Published on October 31, 2007
Singularity Economics: Singularity Economics An Evolutionary Developmental Proposal John Smart April 2004, Los Angeles, CA Institute for Accelerating Change: Institute for Accelerating Change IAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of systems theorists and lay futurists exploring accelerating change. First, we practice "developmental" future studies, that is, we focus primarily on highly probable, convergent, and apparently permanent forces and emerging capacities of our onrushing future. Second, we ask what “evolutionary” choices we have within humanity's apparently continually accelerating technological developmental framework. Intro to Future Studies: Intro to Future Studies Four Types Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art) Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations) Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans) Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for singularity studies It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses Accelerating, increasingly efficient, and increasingly local computation is apparently the fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. Problem: The Prediction Wall: Problem: The Prediction Wall Ten-year business plans (1950's) have been replaced with ten-week (quarterly) plans (2000's). Planning beyond two years in some technology fields can be unwise speculation. There is a growing inability of human minds to imagine our future, a time that must apparently include greater-than-human technological sophistication and intelligence. Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the Future," 2001, notes that even our science fiction writers have mostly abandoned any attempt to portray the hyperaccelerated technological world of fifty years hence. What Can We Predict?: What Can We Predict? Let’s Focus on Four Things. First: 1. The History of Continuous Acceleration 2. The Theory of Evolutionary Development 3. Examples of Hierarchical Emergence We’ll use these three subjects to make some broad comments on: 4. The Future of Automation and Economics Your feedback is most welcome. A Brief History of Acceleration: A Brief History of Acceleration Something Curious Is Going On: Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…) A U-Shaped Curve?: A U-Shaped Curve? Big Bang Singularity 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth 100,000 yrs: Matter 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds Developmental Singularity Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Slowing Phase: Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Slowing Phase Life to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase: Life to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Technology, Economics, and Politics: Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development) 80% Equilibrium (Evolution) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Technology, Economics, and Politics Saturation: A Biological Lesson: Saturation: A Biological Lesson How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing Curious Facts: 1. Universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be greatly more MEST resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy: Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this: Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses. Brief History of Accelerating Change: Brief History of Accelerating Change Observation 1: Tech Interval Time Compression: Observation 1: Tech Interval Time Compression Obs. 2: Continuous Tech Innovation (Even 400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague): Obs. 2: Continuous Tech Innovation (Even 400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Technological or Sociotechnological Innovation Date (A.D.), Location Alchemy (pre-science) develops a wide following 410, Europe Constantinople University 425, Turkey Powers and Roots (Arybhata) 476, India Heavy plow; horse shoes; practical horse harness 500, Europe Wooden coffins (Alemanni) 507, Germany Draw looms (silk weaving) 550, Egypt Decimal reckoning 595, India Canterbury Monastery/University 598, England Book printing 600, China Suan-Ching (Science Encyclopedia) 619, China Originum Etymologiarum Liibri XX (Sci. Encyc.) 622, Spain First surgical procedures 650, India Water wheel for milling (Medieval energy source) 700, Europe Stirrup arrives in Europe from China 710, Europe Early Chemistry (Abu Masa Dshaffar) 720, Mid-East Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague): Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Medicine, Astronomy, Math, Optics, Chemistry 750, Arab Spain Hanlin Academy 750, China Pictorial Book Printing 765, Japan Iron and smithing become common; felling ax 770, Europe Chemistry (Jabir) 782, Mid-East Mayan Acropoli (peak) 800, Mexico Algebra (Muhammed al Chwarazmi) 810, Persia Ptolemaic Astronomy; Soap becomes common 828, Europe Rotary grindstone to sharpen iron 834, Europe Paper money 845, China Salerno University 850, Italy Iron becomes common; Trebuchets 850, Europe Astrolabe (navigation) 850, Mid-East Angkor Thom (city) 860, Cambodia New Mathematics and Science (Jahiz, Al-Kindi) 870, Mid-East Viking shipbuilding 900, Europe Paper arrives in Arab world 900, Egypt Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague): Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Salerno Medical School 900, Italy Linens and woolens 942, Flanders First European bridges 963, England Arithmetical notation brought to Europe by Arabs 975, Europe 1,000 volume encyclopedia 978, China First Mayan and Tiuanaco Civilizations 1000, Cent./S.America Horizontal loom 1000, Europe Astrolabe arrives in Europe 1050, Europe Greek medicine arrives in Europe (Constantine) 1070, Europe Water-driven mechanical clock 1090, China Antidotarum (2650 medical prescriptions) 1098, Italy Bologna University 1119, Italy Mariner's compass 1125, Europe Town charters granted (protecting commerce) 1132, France Al-Idrisi's "Geography" 1154, Italy Oxford University 1167, England Vertical sail windmills 1180, Europe Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague): Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Glass mirrors 1180, England Second Mayan Civilization 1190, Cent. America Cambridge University 1200, England Arabic numerals in Europe (Leonardo Fibonacci) 1202, England Tiled roofs 1212, England Cotton manufacture 1225, Spain Coal mining 1233, England Roger Bacon, our first scientist (Opus; Communia) 1250, England Goose quill writing pen 1250, Italy The inquisition begins using instruments of torture 1252, Spain Tradesman guilds engage in street fighting over turf 1267, England Toll roads 1269, England Human dissection 1275, England Wood block printing; spectacles 1290, Italy Standardization of distance measures (yard, acre) 1305, England Use of gunpowder for firearms (Berthold Schwarz) 1313, Germany Sawmill; wheelbarrow; cannon (large and hand) 1325, Europe Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague): Continuous Tech Innovation (400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague) Pisa and Grenoble Universities; Queens College 1330, Europe First scientific weather forecasts (William Merlee) 1337, England Mechanical clock reaches Europe 1354, France Blast furnaces; cast iron explodes across Europe 1360, Europe Steel crossbow first used in war 1370, Europe Vienna, Hiedelberg, and Cologne Universities 1380, Europe Incorporation of the Fishmonger's Company 1384, England Johann Gutenberg, inventor of mass printing, born 1396, Germany Lesson: Tech innovation appears to be a developmental process, independent of Wars, Enlightenments, Reformations, Inquisitions, Crusades, Subjugations, and other aspects of our cyclic evolutionary ideological, cultural, and economic history. Tech advances are something we consistently choose, even unconsciously, regardless of who is in power, because they have strong "non-zero sum" effects on human aspirations. Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration: Moore's Law - Miniaturization Processing, Storage, ... Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months Metcalf's Law - Interconnection Value of a network increases as the square of the number connections Gilder's Law - Quantization Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months Negroponte's Law - Digitization Superiority of "bits over atoms" Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas are ultimate raw material Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration Transistor Doublings (2 years): Transistor Doublings (2 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net Processor Performance (1.8 years): Processor Performance (1.8 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years): DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net Many Unexpected Physical Processes are Moore’s-Related: Dickerson’s Law: Many Unexpected Physical Processes are Moore’s-Related: Dickerson’s Law Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960) This predicts 14,201 crystal structure entries online in the international Protein Data Bank (PDB) by 2002. The actual number was 14,250, just 49 more. The curve has been surprisingly consistent. Slide26: Hans Moravec, Robot, 1999 The Technological Singularity: The Technological Singularity Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system. Henry Adams, 1909: The First Singularity Theorist: Henry Adams, 1909: The First Singularity Theorist The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Too early to tell, at present. Population History: Population History Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc. What Stopped it?: What Stopped it? The Theory of Evolutionary Development: The Theory of Evolutionary Development Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints”: Evolution vs. Development “The Twin’s Thumbprints” Consider two identical twins: Thumbprints Brain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns. Evolution and Development:The Two Basic Systems Processes: Evolution and Development: The Two Basic Systems Processes Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate. Cambrian Explosion: Cambrian Explosion Complex Environmental Interaction Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.” Invertebrates Vertebrates Bacteria Insects Multicellularity Discovered Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”: Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Complex Environmental Interaction Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Right Hand Left Hand Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization New Computat’l Phase Space Opening Marbles, Landscape, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, Development): Marbles, Landscape, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of the basin. Simplicity and Complexity: Simplicity and Complexity Universal Evolutionary Development is: Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between Simple Math Of the Very Small (Big Bang, Quantum Mechanics, Chemistry) Simple Math Of the Very Large (Classical Mechanics, General Relativity) Complex Math Of the In Between (Chaos, Life, Humans, Coming Technologies) Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake?, 2001 The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigner’s ladder): Complex systems are evolutionary. Simple systems are developmental. The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding. The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is mathematically complex (Gödelian incomplete), and trillions of times evolutionarily unique. The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large, & paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small) is uniform, and simple to understand. The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigner’s ladder) Examples of Hierarchical Emergence: