Published on May 20, 2016
1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index declined 127.46 points, or 1.28% during the week to close at 9,813.96. Market capitalization decreased by 1.31% to QR528.1 billion (bn) versus QR535.1bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 12 companies ended the week higher, while 30 fell and only 2 remained unchanged. Gulf International Services (GISS) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 5.8% on 8.0 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Co. (QCFS) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 7.8% on 320 shares traded only. Ezdan Holding Group (ERES), QNB Group (QNBK) and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index decline. ERES was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly drop, shedding 35.7 points from the index. QNBK was the second biggest contributor to the decline, erasing 26.5 points from the index. Moreover, MARK deleted 17.8 points from the index. On the other hand, Qatar Insurance Co. (QATI) contributed positively to the index, adding 13.7 points to the index. Trading value during the week decreased by 4.0% to reach QR1.34bn versus QR1.39bn in the prior week. The Industrials sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 36.6% of the total trading value. The Banks and Financial Services sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 28.3% of the total trading value. GISS was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR300.6mn. Trading volume increased by 8.5% to reach 43.0mn shares versus 39.6mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 8.7% to reach 22,522 transactions versus 24,661 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 32.0%, followed by the Industrials sector, which accounted for 29.1% of the overall trading volume. GISS was also the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 8.0mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net buying of QR80.9mn vs. net buying of QR84.3mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR85.8mn vs. net selling of QR89.4mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR2.5mn vs. net selling of QR2.6mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR7.4mn vs. net buying of QR7.7mn the week before. In 2016 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$415mn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended May 19 , 2016 Week ended May 12 , 2016 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,335.3 1,391.6 (4.0) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 528,072.8 535,090.2 (1.3) Volume (mn) 43.0 39.6 8.5 Number of Transactions 22,522 24,661 (8.7) Companies Traded 44 43 2.3 Market Breadth 12:30 33:9 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 15,878.33 (1.3) (3.7) (2.1) ALL Share Index 2,744.67 (1.2) (3.4) (1.2) Banks and Financial Services 2,630.85 (1.4) (3.9) (6.2) Industrials 3,070.67 (0.9) (2.6) (3.7) Transportation 2,507.52 (0.2) (1.2) 3.1 Real Estate 2,432.96 (2.0) (4.6) 4.3 Insurance 4,191.80 2.5 (3.5) 3.9 Telecoms 1,100.79 (3.3) (5.3) 11.6 Consumer Goods & Services 6,539.69 (2.3) 0.0 9.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,859.19 (2.0) (2.7) 0.1 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 9,813.96 (1.3) (3.7) (5.9) 277.60 145,008.8 13.4 1.5 4.2 Dubai 3,229.87 (3.4) (7.5) 2.5 300.21 87,656.8# 10.7 1.2 4.4 Abu Dhabi 4,235.38 (3.5) (6.8) (1.7) 157.85 120,212.1 11.2 1.4 5.8 Saudi Arabia# 6,737.40 0.6 (1.0) (2.5) 7,133.63 411,815.7 15.6 1.6 3.6 Kuwait 5,324.05 (1.3) (1.3) (5.2) 196.30 80,536.6 17.4 1.0 4.8 Oman 5,931.00 (0.6) (0.2) 9.7 59.53 23,485.9 11.3 1.3 4.3 Bahrain 1,102.56 (0.8) (0.7) (9.3) 4.82 17,356.0 9.2 0.4 4.9 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; #Data as of May 18, 2016) 9,950.37 9,996.45 10,010.67 10,009.95 9,813.96 0 6,000,000 12,000,000 9,700 9,900 10,100 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May Volume QSE Index 0.6% (0.6%) (0.8%) (1.3%) (1.3%) (3.4%) (3.5%)(5.0%) (3.0%) (1.0%) 1.0% 3.0% SaudiArabia Oman Bahrain Qatar(QSE)* Kuwait Dubai AbuDhabi
