Poster AMS final

Information about Poster AMS final

Published on January 22, 2008

Author: Dorotea

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Slide1:  JP4.19 18th Conference on Hydrology & 48th Annual AMS Meeting Washington State Convention and Trade Center, Seattle January 11-15, 2004 Stream gage stations Discharge, 1000 x m3/s GEOSPATIAL DATA LAYERS WORK IN PROGRESS: A) Development of a Coupled Models Package of Land Surface Schemes (COMPASS) VIC Macro-scale Hydrologic Model (water and heat transfer) River Network Radar-based Relations of Stage- flow-inundation Vegetation classes and parameters Soil classes and parameters Atmospheric Forcing Q Hydrographs [C] time Chemographs S Sediment fluxes time time ROMBUS Chemistry Scheme STS Sediment Transport Scheme SSFS Sub-Surface Flow Scheme RRS Runoff Routing Scheme INPUTS OUTPUTS COMPASS: Package of COUPLED MODELS ~ B) Application to the Amazon Basin with Daniel Victoria (CENA, Sao Paulo, Brazil) and Emilio Mayorga (U. of Washington, Seattle, WA) B) Modelled network The 5 arc- min network was obtained from the 30 arc-sec network (from GTOPO-30) using an “upscaling” technique. C) Soils (%sand, %clay and bulk density for each soil layer are the variables required by the VIC model) Above: Soil data at 5 arc-min resolution from IGBP, used in the current VIC simulations. Above : Higher resolution soil type data from the Mekong River Commission: to be used in our future (“next level”) VIC simulations. E) Leaf Area Index monthly average values at 5 arc-min resolution from the MODIS validated data for 2000/01. D) Vegetation Cover at 5 arc-min resolu- tion from MODIS satellite data for 2000/01, combined with OGE satellite data for location of rice and irrigation The fraction of a grid cell containing rice, and irrigation, was determined by sensus data from FAOSTAT and IRRI A) Topography (from GTOPO-30) The observed network is also shown (Mekong River Commission, 2003) The VIC macroscale hydrologic model (Liang et al., 1994) solves the water and energy balance equations at the land surface. Land cover variability is represented by partitioning each grid cell into multiple vegetation types, and the soil column is divided into multiple (typically three) soil layers. The saturation excess mechanism, which produces direct runoff, is parameterized through a variable infiltration curve. Release of baseflow from the lowest soil layer is controlled through a non-linear recession curve. VIC MACROSCALE HYDROLOGIC MODEL INTRODUCTION: Landcover/Management Change in the Mekong Basin Among the most salient contemporary issues regarding the stream flow regime of large basins, in the face of Global Change, is the dynamics of interaction between climate variability and changes in land cover and management. A particularly sensitive region is Southeast Asia. Stream flow regulation, deforestation, and expansion of agriculture and irrigation have the potential to affect stream flow patterns in the Mekong river basin (795,500 km2; over 55 million inhabitants) and its tributaries, with considerable environmental, social and economic impacts. Our objective is to examine the underlying dynamic of runoff generation and routing in the basin, and to use that understanding to ultimately predict its response to change. How does land use intensification affect watershed functions in large-scale drainage basins? Would switching land cover back to forest change flow regimes? How does total water yield depend on the distribution of rainfall and different hydrologic processes, under historical or future scenario conditions? How do upstream land cover and management changes affect those living downstream through altered total and seasonal water yields and peak flows? MEKONG BASIN for the Daily precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center “Summary of the Day” data. Data from 279 stations (see figure) were interpolated. Daily average wind speed was obtained by interpolation of the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al., 1996). RESERVOIRS RESULTS Observed stream flows for 1979-2000 were obtained from the Mekong River Commission and from the Global Runoff Data Centre (Koblenz, Germany), for the stations in the figure. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Models/VIC/ SIMULATION OF HISTORICAL PERIOD 1979-2000 (0.87) (1.04) (0.83) CONCLUSIONS While these results are preliminary, and additional work is required for result interpretation, some clear messages already arise. The Mekong basin is indeed subject to a modification in flow regime, due to both climate variability and land use/management changes. There is significant evidence that “far field effects” are indeed taking place, resulting in a greater variability of the flow regime, with an enhanced potential for flooding. Conversion of forest to crops increases annual water yield, through reduction in evapotranspiration (although irrigated agriculture has an offsetting effect), and through reduction in soil infiltration capacity (the latter not simulated). The ability of the VIC model to reproduce hydrographs, and high and low season flows in particular, as a function of climate and land use and management, speaks to its applicability to a decision-support system, particularly if coupled to a climate model. REFERENCES: (1) Kalnay, E., and Co-authors (1996): The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77, pp. 437-471; (2) Liang, X., D.P. Lettenmaier, E.F. Wood, and S.J. Burges (1994): A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for General Circulation Models. J. Geophysical Research 101, 21403-21422. ACKNOWLDEGEMENTS: The work was supported by NSF, SEA/BASINS (UW/CU), the World Bank Netherlands Partnership Program and the Mekong River Commission. Findings and interpretations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, MRC, or the countries they represent. The Mekong Water Management Model considers the major existing dams of Manwan, Dachaoshan, Nam Ngum, and Pak Mun. Reservoir cross-section is assumed rectangular. The sole operational target to be met by a hydropower dam was observed (or designed) power output, while dams that are also used for hydropower the additional target of meeting simulated irrigation was added. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MODELLING THE IMPACT OF LANDCOVER/MANAGEMENT CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE STREAM FLOWS OF LARGE RIVER BASINS: Application to the Mekong Basin Jeffrey E. Richey†, Mariza Costa-Cabral‡, Gopalakrishna Goteti ‡,§, Riyadh Al Soufi*, Dennis P. Lettenmaier‡, Sarah D. Rodda†, S.S.Im ¥, and A. Snidvongs± †Department of Chemical Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195; ‡Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195; § Now at Princeton University, Princeton NJ 08544; ¥ Mekong River Commission (MRC), Phnom Penh, Cambodia; *Formerly at MRC; ± Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand (A -6.5˚C/km lapse rate was used to adjust for elevation.) The calibration period was 1979-1988. Results for the 1979-2000 simulation period are displayed in red below; observed flows are in blue. Hydrologic fluxes and soil moisture (SM) for the Mun-Chi River (Thai tributary of the Mekong), at Ubon; and at Stung Treng. Green line superimposed on Q is the daily observed discharge. Red dashed line tracks the largest peak flows. SIMULATION FOR REFORESTATION SCENARIO FOR MUN-CHI SUB-BASIN The Mun-Chi sub-basin (Northeast Thailand) is almost entirely converted to cropland. We used the VIC model calibrated for the 1979-1988 historical period to simulate the hypothetical scenario where the entire sub-basin is again re-forested. The same 1979-2000 historic record meteorological forcing was used. Scenario results (in green) are compared to the historical simulation (in red). Mun-Chi sub-basin, at Ubon Historical flow records for several stations (the longest is 1910-2002 for the Stung Treng station) exhibit year-to-year variability as well as a harmonic pattern with a period of 20 ±5 years. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN STAGE RECORDS Q (1,000 x m3/s) The figure to the right shows the mean, maximum, and minumum stage levels at Stung Treng. We used the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test for a monotonic trend. Test results do not indicate a signific- ant trend for mean stage. They do. However. indicate Stung Treng Q (1,000 x m3/s) significant increase in low flows, as well as increased variance (excursions from the long-term mean – red line in the figure is 1910-1960 period mean) over the latter half of the century (also pronounced at the northerly Chiang Saen station). Different factors may be at play, from climate shifts, to land use changes, to increase in irrigation (especially in rice paddies). (0.43) (0.90) Results of the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test for linear trends over time for Stung Treng monthly mean stage records, over the periods 1910-1959 and 1960-2000. Dots are data points, the blue line is the residual in the analysis, Fine blue and red dotted lines are confidence intervals. +++ indicates significant at .001 level, ++ at the .05 level, for increasing↑ or decreasing trends (Figure by the Mekong River Commission, 2003) M-K Test for Maximum Stage M-K Test for Minimum Stage

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