Examples of Hierarchical Emergence Systems Theory: Systems Theory Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." — Albert Einstein Cosmic Embryogenesis(in Three Easy Steps): Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 Pierre Tielhard de Chardin (1881-1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist Systems For Universal Computation (8)(a.k.a. “Substrates”): Systems For Universal Computation (8) (a.k.a. “Substrates”) Substrate I.P. System 1. Galactic-Subatomic "Galactic" 2. Stellar-Elemental "Atomic" 3. Planetary-Molecular "Chemetic" 4. Biomass-Unicellular "Genetic" 5. Neurologic-Multicellular "Dendritic" 6. Cultural-Linguistic "Memetic" 7. Computational-Technologic "Algorithmic“ 8. AI-Hyperconscious "Technetic" Note: Each is Vastly More MEST-Compressed and IP-Enabled Five Complex Adaptive Systems: Five Complex Adaptive Systems Individual (Vitality,Creativity,Spirituality) Family/Relationship (Culture,Psychology) Tribal/Nation (Politics,Economics) Species/Planet (Peace,Globalization,Environment) Universal (Science,Technology,Computation) Question: Which is unlike the others? This last system is growing apparently asymptotically in local capacities These five systems may exist on all Earth-like planets (e.g., astrobiologically developed). Three Systems of Social Change: Three Systems of Social Change Sociotechnological (dominant since 1950!) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed) Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. The Developmental Spiral: The Developmental Spiral Hominid Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Sapiens 100,000 yrs Tribal Age 25,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060 Gently Tightening Subcycles : Gently Tightening Subcycles Period Subcycle Some Features Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?: Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 LUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing. 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric. Tech Singularity – Overview: Tech Singularity – Overview Circa 2060: Technological Singularity The AI (shortly thereafter, AI's) claim self-awareness. True, 3rd-gen uploading begins. World population hits its maximum (2030-2050), declines increasingly rapidly thereafter. 2040 1970 Sources: Warren Sanderson, Nature, 412, 2001 Tom McKendree, Hughes Aircraft, 1994 “The Envelope Curve is Local Universal Computation” Any Fixed-Complexity Replicating Substrate (e.g. Homo Sapiens) Types of Singularities: Types of Singularities Mathematical Physical Cosmological (our best model?) Computational Developmental (our best model?) Technological "singular" human-competitive A.I. Emergence discontinuous (physical-dynamical singularity) unknowable (computational-cognitive singularity) convergent (developmental singularity) hierarchical (developmental singularity) instantaneous (developmental singularity) reproductive (developmental singularity) Sagan, Chaisson, Moore, Vinge: Sagan, Chaisson, Moore, Vinge Chaisson’s Phi, a Free Energy Rate Density Substrate (ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 (unexpected?) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines (10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 Growth and Limits of Computation: Growth and Limits of Computation Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling. 300 Doublings to a “Past-Closed” Omega Comp. Understanding most Developmental History and some of Evol. History. (e.g., CA’s, Gen. Engrg.) Computing right down to Planck Scale? No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer) Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes Sources: Seth Lloyd, “Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002 Bennett & Landauer, “Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985 Binding Energy (of Computational Structure): Binding Energy (of Computational Structure) Systems theorist Ervin Laszlo (Evolution, 1987) notes each hierarchically emergent universal substrate greatly decreases the binding energy of its diverse (evolutionary) physical configurations. Examples: matter (earliest emerging physical substrate), e.g., protons and neutrons within the nucleus of atoms, is bound by nuclear exchange ("strong") forces atoms are joined by much weaker ionic or covalent (electromagnetic) bonds cells within multicellular organisms are connected "another dimension down the scale of bonding energy." memes encoded in a vesicular-morphologic language of synaptic weights and dendritic arborization involve vastly less binding energy still technemes, in communicable electronically-encoded algorithms and logic circuitry involve orders of magnitude less binding energy yet again. gravitons. Note gravity is the 2nd weakest of the five known forces (only dark energy is weaker). Yet in Smolin’s model gravity guides us to black holes as a developmental attractor for substrate computation in this universe. In other words, the MEST efficiency, or energy cost of computation, of learning (encoding, remembering, reorganizing) rapidly tends to zero in emergent substrates as we approach the developmental singularity. Understanding MEST Compression: Understanding MEST Compression A Developmental Universe?: A Developmental Universe? Developmental Lesson: A Possible Destiny of Species MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity Inner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims) Black Hole Equivalent Transcension? Just what exactly are black holes?: Just what exactly are black holes? Lee Smolin’s Answer:“Cosmological Natural Selection”: Lee Smolin’s Answer: “Cosmological Natural Selection” At least 8 of the 20 “standard model” universal parameters appear tuned for: – black hole production – multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life) The Life of the Cosmos, 1996 Developmental Singularity – Overview: Post 2060 Full AI Sim of Human Thoughtspace (ref.: Our multimillion dollar sims of