Published on December 12, 2007
Slide1: Terrorism in the 21st Century: An Introduction DoD Disclaimer: Notes: - The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense. DoD Disclaimer Understanding the Strategy: Understanding the Strategy NATO definition of terrorism: The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious or ideological objectives Sun Tzu Know yourself Know your allies Know your enemy Sun Tzu: Know Your Enemy: Sun Tzu: Know Your Enemy What motivates terrorists? How does someone become a suicide bomber? What do these people want? What are they capable of? How do they view this struggle? “You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA Bomber Slide5: Key Terms Vision Power Belief Strategy Tactic Duty Shame Freedom fighter Self-sacrifice AB95-5.PPT // ## Slide6: Key Terms Vision – “Shape the future” Power to achieve the vision Belief in a higher cause Strategy – to compel, coerce, etc. Tactic – bombing, assassination, etc. Duty to the cause, to family, to God Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice Freedom fighter – must kill to secure freedom (?) Self-sacrifice – to be killed in the service of a higher cause is “heroic” AB95-5.PPT // ## Slide7: AB95-5.PPT // ## Primary Types Left-wing Right-wing Ethno-nationalist (separatist) Religious State State-Sponsored Defining Terrorism Left-wing Terrorists: Left-wing Terrorists Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian anti-materialist agendas Typically target elites that symbolize authority Examples: Anarchists, Earth First, Animal Liberation Front Right-wing Terrorists: Right-wing Terrorists Often target race and ethnicity Examples: Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation Ethno-nationalist/Separatists: Ethno-nationalist/Separatists Usually have clear territorial objectives Liberation/separation Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines. Examples: Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK Religious terrorists: Religious terrorists Belief in a struggle of good vs evil Acting along desires of a diety – target is thus not necessarily human Feel unconstrained by law – higher calling Complete alienation from existing socio/political order Support may be diffuse Examples: al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, Jemaah Islamiyah, Christian Militia, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Amal, Lehi, Irgun State Terrorism: State Terrorism Governments can engage in acts of terrorism Examples: Iraq, Saddam Hussein deployed chemical weapons in Kurdish villages, killing thousands Intent was to frighten other villages into stopping their political revolt It worked State-Sponsored Terrorism: State-Sponsored Terrorism Governments can also support terrorist groups that do their bidding Examples: Iran, which supports Hizballah Before 9/11, Hizballah had killed more Americans than any other terror group Embassy bombings, kidnappings, targeted assassinations, suicide attack on Marine barracks at Beirut airport Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983: Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon 23 October 1983 241 Dead 105 Injured A Brief History of Modern Terrorism: A Brief History of Modern Terrorism Roughly 130-year history 4 Waves, each roughly 40-45 years Anarchist Wave Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment Religious Inspiration Wave Issue to consider for each wave: Doctrines of terror Technology (especially for communication/propoganda) Avenues of funding and support Terrorism as Strategy: Terrorism as Strategy Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives Strategic goals include: Political change (e.g., overthrow govt., drive out occupiers, etc.) Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban) Economic change (e.g., stop resource export) Religious change (e.g., fundamentalism) Overall goal: create a “better” world Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism: Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause. Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government. Slide18: New York, World Trade Center February 26, 1993 6 Dead, 1,042 Injured Oklahoma City Murrah Federal Building, 19 April 1995 168 Dead, 490 Injured Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995: Matsumoto, Japan March, 1994 7 Dead, 34 Injured Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache. Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms. Tokyo, Japan Teito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 1995 12 Dead, 5,000 Injured Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas Attacks Japan, 1994 & 1995 Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996: Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996 19 Dead 240 Injured Slide21: American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and Tanzania August 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians dead Over 5,000 injured 1999 LAX Attack Plan: 1999 LAX Attack Plan The Strategy of Terrorism: The Strategy of Terrorism Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as: pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK open markets & cafes in Israel international airport, Sri Lanka bus in Manila, the Philippines shopping mall in southern Philippines nightclub in Bali, Indonesia banks in Istanbul, Turkey hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia nightclub in Berlin, Germany and, of course . . . New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001: New York City & Washington, DC September 11, 2001 2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured Modern Trends in Global Terrorism: Modern Trends in Global Terrorism More violent attacks (increasing lethality) Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb) Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002: Karachi, Pakistan May 8, 2002 June 14, 2002 12 Dead 50 Injured 14 Dead, including 11 French engineers Bus attack Attack on U.S. Consulate Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002: Bali, Indonesia October 12, 2002 202 Dead 350 Injured Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003: Casablanca, Morocco May 17, 2003 44 Dead 107 Injured Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003: Jakarta, Indonesia August 5, 2003 12 Dead 60 Injured