OB IDDRI 200104

Information about OB IDDRI 200104

Published on October 12, 2007

Author: Mentor

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Trade through the Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanisms : the impact of qualifying participants:  Trade through the Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanisms : the impact of qualifying participants Odile Blanchard Université Pierre-Mendès France, LEPII-EPE, Grenoble Objective and outline of the presentation:  Objective and outline of the presentation Objective : Show the impact of who qualifies to participate in the market on the permit price and traded amounts Outline : Chronological steps in the building and implementation issues of the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol Methodology Characteristics of trading countries : targets, MACs For each step, show the impact on price and quantities Building and implementing the flexibility mechanisms over time:  Building and implementing the flexibility mechanisms over time Kyoto Protocol, 1997 : Annex B (AB) : targets ; non Annex B (NAB) : no target commitment Emissions trading (among AB ratifying countries), Joint Implementation (among AB), Clean Development Mechanism (AB <----> NAB) The Hague missed compromise , 2000 : Add new categories of « carbon sinks » to the assigned amount of emissions US rejection of the KP, Bonn-Marrakech Accords, 2001: The US is out of the trading game Allocation of sinks credits for AB (except US) Up to 2004 : no ratification by Australia, nor by Russia 2005 : European Emissions Trading System Methodology (1):  Methodology (1) Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) for a given emission reduction target POLES world energy model Simulation of world energy supply and demand balance to 2030, based on 38 countries/regions demand and supply equations Projections of GHG emissions and MACs for these 38 regions. MACs built from incremental shadow taxes on energy ASPEN software : Input = POLES MACs Output = simulation of emission permit demand and supply for any specified market ; permit price Methodology (2) : Mutual benefits from trade :  Methodology (2) : Mutual benefits from trade MAC Emission Reductions QA A B A+B QB QA+QB MACA MACB MACAB Pp = Permits bought Permits sold BenefitsA BenefitsB Methodology (3): hypotheses:  Methodology (3): hypotheses CO2 only ; 2010 analysis (proxy for 2008-12) Emission reduction objectives = KP targets Emission reductions achieved either domestically, or through any of the flexibility mechanisms (depending on MAC relative to permit price) The 3 flexibility mechanisms are totally «fungible » (not earmarked) Trading on the basis of pure and perfect competition between countries Characteristics of (a few) trading countries (1):  Characteristics of (a few) trading countries (1) Characteristics of countries (2) : Russia’s and Eastern Economies in Transition’s « Hot Air »:  Characteristics of countries (2) : Russia’s and Eastern Economies in Transition’s « Hot Air » Economic slowdown in the 1990s 2010 emission projections on a business-as-usual basis : more than 30 % below 1990 emissions 2010 Kyoto Protocol target /base year : FSU, Ukraine : 0 % ; Bulgaria, Romania : -8 % ; etc… « Hot Air » low- hanging fruit = excess emissions allowances = emission reductions that will be achieved only through economic slowdown (MAC = 0), beyond the KP target : 315 MtC in 2010 The initial deal of the Kyoto Protocol:  The initial deal of the Kyoto Protocol Main assumptions : All Annex B countries participate in emissions trading (incl US and Russia) Non Annex B participate through the CDM A 10 % CDM-accessibility factor A 50 % JI-accessibility factor in Russia ; 100 % in other AB countries No sinks credits are considered Equilibrium on the emissions permit market:  Equilibrium on the emissions permit market Source : ASPEN from POLES MACs Annex B supply Annex B demand Annex B supply + CDM The Kyoto Protocol initial deal : price and trade volume:  The Kyoto Protocol initial deal : price and trade volume - Complementarity of US and Russia on the market The Hague missed compromise :  The Hague missed compromise Main assumptions : Same as for the « KP initial deal » : all AB participate; 10 % CDM accessibility ; 50 % JI accessibility on Russia ; 100 % JI acessibility in other EEEs Except for sinks : credits up to 3 % of base year emissions Costlessness of sinks The Hague missed compromise : permit price and trade volume:  The Hague missed compromise : permit price and trade volume Similar trade volume Price decrease (domestic sinks at nil cost) ; lower domestic reductions US withdrawal, Bonn-Marrakech Accords :  US withdrawal, Bonn-Marrakech Accords Main assumptions : Similar to the Missed Compromise : 10 % CDM accessibility ; 50 % JI accessibility on Russia ; 100 % JI accessibility in other EEEs ; sinks credits as in Marrakech Accords ; costlessness of sinks Participants : all Annex B countries but the US US withdrawal, Bonn-Marrakech accords : no trade, nil price:  US withdrawal, Bonn-Marrakech accords : no trade, nil price Hot Air and sinks bring more credits on the market than needed for importers No equilibrium price No abatement effort needed for Annex B (excl US) countries Negative impact of US withdrawal on Russia No ratification by Russia and Australia:  No ratification by Russia and Australia Main assumptions: Same as in the Bonn-Marrakech Accords No participation of Russia and Australia No ratification by Russia and Australia : permit price and trade volume:  No ratification by Russia and Australia : permit price and trade volume Decreasing volume of trade (US out, Russia out) Similar price as in the Hague missed compromise Trading restricted to European Union (25 countries):  Trading restricted to European Union (25 countries) Main assumptions : Same as for Bonn-Marrakech case Only EU member countries (25) can trade Trading restricted to European Union : permit price and trade volume:  Trading restricted to European Union : permit price and trade volume Lower price and traded volume Western Europe import reductions bought from Eastern Europe Comparative total abatement costs (TAC):  Comparative total abatement costs (TAC) TAC depends on volume of domestic emission reductions, MAC curve shape, volume of trade, permit price FSU : main beneficiary of revenues when US is in the game Initial Deal/ The Hague MC : impact of sinks on buyers and sellers Conclusion (1):  Conclusion (1) Impact of geographical distribution of emissions permits on price and volume of trade Impact of hot air on price and volume traded Consequently, low participation of developing countries through the CDM Complimentarity of US and Russia may explain Russia’s current hesitation to ratify KP Conclusion (2):  Conclusion (2) Further analyses : potential market power of Russia (80 % of Hot Air) if partial “banking” (carry over) of this Hot Air to second commitment period Results are only for CO2 ; quantitatively dependent on the model (type, Business As Usual assumptions, …) Simplification of complex flexibility mechanisms for this presentation Case study : theory is far from reality Want to go further on the issue ?:  Want to go further on the issue ? Further analysis in : Blanchard O., Criqui P., Kitous A. (2002).After The Hague, Bonn and Marrakech : the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air.- Grenoble : IEPE, janvier, 27 p. Cahier de Recherche n° 27bis. Online at : http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/iepe/textes/Cahier27Angl.pdf Appendix on Hot Air (as calculated by POLES):  Appendix on Hot Air (as calculated by POLES) MtC