bacterial metabolome) Historical Computational Closure (astronomy, geography, brains, etc.). Maps rapidly close the very large, and very small, leaving only the very complex… "Inner space," not outer space, now appears to be our constrained developmental destiny, incredibly soon in cosmologic time. " Developmental Singularity – Overview For astronomical closure, see Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981 Physics of a “MESTI” Universe: Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search) A Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = Negentropy Universal Energy Potential is Conserved. The Future of Automation and Economics: The Future of Automation and Economics World Economic Performance: World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. This curve looks very smooth on a macroscopic scale. The “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850. Finite-Time Singularities: Finite-Time Singularities PDE’s of General Relativity in a mass field, leading to black hole formation PDE’s of Euler equations of inviscid fluids in relation to turbulence Rotating coin spinning down to a table (Euler’s disk) Earthquakes (ex: slip-velocity Ruina-Dieterich friction law and accelerating creep) Micro-organism chemotaxis models (aggregation to form fruiting bodies) Stock market crashes (as catastrophic events). Source: Didier Sornette, Critical Phenomena in the Natural Sciences, 1999 Macrohistorical Finite-Time Singularities: Macrohistorical Finite-Time Singularities Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ±30 years Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ±10 years Understanding Automation : Understanding Automation Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service/Information Economy. 1995-02, America lost 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million such jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, our country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist) “Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line.” (Tsvi Bisk) "The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003 "Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003 Lesson: The Social Value of Most Jobs Is Delivered In Mechanical Automation: Lesson: The Social Value of Most Jobs Is Delivered In Mechanical Automation 90% of today's typical First World jobs are paid for by automation. Developing countries are next in line (soon or late). The human contribution (10%) of a First World job is Creativity+Education Continual education and grants (“tax the machines”) as final destination for biological human beings. Termite Mound Example: Automated Oil Refinery: Example: Automated Oil Refinery Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators. Problem: Social Disruption Due to Technological Revolutions: Problem: Social Disruption Due to Technological Revolutions Manufacturing Globalization Revolution (1980’s) Info Tech (IT) Globalization Revolution (2000’s) LUI Automation Revolution (2020’s) Some jobs that went to Mexican maquiladoras in the 1980’s are going to China in the 2000’s. Many of these jobs will go to machines in the 2020’s. What to do? Automation Development Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts: Automation Development Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today) Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today) Automating of service is pushing people into information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry) Automating of IT will push people into symbiont groups (“personality capture”) Automating of symbiont groups will push people beyond biology (“transhumanity”) IT’s Exponential Economics: IT’s Exponential Economics Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net Automation and the Service Society: Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1 Automation and the Service Society The Future of Work: A Tax- and Foundation- Supported Age of Global Philanthropy: The Future of Work: A Tax- and Foundation- Supported Age of Global Philanthropy A 2050 Scenario: As technology-driven corporate GDP grows exponentially at 4% or more each year, historical analysis argues governments will continue to do by far the most “social contract giving,” (100:10:1 govt. to individual to corporate giving ratio). That would mean that the service work of many, perhaps even most of our 200 million+ employees (total 2050 pop. of 300-400 million) circa 2050 will be supported by ‘grant proposals’ to the government to do various public works, in the same the way our country’s 1.5 million nonprofits presently are supported by government and foundations grants today. Secondarily, individuals and their foundations, with progressively increased social leverage due to tech-aided wealth increase, will do more giving each year. Look to individuals, with their uniquely creative and transformative giving styles (through foundations, legacy, and discretionary giving) to usher in an Age of Global Philanthropy in the post-LUI era after 2020. Finally, while corporations will bring lots of new technology-enabled wealth into the world, governments and individuals will continue to drive philanthropy See: Millionaires and the Millennium, Havens and Schervish, 1999 U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor: U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor The Network of the 1880’s Built by hard-working immigrants IT Globalization Revolution (2000-20):Promontory Point Revisited: IT Globalization Revolution (2000-20): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The coming intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Consider what this means for the goals of modern business and education: Teaching skills for global management, partnerships, and collaboration. Technological Globalization: Winners: Technological Globalization: Winners Globalization is less a choice than a statistical inevitability, once we have accelerating, globe-spanning