ or less Materials use not optimized Take-home points for thin-film PV:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Take-home points for thin-film PV Snapshot of quickly changing field can be misleading Learning curve: once a new technology can compete, it will win 2nd generation may be closer – and 3rd gen may offer fewer relative advantages – than you think Challenge: to establish a viable presence in the marketplace and to overcome intermittency issue CSP: technologies:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 CSP: technologies Need direct normal solar resource: ~ 6.8 GW capacity in SW, relatively close to load centers Parabolic-trough Synthetic oil in receiver transfers heat to make steam for turbine Existing and planned installation in U.S. is trough technology Power tower Thermal storage (molten salt): load following, capacity factors up to 70% “Experimentally demonstrated” Dish/engine CSP: installments:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 CSP: installments 354 MW (9 trough plants) in Mojave desert Installed 1980s-1991 ~15% hybrid with NG NV (Las Vegas): 50 MW plant, $0.24/kWh CA (Barstow): 100 MW plant, $0.16/kWh 1000 MW Western Governors’ initiative (June 2004) Energy analysis:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Energy analysis Solar Deployment Systems Model (SDS) Sensitivity analysis: use variations in physical, cost, and financial parameters to model market penetration Establish connection between market requirements and R&D efforts Separate “learning” and R&D PV, CSP, passive solar, hybrid solar lighting (Note: central station PV not included so far) Wind Deployment Systems Model (WinDS) Models capacity expansion, market penetration Includes: access to and cost of transmission, intermittency, wind resources, variations in carbon tax Use to model impacts of various policy initiatives Slide42:  Carnegie Mellon University Climate Decision Making Center NSF SES-034578 Climate and Related Decision Making in the Face of Irreducible Uncertainties For details see www.cdmc.epp.cmu.edu

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