2. Page 2 of 6 News Economic & Corporate News Gokkent: Qatar fuel price reform is a positive trigger for economy – The dismantling of administered domestic fuel price mechanism, which became effective from May 1, 2016, is expected to be positive for the Qatari economy but could have ‘one-off’ impact on inflation. According to senior economist (Middle East and Africa) of Washington-based Institute of International Finance Giyas Gokkent, “Given that fuel subsidies create a deadweight loss because low fuel prices lead to higher consumption at the expense of lower exports, the removal of the fuel subsidy is positive for the economy.” Observing that Qatar’s fuel subsidies were at the low end of the spectrum in the Gulf estimated at less than 1% of non- oil gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, he said the fuel subsidies were implicit, but their removal will allow higher dividends from state hydrocarbon companies than would have been the case if subsidies remained. Qatar’s move is on the back of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) asking the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries to address the issue of subsidy removal in view of falling oil prices. (Gulf-Times.com) VFQS reports net loss of QR180.06mn in 4QFY2016 – Vodafone (VFQS) reported a higher net loss of QR180.06mn in 4QFY2016 compared to a net loss of QR72.16mn in 3QFY2016 and our net loss estimate of QR88.9mn. However, we note that the reported loss included roughly QR32mn in losses from disposal of PP&E. The company’s revenue declined to QR516.1mn in 4QFY2016 (from QR537.2mn in 3QFY2016), in-line with our estimate of QR540.2mn. EBITDA declined to QR58.31mn in 4QFY2016 (from QR131.8mn in 3QFY2016). Total mobile customers stood at 1,548,000 at the end of March 2016, an increase of 7% compared to March 2015. Mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) was QR107, down 13% on YoY basis. Further, the company announced it will not pay any dividend for FY2016 which was in-line with our expectations. (QNBFS Research, Company financials) Moody's downgrades Alternatifbank's long-term deposit ratings to Ba1, outlook negative Rating action follows downgrade of parent's standalone rating – Moody's Investors Service downgraded the local and foreign-currency deposit ratings of Alternatifbank A.S. (ABank) to Ba1/Not-Prime from Baa3/Prime-3. The bank's long- term foreign-currency subordinated debt rating have also been downgraded to Ba3(hyb) from Ba2(hyb). The outlook for the long-term deposit ratings is negative. Moody's has also downgraded ABank's Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment to Baa3(cr)/Prime-3(cr) from Baa2(cr)/Prime-2(cr) and its adjusted baseline credit assessment (BCA) to ba1 from baa3. The ba3 BCA of ABank is confirmed. The downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that following its recent downgrade, The Commercial Bank (Q.S.C.) (deposits A2, stable/P-1; BCA baa3), ABank's Qatar based parent, is now in a weaker position to provide support to ABank in case of need. The primary driver for the rating action is the weakening capacity of ABank's Qatar-based parent, The Commercial Bank (Q.S.C.), to provide support following the downgrade of The Commercial Bank's BCA to baa3 from baa2. (Moody’s) UDCD shareholders approve raising percentage of non-Qatari ownership to 49% – United Development Company’s (UDCD) extraordinary general assembly meeting (EGM) approved an amendment that facilitates increasing the percentage of non- Qatari ownership in the company’s shares to 49% instead of 25%. This is in accordance with law number (09), 2000, regulating the investment of non-Qatari capital in the economic activity. The meeting also approved an amendment of the company’s Articles of Association to comply with the Commercial Companies Law No. (11) 2015, and the Corporate Governance Code No. (4) 2014, while authorizing the company’s chairman to approve these amendments. (Gulf-Times.com) DHBK to open two more branches in India – Doha Bank (DHBK) will strengthen its presence in