technologies (communication, databases, travel) on a planet of finite surface area (“sphericity”). There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as: Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets, Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies (The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum) Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism) (Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen) Global Corporations (large and small) (New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman) Technological Globalization: Losers: Some of the longer term losers: Non-Network Memes and Traditions like Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism (Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson) Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven (mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (“Third World War”) (The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin) (Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin) Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions Sanctioning Network-Breaking Violence (“Fourth World War”) (The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington) Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems (excepting critical systems, like Security) (The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel) Technological Globalization: Losers Technological Globalization: Uncertains: Technological Globalization: Uncertains Most elements of modern society, of course, are evolutionary, meaning they remain ‘indeterminate’ actors which may or may not become winners. Their fate depends critically on the paths we choose. Some key examples: Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity, Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion, Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance (The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks) The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to Uganda) (A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge) The Developing World (The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto) Socioeconomic Globalization: Two Dialogs of Change: Socioeconomic Globalization: Two Dialogs of Change Socioeconomic discussions concern both development (likely or inevitable futures) and evolution (paths we choose toward the attractor). Two valuable dialogs: Fukuyama: Global democratic capitalism is an “End of History,” probably the last stable developmental attractor for the structure of our human economies. Stiglitz: This may be true, but the evolutionary path taken can be greatly improved. Cultural sensitivity, and more IMF/WB/WTO democracy and transparency are needed. Expect conflict, including some rioting in the streets, as stakes are high for all. These are prime issues of choice. 5 Info- and Socio-technological Levers for Third World in the 21st Century: 5 Info- and Socio-technological Levers for Third World in the 21st Century 1. Infotech (Education, Digital Ecologies) 2. Globalization (Education, Bilingualism, Unique Competitive Advantages) 3. Transparency (Education, Accountability, Anti-Corruption) 4. Liberalization (Education, Legal and Democratic Reform) 5. Compassion (Education, Rich-Poor Divides, NGOs, Workfare, Philanthropy) Infotech: Digital Ecologies: Infotech: Digital Ecologies Radio Low Power TV Cell Phones Newspapers (Program Guides) Internet PDAs Game PCs Cordless Phones Desktop PCs Key Questions: Public access? Subsidized? Education? Strong network effects. Intrinsically socially stabilizing. “There is no digital divide.” (Cato Institute) Email Avatars Groupware Social Software IM/SMS A Simulation Society (“Hyperreality”)A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”): A Simulation Society (“Hyperreality”) A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”) Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin, The Transparent Society, 1998 “The Desert of the Real” (Reality vs. Hyperreality) Jean Baudrillard, Simulacra and Simulations, 1981 David Gelernter, Mirror Worlds, 1991 Key Shifts in the Venture Capital Market: Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic. First long haul, then metro, then local access Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net. IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net Offerings are moving from products to services. "Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, knowledge Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico. First Genomics, then Proteomics, then nanotechnologies Key Shifts in the Venture Capital Market Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden, 2004 (More agent-based, more MEST-compressed, more network-like, more information-based, more hardware oriented.) MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It!: Q1: Which apps have been discussed? Border monitoring City monitoring Urban broadband Early warning radar Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech? Inventor: Hokan Colting 21stCenturyAirships.com 180 feet diameter. Autonomous. 60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles) Permanent geosynch. location. Onboard solar and navigation. A “quarter sized” receiver dish. MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It! Q2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world? Latency, bandwidth, launch costs. MEST compression always wins. Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World: Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Category-Killer Stores (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, eBay) Local community/Third Space (Starbucks) “NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development: “NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications) It is easy to misspend lots of R&D money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless It is even easier to misspend disproportionate amounts of R&D budgets on a less centrally accelerating field. Current examples: Nanotech and biotech Assumption: Any nation today can far more quickly get substantially better infotech than biotech or nanotech. Biotech is a Saturated Substrate: Biotech is a Saturated Substrate 21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t accelerate biological complexity! Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions “Most complex structure in the known universe” Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans” No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so. Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead. Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.” Computational Limits on 21st Century Biotechnology: Computational Limits on 21st Century Biotechnology Biology is Bottom-Up Designed, Massively Multifactorial, and Nonlinearly Interdependent. “Genetically engrd humans” (2000) are “atomic vacuum cleaners” (1950) Increased Differentiation = Decreased Intervention Clipping growth genes into frogs vs. mice vs. pigs. Developmental damage! “Negative pleiotropy increases with complexity.” Our Genetic “Legacy Code” Appears Highly Conserved The entire human race is more genetically similar than a single baboon troop. A massive extinction event circa 70,000 years ago is one proposal for this (ref). Much more likely is simple developmental path dependency. Mental Symbolic Manipulation is Deep Differentiation Wernicke’s and Broca’s are apparent equivalent of metazoan body plans! (see Terrence Deacon, The Symbolic Species, on co-evolution of lang. & brain) Even with preadaptation (Gould) & requisite variety (Ashby), drift = dysfunction. Features of Evol. and Expansion of Modern Humans, Inferred from Genomewide Microsatellite Markers," Zhivotovsky, 2003, AJHG Nanotech and Cognotech are bothAI-Dependent Systems: Nanotech and Cognotech are both AI-Dependent Systems Two Key Assumptions: Nanotech Will Require Bottom-Up, Biologically-Inspired AI to Realize the full “Drexlerian” molecular assember vision (Erik Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1986). Cognotech (e.g., human consciousness) will only expand past its current saturation when we have nanotech and fine-grained AI personality capture interfaces Infotech and Sociotech: The Central Drivers: Infotech and Sociotech: The Central Drivers Infotech (AI): Process Automation and Simulation Biologically-Inspired Computing Sociotech (IA): Digital Ecologies and Immunity The Linguistic User Interface Linguistic User Interface: Linguistic User Interface Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech Watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020… De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth: De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth "No one can deny that a world network of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." “Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition” AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”): AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”) • AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) • Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?) • Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture Robo sapiens: Robo sapiens AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 “Huey and Louey” Aibo Soccer What Computers Do that Human’s Don’t: What Computers Do that Human’s Don’t Humans Need Secrecy, Lies, Violence. They Solve Computational Problems for Us. (Harold Bloom, The Lucifer Principle). But Computers? Open-Ended Learning Capacity: Hyperconsciousness Greater Degrees of Freedom, "Perfect" Retention and Forgetting Communication of Knowledge Structures, Not Just Language Maintain Multiple Perspectives Until Data Come In. No Variation Cost. Computational Ethics: NZS Games, Global Optima Information Flow Hypothesis of Self (Boundary, Dennett) Information Flow Hypothesis of Conflict (Rummel, etc.) Tolerance of Human Beings vs. Human Brains (Minsky, Society of Mind) Conclusion: AI’s Will Be Far More Interdependent, Ethical, Empathic to Others, & Stable Than Humans Could Ever Be, By Apparent Design Solution: Personality Capture and Transhumanity: In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Solution: Personality Capture and Transhumanity One Transhumanist’s Creed: One Transhumanist’s Creed “Teilhard insists that only by cultivating our moral sense of obligation to life can we overcome our present fear and anxiety for the human future. For him the fundamental law of morality is thus to liberate that conscious energy that seeks further to unify the world. This is the energy of human love, an impulse toward unity, an impulse of mind and heart that manifests itself particularly in the relish a person has for creative tasks undertaken from a sense of duty.” Ref: Prof. Joseph MacDonnell, Fairfield University Closing Questions: Closing Questions Six Questions 1. What would you monitor/scan/measure today to see if we are on an S-Curve or J-Curve of global computational change? 2. What methods would you use to distinguish evolutionary randomness from developmental trajectory 3. Is the tech singularity coming? What? When? Where? How? Why? 4. What are our control options for accelerating and ever more autonomous computation? 5. What are better and worse paths of technology development? 6. How do we promote unity, balance, and accelerating compassion in the transition? Consider the First and Third World GDP Curves, 1900 to 2000. A Proposition: The third world curve is largely ours to choose. Action Items: Action Items 1. Visit SingularityWatch.com 2. Sign up for our Accelerating Times Newsletter 3. Join Institute for Accelerating Change 4. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2004) Friday-Sunday, Sept. 10-12 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA. See Accelerating.org 5. Read Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999. 6. Feedback to [email protected] Thank You!