Related presentations


Other presentations created by Mentor

Johari Window
30. 10. 2007
0 views

Johari Window

ConsolServiceCorp
28. 04. 2008
0 views

ConsolServiceCorp

astwood
22. 04. 2008
0 views

astwood

Eco24 16
17. 04. 2008
0 views

Eco24 16

wipo smes uln 07 www 89155
16. 04. 2008
0 views

wipo smes uln 07 www 89155

taiex ghymers rijen2006 ppt
14. 04. 2008
0 views

taiex ghymers rijen2006 ppt

e future
13. 04. 2008
0 views

e future

sapir 12 2007
10. 04. 2008
0 views

sapir 12 2007

cbm47 441
09. 04. 2008
0 views

cbm47 441

Ocean
07. 04. 2008
0 views

Ocean

Closing Plenary PERUGIA
30. 03. 2008
0 views

Closing Plenary PERUGIA

The Ming and Qing Dynasties
25. 03. 2008
0 views

The Ming and Qing Dynasties

fables and morals
14. 09. 2007
0 views

fables and morals

Temperate Woodland
14. 09. 2007
0 views

Temperate Woodland

NacTem2007XuUszkoreit
15. 10. 2007
0 views

NacTem2007XuUszkoreit

Leduff course 1
16. 10. 2007
0 views

Leduff course 1

WIM
16. 10. 2007
0 views

WIM

Shakespeare Presentation
19. 10. 2007
0 views

Shakespeare Presentation

Puska
07. 09. 2007
0 views

Puska

Mystery Animal
14. 09. 2007
0 views

Mystery Animal

CREATION to EVOLUTION
14. 09. 2007
0 views

CREATION to EVOLUTION

nw pall care bad news
29. 09. 2007
0 views

nw pall care bad news

SUPPLY LCS MDS
22. 10. 2007
0 views

SUPPLY LCS MDS

PRESENTACION GTI Malaga
24. 10. 2007
0 views

PRESENTACION GTI Malaga

ethics health disparities
29. 10. 2007
0 views

ethics health disparities

halt
23. 10. 2007
0 views

halt

BTL Fuels
16. 11. 2007
0 views

BTL Fuels

2005 CeladrinLecture
17. 11. 2007
0 views

2005 CeladrinLecture

newsletters
05. 10. 2007
0 views

newsletters

Moscow Presentation
23. 11. 2007
0 views

Moscow Presentation

6 338 Progress Presentation
28. 12. 2007
0 views

6 338 Progress Presentation

6 01 T P Analog Systems
03. 01. 2008
0 views

6 01 T P Analog Systems

Prepare Yourself
04. 10. 2007
0 views

Prepare Yourself

idruspresentation
07. 01. 2008
0 views

idruspresentation

8p
24. 10. 2007
0 views

8p

stewart
08. 10. 2007
0 views

stewart

lizhitang
11. 10. 2007
0 views

lizhitang

Inter scholastic Sports
09. 07. 2007
0 views

Inter scholastic Sports

High School Athletics
09. 07. 2007
0 views

High School Athletics

4479
09. 07. 2007
0 views

4479

42 sp101
09. 07. 2007
0 views

42 sp101

2005 Flag Football Clinic
09. 07. 2007
0 views

2005 Flag Football Clinic

lec TC strain gauge
16. 02. 2008
0 views

lec TC strain gauge

SNAP Propulsion
07. 11. 2007
0 views

SNAP Propulsion

Legend Powerpoint
28. 02. 2008
0 views

Legend Powerpoint

lect10
14. 09. 2007
0 views

lect10

bec
15. 10. 2007
0 views

bec

APS NW Poster
12. 03. 2008
0 views

APS NW Poster

UofWfAC06
10. 03. 2008
0 views

UofWfAC06

DrFlock
09. 07. 2007
0 views