India by opening two more branches soon. The bank is expecting to open the first branch by mid of this year, while it is planning to relocate the second branch. DHBK had acquired these two branches from HSBC Bank Oman in 2014. Meanwhile, the bank said it expects to see consolidation in its GCC operations in 2016. The bank is still eyeing expansion into new markets that may potentially include Iran. In terms of GCC operations, DHBK CEO R. Seetharaman, said that he expects to see consolidation in financial performance during the rest of this year as lower oil prices take a toll on the bank, which is implementing cost-cutting measures. He further commented that the bank is working on reducing its cost-to-income ratio to 33% from 35% in 1Q2016 and 37% last year. He added, “Wherever we need to scale down in terms of operating costs, staff costs, or occupancy costs, we’re doing it. We’re organizing the retail and scaling down staff spends.” (Peninsula Qatar, Gulf-Base) Deal with DSV to broaden QNNS global footprint – Qatar Navigation (QNNS) and DSV, a Denmark-based global transport and logistics services provider, have signed an agreement, under which, QNNS will become the exclusive agent for DSV in an effort to broaden its global footprint. The agreement will significantly expand QNNS’s presence on the global logistics scene and will provide access to over 1,000 offices, terminals, and warehouse facilities in over 80 countries. On the other hand, DSV Middle East Regional Director and UAE Managing Director, Michael Carstensen said, “As a customer-focused organization, the cooperation with QNNS will enable us to reach our customers in one of the fastest developing economies in the Middle East. We are looking forward to the synergies that will result from this agreement”. (Gulf-Times.com) EIR: Qatar slated to see near-term ‘pressure’ on banking sector profitability – According to Edison Investment Research (EIR), Qatar’s economic growth is expected to outpace the Gulf region as a whole, particularly in 2016 and in 2017. The country may see near-term “pressure” on profitability in its banking industry, but a lack of large write-downs suggests lower stress in the system. Further, EIR said, the Qatari stock market is trading below its long-term average forward P/E (price earning) multiple and offers an attractive dividend yield. A change in the status of the market by FTSE Russell should lead to about $850mn passive investments into Qatari equities, whose client is London Stock Exchange-listed Qatar Investment Fund (QIF). EIR added that although there has been a liquidity squeeze, which is putting near-term pressure on the profitability of banks, a lack of large write-downs suggests that there is not much stress in the system; adding government funding is in place during 2016, which should alleviate the liquidity squeeze. (Gulf-Times.com) Moody’s confirms Qatari project finance ratings – Moody’s Investors Service confirmed the ‘Aa3’ guaranteed senior secured debt ratings of Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co. Ltd (II) (RasGas II), and Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co. Ltd (3) (RasGas 3). Moody’s also confirmed the ‘Aa3’ senior secured debt ratings and the ‘A1’ senior subordinated debt rating of Nakilat (QGTS). The outlook on the ratings is “negative”. This concluded the reviews for downgrade that were initiated on March 9, 2016. (Peninsula Qatar)
3. Page 3 of 6 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 5.8% 5.4% 2.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Gulf International Services Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Qatar Insurance Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar Industrial Manufacturing -7.9% -6.8% -6.2% -4.7% -4.5% -9.0% -6.0% -3.0% 0.0% Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Widam Food Co. Qatar Islamic Insurance Medicare Group Qatari Investors Group 300.6 128.4 85.4 69.2 63.4 0.0 150.0 300.0 450.0 Gulf International Services Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar Widam Food Co. Qatar First Bank 8.0 7.6 5.1 3.8 2.2 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 Gulf International Services Vodafone Qatar Qatar First Bank Masraf Al Rayan National Leasing 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 46.90% 46.29% 20.05% 16.18% 16.38% 16.35% 16.67% 21.18% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 894 437 834 501 60 (64) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
