Published on October 7, 2007
China’s Peaceful Rise : China’s Peaceful Rise Sun Zhe Professor & Deputy Director Center for American Studies Fudan University Zhe Sun86-21-6564-2590; 1350-168-2753[email protected]; [email protected] : Zhe Sun 86-21-6564-2590; 1350-168-2753 [email protected]; [email protected] 1. Goals: China’s Image2. Means: Rise by Peace?3. Major Obstacles: Domestic/Int’l/Taiwan? : 1. Goals: China’s Image 2. Means: Rise by Peace? 3. Major Obstacles: Domestic/Int’l/Taiwan? Background: Debate on China’s Peaceful Rise Sea change in China vs. 350 Million people make less than 1 dollar/day Socialism or Capitalism: Rise of the party or people? Blackhole or Good market? World factory or Intern’l Garbage Place?: Sea change in China vs. 350 Million people make less than 1 dollar/day Socialism or Capitalism: Rise of the party or people? Blackhole or Good market? World factory or Intern’l Garbage Place? Goals: China’s Domestic and International Images 1. No such a thing in world history; 2. A friendly elephant vs. wolves3. The Case of the US China’s own Monroe Doctrine? : 1. No such a thing in world history; 2. A friendly elephant vs. wolves 3. The Case of the US China’s own Monroe Doctrine? Means: by Peace? 1. Domestic problems: 400 m people over 65 yr old in 2030; 100 m immigrants 15 m city dwellers in poverty 24 provinces controlled electricity last year : 1. Domestic problems: 400 m people over 65 yr old in 2030; 100 m immigrants 15 m city dwellers in poverty 24 provinces controlled electricity last year Major Obstacles/threat Peace and Stability at home GDP brings about political maturity? Case: 1820: China’s GDP-world no.1 1890: China’s GDP : 5.8 times/Japan Result? : Peace and Stability at home GDP brings about political maturity? Case: 1820: China’s GDP-world no.1 1890: China’s GDP : 5.8 times/Japan Result? Domestic Threat Slide8: International Threat:the US? US: Moment of super lonely power? 4% of world population, GDP: 15 trillion 480 billion defense budget in 2003 1 trillion value of output in cultural industry EU: 25 states, 450 m population, 10 trillion Japan: 4.9 trillion; China: 1.3 trillion? No unification, no peaceful rise rise for unification rise by unification? : No unification, no peaceful rise rise for unification rise by unification? Major obstacles: Taiwan Backgrounds : on Sino-American Relations：1950-2004: Backgrounds : on Sino-American Relations：1950-2004 2.Three Levels of Analysis of the US-China Relations: 2.Three Levels of Analysis of the US-China Relations 1.five basic issues to be discussed in the US-China Relations 2. linking all these issues to domestic politics in both countries 3. the prospect of this bilateral relations in the next 5-10 years. 2.1 Five Basic Issues: 2.1 Five Basic Issues Issue Number One: U.S.-China Cooperation in the War on Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction Examples: Beijing has offered $150 million in aid to Afghanistan 6 party talks with the United States. Awful middle man. Slide17: Issue Number Two: Economic conflicts Comparative advantages: Trade surplus――130 billion last year WTO duties— RMB—currency issues? Slide18: Issue Number Three: A New Washington – Taipei Relationship? Taiwan has been a central issue in U.S.-China relations since 1949 Symbolic role model of democracy United States Weapon Sales to Taiwan, 1990–2001 1990--Total: $153 million 1992 (150) F-16 fighters Total: $7,706 million ; 1997: · Pilot training and logistics support for F-16 fighters · Spare parts for various aircraft Total: $1,247 million 2000 : Modernization of air defense radar · 162 air defense missiles (39) F-16 navigation and targeting pods (200) advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles; · (71) Harpoon missiles · Improved mobile subscriber equipment communication system: Total: $1,866 million Slide19: Issue Number Four: China’s Domestic Political Scene a fragile banking system, slowly reforms decaying state-owned industry, and opens itself wider to foreign economic competition, the potential for increasingly frequent, large, and violent popular protests is real. Slide20: Issue Number Five:perceptions and misperceptions------human rights issue Issue of human rights— White paper Counter attacking the united States: 2.2 American domestic politics and Bush’s approach to China : 2.2 American domestic politics and Bush’s approach to China The Bush’s Approach to China: Strategically Suspicious, Economically Hopeful , practically Uncertain Three approaches and three teams Blue Teams --China Threat;--–contain China, change China. The red/purple team-- The moving tendency is that China is integrating into the international community -- Living with China The black team-- China collapse――Gordon Chang – bad things in China. 2.3 China’s America Policy: Hope and Hedges : 2.3 China’s America Policy: Hope and Hedges On the one hand,Chinese Desire for Productive Relations : 1.Deng Xiaoping : “China should keep a low profile and never take the lead” 2. The bottom line of Chinese policy is the desire to focus on the country’s internal problems. l Widening Income Gap: 80.6 percent of the people are dissatisfied with the widening gap between rich and poor. Slide23: On the other hand,there are also some structural constraints on China’s pursuit of better relations. Example:the united States in Chinese political imagination:To many in the Chinese public, the United States is frequently perceived to be operating at cross-purposes to China’s interests. A.According to our current poll: 1. 87.1 percent: the United States is “least friendly” to China 2.57.2 percent: the United States is the country to which they felt most negative 3.85.4 percent: the United States’engagement in the Iraq War was “out of its own interests” Slide24: B.In a recent study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences conducted before September 11, the largest group of Chinese respondents (nearly two-fifths) selected America as “the biggest threat to China’s security.” In both report A and B , those Chinese who felt that the United States is acting negatively toward China generally cited the following as evidence: l U.S. efforts to block Beijing’s hosting of the 2000 Olympic Games; l the Yinhe incident in 1993, in which the U.S. Navy demanded to search a Chinese ship that was on the high seas because it was suspected of carrying chemical weapon l precursors to Iran (which were not found once the ship was searched); l 224 protracted negotiations (about 16 years) over China’s General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/WTO bid; U.S. State Department reports critical of Beijing’s human rights record; and so on. 2.4 Future perspectives? : 2.4 Future perspectives? 1.The rise of Chinese power and American response to it 2.China’s changing role in the international system; 3.China’s domestic evolution, particularly the need for it to shed undemocratic aspects of its system of government. Synchronized swim? Olympic game?