J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia November 8, 2003 April 21, 2004 4 Dead 148 Injured 3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex Attack on Security Services Headquarters 17 Dead 122 Injured Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003: Istanbul, Turkey November 20, 2003 27 Dead 400 Injured Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004: Madrid, Spain March 11, 2004 191 Dead 1,035 Injured Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004: Jakarta, Indonesia September 9, 2004 9 Dead 173 Injured Australian Embassy was primary target London, UKJuly 7, 2005: London, UK July 7, 2005 54 Dead 716 Injured Strategy and Recruitment: Strategy and Recruitment Terrorism is an individual’s strategic choice most often driven by a combination of: Intense grievances Sense of crisis Address a power imbalance - empower the disenfranchised The ties that bind: training camps, extended family, social networks; trusted networks = key Combination of ideology and psychology No constraints re: geography, organizational affiliation, etc. Modern Terrorism and Recruitment: Modern Terrorism and Recruitment Overall goal: create a “better” world Powerful message for recruitment . . . Video 1 Video 2 Video 3 Video 4 Video 5 Jihad Strategy and Training: Strategy and Training Strategy and Training: Strategy and Training Afghanistan Algeria Bosnia Chechnya Colombia Egypt Indonesia Japan Kashmir Lebanon Libya Establish training camps – developing the will to kill and the skill to kill Operational space: Geographic isolation Teachers: Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g., military combat experience Committed learners Time, money, and basic necessities Northern Ireland Peru The Philippines Somalia Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Syria Turkey United States Uzbekistan Strategy and Training: Strategy and Training Psychological dimensions Moral disengagement Displacement of responsibility Disregard for/distortion of consequences Dehumanization Moral justification Group power over behavior, personal decisions Preparation for martyrdom Suicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy: Suicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy To be distinguished from:: To be distinguished from: High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent Fooled couriers Suicide – without homicide – for a political cause Definition of Suicide Terrorism Intentionally killing oneself for the purpose of killing others, in the service of a political or ideological goal Suicide Terrorism: Who?: Suicide Terrorism: Who? Perception: Generalized profile of suicide terrorists, including: Young Single Male Uneducated Religious fanatics Reality The “profile” is wrong Suicide terrorists are: Preteen - mid-sixties Both single and married with families Both male and female Both educated and uneducated Not motivated by religious fanaticism World’s leader in suicide terror are Hindu; Tamil Tigers who are conducting insurgency against Sri Lanka Trends: Most deadly form of terrorism (so far): Trends: Most deadly form of terrorism (so far) Israel: 0.5% of attacks, 56% of fatalities. U.S.: 9/11 – 10 times more deadly than any previous terrorist attack in history. Hizballah, Lebanon 1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut 1983 – attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut 1983 – attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks at the Beirut airport (241 killed) Also, suicide attacks typically get more media coverage; more “strategic communications” effect Trends: 1980s: - Lebanon - Kuwait - Sri Lanka Trends: 1980s Trends: 1990-2005: - Israel - India - Pakistan - Yemen - Algeria - Chechnya - Kenya - Tanzania - Panama - Argentina - Croatia - Australia - Turkey - Russia - Morocco - Indonesia - Saudi Arabia - Afghanistan - Indonesia - Spain - U.K. - U.S. Trends: 1990-2005 Suicide Terrorism: Why?: Suicide Terrorism: Why? Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983: Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon 23 October 1983 241 Dead 105 Injured “We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.” -- Ronald Reagan, An American Life Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective?: Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective? Suicide attacks work because they have a different structure With suicide terrorism model the weaker acts as coercer and the stronger actor is the target Key difference Target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage Slide50: Questions? Terrorism & CT: Terrorism & CT Backup slides 1) Anarchist Wave: 1) Anarchist Wave Roughly 1880s to 1920s Examples: Assassinations of Pres. McKinley, Spanish Prime Minister, etc. Doctrines: Nechaev’s Revolutionary Catechism; Bakunin; Kropotkin’s “propaganda by the deed” – words are not enough . . . Technology: communication and transportation patterns; telegraph; daily newspapers; railroads; technology shrank time and space weapons: mostly guns and knives; but invention of dynamite helped launch new terrorist capabilities Financing: Bank robberies, extortion, etc. The Terrorists’ Perspective: The Terrorists’ Perspective For one thing, al Qaeda’s leaders believes that they have been tested by two superpowers (Soviets and Americans); they defeated the first, and survived the second despite overwhelming military force – thus, both are considered victories Globally, members of this global religious-inspired insurgency believe this is an epic struggle that will likely take place beyond the current generation of fighters In Iraq, terrorists are developing a new “cult of the insurgent” by demonstrating how they, not the once-feared Saddam Hussein’s military, can inflict pain and suffering on the mighty U.S. (and coalition) forces Rationale for terrorism: perceived as only available means by which to achieve strategic goal Anarchist Wave: Anarchist Wave Tsar Alexander II (1861) frees the serfs (1/3 of Russia’s population) and promises funds for them to use to buy land Unable to provide those funds, raised expectations lead to widespread anger, disappointment, unrest; violence, assassinations Terrorists seeking to provoke state to the point where the reaction leads to popular revolt Anarchists seldom successful – but there are exceptions Tsarist