4. Page 4 of 6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QSE Index closed down by 1.28% at 9,813.96 vs the week before on slightly higher volumes, which might indicate a concern. The bearishness of the Index remains in effect and traders should be on alert, especially if the Index breaches the 9,700 level. The expected resistance remains at 10,500 points and the support at 9,500 points. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
5. Page 5 of 6 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (May 19) % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 136.10 (1.73) (6.67) 114,280 10.0 1.9 2.6 Qatar Islamic Bank 95.00 (2.06) (10.97) 22,448 11.1 1.5 4.5 Commercial Bank of Qatar 37.20 1.64 (18.95) 12,151 11.4 1.0 8.1 Doha Bank 35.60 (1.66) (20.00) 9,198 7.8 1.0 8.4 Al Ahli Bank 42.50 0.00 (3.09) 8,109 12.6 1.8 3.5 Qatar International Islamic Bank 61.00 (1.29) (5.13) 9,233 11.6 1.8 6.6 Masraf Al Rayan 33.20 (2.06) (11.70) 24,900 11.9 2.2 5.3 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 16.85 0.60 (6.23) 6,066 9.5 0.9 5.9 Qatar First Bank 12.30 0.41 N/A 2,460 N/A N/A N/A National Leasing 17.77 (0.73) 26.03 879 N/A 0.8 2.8 Dlala Holding 22.78 0.09 23.20 647 N/A 1.9 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 11.28 (1.05) (8.29) 355 19.4 1.1 5.3 Islamic Holding Group 67.90 (1.59) (13.72) 385 110.8 4.7 2.2 Banking and Financial Services 211,111 Zad Holding 86.60 0.12 2.12 1,133 11.8 1.3 4.6 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 12.21 0.91 (11.01) 141 N/A 1.4 N/A Salam International Investment 11.15 0.09 (5.67) 1,275 11.0 0.7 9.0 Medicare Group 102.00 (4.67) (14.50) 2,871 19.8 3.0 1.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 35.00 (7.89) 2.94 220 16.3 1.7 4.3 Qatar Fuel 154.00 (1.35) 12.76 14,047 11.2 2.2 4.9 Widam Food Co. 58.60 (6.84) 10.98 1,055 13.5 3.7 4.6 Al Meera Consumer Goods 213.50 (3.39) (2.95) 4,270 25.9 3.4 4.2 Consumer Goods and Services 25,011 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 40.40 1.00 1.38 1,920 10.4 1.4 7.4 Qatar National Cement 86.90 (0.11) (6.28) 5,163 11.2 1.8 4.2 Industries Qatar 99.10 (1.39) (10.80) 59,956 14.3 1.9 5.0 Qatari Investors Group 51.00 (4.49) 35.28 6,341 24.1 2.7 2.5 Qatar Electricity and Water 205.70 (1.86) (4.94) 22,627 15.0 3.3 3.6 Mannai Corp. 89.00 (1.66) (6.61) 4,060 8.2 1.8 5.6 Aamal 13.30 (0.82) (4.93) 8,379 13.2 1.1 N/A Gulf International Services 36.75 5.76 (28.64) 6,830 13.0 1.8 2.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 18.60 0.54 (4.12) 23,368 19.6 1.7 3.8 Industrials 138,642 Qatar Insurance 77.00 2.67 10.75 15,637 15.3 2.9 2.8 Doha Insurance 19.80 (1.00) (5.71) 990 9.2 0.9 5.1 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 47.00 5.38 1.17 4,113 4.6 0.7 2.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 25.40 (1.55) (16.72) 648 21.6 1.2 3.9 Qatar Islamic Insurance 58.00 (6.15) (19.44) 870 12.3 2.9 6.8 Insurance 22,259 United Development 18.78 0.00 (9.49) 6,650 9.7 0.6 8.0 Barw a Real Estate 31.80 (1.09) (20.50) 12,374 27.2 0.7 6.9 Ezdan Real Estate 17.55 (2.55) 10.38 46,551 26.6 1.5 2.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 13.95 (2.11) 3.15 1,538 13.7 1.1 2.0 Real Estate 67,113 Ooredoo 87.10 (3.33) 16.13 27,900 11.2 1.3 3.4 Vodafone Qatar 11.22 (3.28) (11.65) 9,485 N/A 1.9 1.9 Telecoms 37,385 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 88.90 (0.11) (6.42) 10,181 9.3 0.8 5.6 Gulf Warehousing 61.80 (0.32) 8.61 3,622 16.8 2.7 2.4 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 23.01 (0.17) (1.46) 12,748 12.8 3.9 5.4 Transportation 26,551 Qatar Exchange 528,073
6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6