DrFlock

health sports
09. 07. 2007
0 views

health sports

ASTR 2006 Presentation Template
29. 10. 2007
0 views

ASTR 2006 Presentation Template

4 DSM Design Guide
02. 01. 2008
0 views

4 DSM Design Guide

LiuhtoBaltic04
26. 10. 2007
0 views

LiuhtoBaltic04

STKU5 Larson
19. 06. 2007
0 views

STKU5 Larson

standard email
19. 06. 2007
0 views

standard email

Software Versions
19. 06. 2007
0 views

Software Versions

SDT Tech Briefing06 01 07
19. 06. 2007
0 views

SDT Tech Briefing06 01 07

SDT Tech Briefing
19. 06. 2007
0 views

SDT Tech Briefing

refresh cycle07
19. 06. 2007
0 views

refresh cycle07

Q2 FY07 Slides
19. 06. 2007
0 views

Q2 FY07 Slides

Q1 FY07 Slides
19. 06. 2007
0 views

Q1 FY07 Slides

psj 0 6 yukai e
19. 06. 2007
0 views

psj 0 6 yukai e

psj 06 schoenfeld e
19. 06. 2007
0 views

psj 06 schoenfeld e

PRI050 WH06
19. 06. 2007
0 views

PRI050 WH06

portal
19. 06. 2007
0 views

portal

usc csci 530 f06 l13
19. 06. 2007
0 views

usc csci 530 f06 l13

BOSC Markel
14. 09. 2007
0 views

BOSC Markel

PresentationBA avril06
23. 10. 2007
0 views

PresentationBA avril06

volvo 09
29. 02. 2008
0 views

volvo 09

qz qc mrt ridership
26. 03. 2008
0 views

qz qc mrt ridership

3a 3 Hellsten
14. 09. 2007
0 views

3a 3 Hellsten

1 IARU DoAST Presentation
09. 07. 2007
0 views

1 IARU DoAST Presentation

sicily03
19. 06. 2007
0 views

sicily03

norway
14. 12. 2007
0 views

norway

1999KC os tri
09. 07. 2007
0 views

1999KC os tri

Virgo Sigrav2004 SF
15. 11. 2007
0 views

Virgo Sigrav2004 SF

RICyT Innocom
25. 10. 2007
0 views

RICyT Innocom

Telekomunikacja Polska 1
14. 09. 2007
0 views

Telekomunikacja Polska 1

sas06 das
19. 06. 2007
0 views

sas06 das

parallel session 1
07. 09. 2007
0 views

parallel session 1

Kestrel PI Presentation
30. 10. 2007
0 views

Kestrel PI Presentation

Ch10rev 06
19. 02. 2008
0 views

Ch10rev 06

DemoStudents2005
03. 10. 2007
0 views

DemoStudents2005

interiorscapeplants2
07. 12. 2007
0 views

interiorscapeplants2

PRS328 Schechter
19. 06. 2007
0 views

PRS328 Schechter

ASEAN China
10. 10. 2007
0 views

ASEAN China

tpa 6040a4 overview
19. 06. 2007
0 views

tpa 6040a4 overview

2006 AHM Dissemination Update
17. 10. 2007
0 views

2006 AHM Dissemination Update

Bhat
21. 11. 2007
0 views

Bhat

Aho ealta2006
07. 09. 2007
0 views

Aho ealta2006

Fairness
14. 09. 2007
0 views

Fairness

Ch22
15. 11. 2007
0 views

Ch22

Ready Boost
19. 06. 2007
0 views

Ready Boost

05 asphalt institute
26. 02. 2008
0 views

05 asphalt institute

LightGina
20. 03. 2008
0 views

LightGina

Working Water Conaway
28. 12. 2007
0 views

Working Water Conaway

HERDING101Presentati on
19. 11. 2007
0 views

HERDING101Presentati on

currentshow
02. 11. 2007
0 views

currentshow

flowes class4
11. 12. 2007
0 views

flowes class4