Russia, Narodnaya Volya (“people’s will”) Serbia, Narodna Obrana (splinter: Black Hand) Response of several governments was to create plain-clothes police forces (FBI, Scotland Yard, Russian Okhrana, etc.); most are still in action today 1919: President Wilson authorizes round up of all Anarchists; ship to Soviet Union 1920 bombing of Wall Street 2) Anti-Colonial Wave: 2) Anti-Colonial Wave Circa 1920s – 1960s Examples Irgun (precursor to Lehi), the “Stern Gang” – Zionist extremism South Africa Vietnam? Algeria Doctrines: Freedom for indigenous peoples to decide own system, structure Anti-racism, imperialism; fewer assassinations then previous wave; attacks mainly on police, military, colonial govt. targets Technology: Faster means of communication, transportation, money transfer Financing: Diaspora support, particular from immigrants to developed Western countries 3) New Left Wave: 3) New Left Wave Circa 1960s – 1990s Examples Italian Red Brigades ETA (Spain, France) LTTE (Sri Lanka) PLO (Middle East) West German RAF (Baader-Meinhof Gang) Japanese Red Army American Weather Underground Peru (Sendero Luminoso) New Doctrines: strategies for political change, Marxism, separatism - Carlos Marighella, Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla Technology: Global sharing of new timing devices, other trigger switches for explosives Airplane hijackings New Left Wave: New Left Wave Built on widespread anti-Western political undercurrent throughout former European colonies as well as sentiments within Europe Supported by Vietnam experience Vietcong “David defeats Goliath” idea fuels other groups around the world Anti-Western political movements encouraged by Soviets, Iran, Libya, N. Korea Of course, this came back to bite the Soviets . . . Afghanistan Chechnya The “Troubles”: The “Troubles” IRA: Anti-colonial, New Left, or something else? Began the struggle during the 1920s Provisional IRA formed 1969; ceasefire 1997 “Real IRA” bombings as recent as 2003 Loyalists vs. Republicans and Protestants vs. Catholics Jackson case study of PIRA Political contexts for local support of terrorism? (policy, economics) Description of the terrorists, tactics, strategies; innovations? Targeting (e.g., mortar attack on 10 Downing street); ‘own goals’ Transition in organizational structure – why? Description of the British counterterrorism measures taken Organizational/strategic learning, evolution Successes or failures? Effectiveness in producing political change? 4) Religious Inspiration Wave: 4) Religious Inspiration Wave Current wave of terrorism Religious Cults (e.g., Aum Shinrikyo) Christian extremists Islamist extremists – Jihad Iran – 1979 revolution Afghanistan – 1980s Jihad to oust the Soviets Iraq – 2003-? Jihad to oust the Americans Doctrines: Fatwas against the West; oust them from holy lands; late 1990s shift from near enemy to far enemy Technology: Increasing sophistication of IEDs; Use of “ultimate smart bomb” (suicide terrorists) Weapons of Mass Disruption Religious Inspiration Wave – Islamic Extremism: Islam is fastest growing religion in U.S. & elsewhere; estimated over 1.2 billion followers worldwide. More than a religion: a system of laws, courts, traditions, customs, etc. to govern all aspects of life “Islam is the answer” – Muslim Brotherhood Difference in relationship w/God Lack of formal hierarchy (no “Pope”) Sunni-Shia split; Shiites reject the “truth” held by Sunnis Religious Inspiration Wave – Islamic Extremism History: Discussion Questions: History: Discussion Questions Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of political or ideological ends? Political contexts Social contexts Other options to achieve goals? Implications for government policy? History: Discussion Questions: History: Discussion Questions What motivates terrorists? Vision - “shape the future” Power to achieve vision Belief in higher cause What else? What role do economics, psychology, sociology or other grievances play in motivating terrorist groups? Slide64: Counterterrorism Strategy Post-9/11 2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach: 2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach Question: Once we understand the threat, how do we address it? Answer: We employ all the instruments of national power available to us. Military Intelligence Diplomacy Legal Information Financial Economic Intelligence: Learn from our own mistakes: Intelligence: Learn from our own mistakes We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were beyond the capabilities of terrorists Overestimated the significance of past successes & the terrorists’ own incompetence Attention was focused exclusively on opposite ends of the terrorist technological spectrum Believed terrorists were still interested in publicity and not killing Elements of the National CT Strategy: Elements of the National CT Strategy 4 D’s: Defeat terrorist organizations of a global reach Deny terrorists the sponsorship, support, and sanctuary they need to survive Diminish the underlying conditions that promote the despair and destructive visions of political change that lead people to embrace terrorism Defend against terrorist attacks on the U.S., our citizens and our interests around the world Coordination Levels: Coordination Levels Coalition Interagency Joint Army Combined Arms Slide71: National Counterterrorism Center NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from: Federal Bureau of Investigation Department of Defense Central Intelligence Agency Department of Homeland Security Department of State Others – DOE, NRC, HHS, USDA, USCHP Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent entities In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities Slide72: In NCTC, key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities Terrorism Information Access and Integration Slide73: Beyond implementing Center responsibilities, the greater goal is facilitating a counterterrorism “system” as part of a greater U.S. Government (USG) system-of-systems All USG elements need not be centralized; however, a distributed but integrated framework must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements must be as unambiguous and straightforward as possible; intentional rather than haphazard redundancy Toward a Counterterrorism “System” Slide74: Questions?