RISK AND OPPORTUNITY joseph iyanda

Information about RISK AND OPPORTUNITY joseph iyanda

Published on July 22, 2014

Author: xcellenx

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RISK & OPPORTUNITY: RISK & OPPORTUNITY Earthquake zone is an Alluvial soil for farming prosperity Submitted by IYANDA Joseph Adewale to the World Bank’s Mooc The Conclusion of the whole matter: The Conclusion of the whole matter For households we recommend universal health insurance, and conditional cash transfers. For communities, we recommend public infrastructure and services that can be implemented with the collaboration of local communities. For enterprises, we recommend streamlining regulations and improving public services so that both flexibility and formality in the economy can be advanced. For the financial system, we recommend macro prudential policies to diminish the risk of a systemic financial crisis. For the macroeconomy, we recommend countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies to reduce the impact of shocks coming from inside or outside the economy. And for the international community, we recommend an incremental approach towards global agreement, especially when we have to deal with complex global risks, such as climate change and global warming. Drought, Flood, Saving, and Sharing: Please Conserve natural Water : Drought, Flood, Saving, and Sharing: Please Conserve natural Water Remember Irish Potato Famine: Remember Irish Potato Famine 1845-1849 potato blight 1 million died of starvation 1.5 million emigrated Ireland a colony of England Exported wheat and beef to England Peasants had small plots of potatoes Famine: wheat and beef still exported Peasants did not own the land Starved in the midst of plenty They did not own Europe also had blight but starvation only in Ireland British policies Take Action Fight for Climate Justice : Take Action Fight for Climate Justice Over the past 30 years, the Turkana people of northwest Kenya have experienced a 25 percent average decrease in annual rainfall. In the former Soviet states of central Asia, countries like Tajikistan have experienced extreme drought, paradoxically coupled with floods and landslides. And in Bangladesh, where scientists have warned that a rise in sea level may flood 20 percent of their land, typhoons and floods have already increased in severity. The outlook is frightening. But maybe that’s why climate change is finally getting the attention it deserves. Establish fair solutions. Prevention is better than cure: British Army enforced food export during Irish potato famine http://www.irishholocaust.org/1024-map.gif/1024-map-full.jpg Prevention is better than cure Remember: Great Famine, India 1876-8: Remember: Great Famine, India 1876-8 India a British Colony British policies: Land converted to British plantations Exports of crops to Europe Taxed India to support British wars Price of food rose Drought decreased production British response: Inaction, discouraged famine relief Thought to be too expensive Thought relief would encourage shirking of Indian workers Result: 5 million starved to death http://www.sott.net/signs/images/indian_family.jpg Risk and opportunity: Management lesson from The McCumber Cube: Risk and opportunity: Management lesson from The McCumber Cube The McCumber model helps one to remember to consider all important design aspects without becoming too focused on any one in particular Policy makers take note! People Most Vulnerable to Famine: People Most Vulnerable to Famine Poor rural people: crop failure Small scale farmers Unemployed tenant farmers Landless agriculture workers Conquered nations Pastoralists Drought Low animal prices http://www.sonic.net/~evolve/wp/human_ecology/sudan_famine_7.jpg EARTHQUAKE: Sanction!: EARTHQUAKE: Sanction! An Earthquake is a sudden release of energy accumulated in deformed rocks causing the ground to tremble or shake. Bangladesh Famine, 1974: Bangladesh Famine, 1974 Over 100,000 died Blamed on floods that destroyed crops Actually never a shortage of food Wealthy farmers hoarded food Poor could not afford to buy food http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/migrated/MultimediaFiles/Live/Image/4422.jpg PICTURES SHOWING HAZARDS: PICTURES SHOWING HAZARDS Sub-Saharan Africa (Sahel): Sub-Saharan Africa (Sahel) Recurring Famines 70s, 80s,90s 00s Blamed on Drought But grow enough to feed everybody Exports continued: cotton, vegetables, peanuts Poor, indebted farmers suffer most Desertification a problem Aid supported export crops http://filipspagnoli.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/famine.jpg Rwanda: Do we want it more?: Rwanda: Do we want it more? 1990s: Genocide, civil war, starving refugees Country dependent on coffee exports: prices dropped plunging economy into crisis World Bank, IMF “structural adjustment” doubled number in poverty Rebels attacked most fertile region Ethnic tensions left over from colonialism exploded 500,000 killed: Genocide Crop production dropped economy collapsed Rwanda refugees http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0fel9bt89f5XY/610x.jpg Sudan: When will this end?: Sudan: When will this end? Rebellion in Darfur starting 2003 Region size of France Farming villages bombed by Sudan government To fight rebels Ethnic cleansing by Pro-Arab militia (Janjaweed) kill, rape, burn Genocide? 2.5 million refugees 200,000- 450,000 dead Many from starvation http://www.unitedhumanrights.org/sudan_genocide_genocide_in_sudan.php Refugees in Darfur, Sudan Conflicts and Poverty: Conflicts and Poverty http://www.cybertext.net.au/student07_inet__may/otherConferences/Poverty_conflict_map.jpg Famines are a Social Disaster: Famines are a Social Disaster Vulnerability of the poor Disasters result in poor losing land Opportunity for the rich? Claim to food may be lost If too poor to buy food Right to food? Vulnerability of agriculture to nature Poor conservation due to economic pressure Hunger used as a weapon Ethiopia http://www.faqs.org/nutrition/images/nwaz_02_img0201.jpg Lesson from Ukraine Famine poor risk management: negligence: Lesson from Ukraine Famine poor risk management: negligence Policy: Soviet Union established collective farms in 1930s Policy: Quotas set for farm production Policy: Food seized from farms to make quotas 6-8 million Ukrainians died 1932-1933 http://www.gnosticliberationfront.com/Image14.jpg Great Leap Forward Famine 1959-1961: Propaganda: Great Leap Forward Famine 1959-1961: Propaganda Policy & Ideology: China reorganized farms into large communes Huge production predicted Policy: Food exports increased in 1959 Based on predictions Poor weather resulted in low production 30 million people died Propaganda Poster http://www.wellesley.edu/Polisci/wj/ChinaLinks-New/Images-ChinaLinks1-07/glf.jpg Lesson from North Korean Famine: Lesson from North Korean Famine 1990s – 500,000 - 3Million died of starvation N. Korea doesn’t grow enough food for it’s population Food rationed by government Priority to military and party loyalists With collapse of Soviet Union, grain aid reduced in 1990s Industrial base too weak to afford grain imports Military: 1.2 million soldiers ¼ N. Korean budget http://www.nkfreedom.org/fileadmin/Image_Archive/Photo_2girls.jpg PowerPoint Presentation: Typhoon in Philippians in 2009 Rather than Disaster Relief, Risk Management is Needed: Rather than Disaster Relief, Risk Management is Needed Better governance : democracy Early warning rapid response Increase food availability Discourage hoarding Domestic production Distribution to needy Food or cash Stabilization of food prices Liberia refugee children http://www.americanphotojournalist.com/News/145-8.jpg The Conclusion of the whole matter: The Conclusion of the whole matter For households we recommend universal health insurance, and conditional cash transfers. For communities, we recommend public infrastructure and services that can be implemented with the collaboration of local communities. For enterprises, we recommend streamlining regulations and improving public services so that both flexibility and formality in the economy can be advanced. For the financial system, we recommend macro prudential policies to diminish the risk of a systemic financial crisis. For the macroeconomy, we recommend countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies to reduce the impact of shocks coming from inside or outside the economy. And for the international community, we recommend an incremental approach towards global agreement, especially when we have to deal with complex global risks, such as climate change and global warming.

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