Published on December 28, 2007
Regional Strategic AppraisalSouth East Asia: Regional Strategic Appraisal South East Asia LTC Dan Christian LTC(P) Marvin Benton Geography: Geography Demographics Over 3 billion people China, Japan, India are top economic contributors in the world. Significant poor economic classes. Largest consumers of oil in the world, yet lack internal natural resources. Religious melting pot Taoism, Buddhism, Muslim to Hindu, Shinto , Christianity. Regional History – Development: Regional History – Development 15th Century Portuguese dominated trade in South East Asia (SEA). 16th / 17th Century Dutch assume control from Portuguese. Establish East India Company 18th Century British Utilized strong navy to penetrate SEA. Opened trade and created Political dominance in the region. French established a colony in Indo-China 19th Century – Russia Political influence in the region History of U.S. Involvement in the Region: History of U.S. Involvement in the Region The United States assumed a strong foothold in the Philippines Islands in 1944 as a result of military efforts in the Asia region. After WWII the U.S. practiced a policy of containment and monitored regional issues. After the cold war, the United States began to engage regional major powers. Containment of Communism during the Cold -war era. The U.S. has urged the Chinese to revalue its currency to help reduce the huge trade imbalance that is now decidedly in China’s favor. More openness on behalf of the United States with regional powers in recent decades. Major Powers in South East Asia: Major Powers in South East Asia China, India, and Japan are the major powers in SEA. China An emerging global power economically/militarily/politically. Second largest economy in the world after the United States Third largest trading partner to the U.S. Exercises greater influence in East Asia than the United States Major Powers in South East Asia: Major Powers in South East Asia Japan Recognized as a global power but in economic terms only Third largest economy in the world after the United States and China. Attempting to take a more offensive posture an foreign policy no longer closely connected to U.S. Major Powers in South East Asia: Major Powers in South East Asia India India is a growing economic powerhouse that may soon rival China. Aligning to the U.S. through instruments such as Next Steps in the Strategic Partnership (NSSP) Opportunist country to benefit natural resource deficiencies. Sources of Conflict: Sources of Conflict China Conflict with Japan over Taiwan. U.S. military and diplomatic support of Taiwan. North Korea Outward expression of “Go at it alone” mentality. Inflection point is denuclearization Sources of Conflict: Sources of Conflict Pakistan Territorial conflict with India over Kashmir region. Lack of handling of terrorist activities along Pakistan border. India View China as a major rival to constrain India militarily and prevent India’s rise as an emerging power. China does not support India’s admission to the UNSC. Pursuit of energy agreements with countries that conflict with U.S. policies. U.S. Regional Interests: U.S. Regional Interests Vital Regional stability and cooperative relationship among the regions major powers that garner support on energy security, trans-sovereign and defense issues. That South Korea and Japan survive as free and independent states and resolve important global and regional differences. Support a peaceful accord in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula. Region free of or controlling international terrorism. U.S. Regional Interests: Important A region free of internal conflict between China and Japan. That the East Asian countries, including China, continue on the path toward democracy. China’s rebuttal to the U.S. is that we are building a socialist society with Chinese characteristics and we will institute democratic reforms based our time-frame and not at the urgings of the western governments. A region of democratic nations characterized by a respect for human rights, the rule of law and that addresses domestic and international tensions peacefully and environmentally sustainable economic development with transparent government and business operations. U.S. Regional Interests U.S. Regional Interests - Continued: U.S. Regional Interests - Continued Important Regional economic independence supporting the free flow of economic instruments that promote free markets and economic growth in support of a global interdependent economy. That a peaceful solution is reached to secondary territorial disputes such as those in the South China Sea or Senkaku Islands. Security, stability, and cooperation among regional powers on energy, trans-sovereign issues. U.S. Regional Interests: U.S. Regional Interests Peripheral Asia-Pacific region that provides for humanitarian/basic human needs and works on poverty reduction. External Factors: External Factors External China and India ability to find energy resources to fuel their economies and support their future development. Pakistan has done little to aggressively reduce terrorist activities within its borders until demanded to do so by the United States. Cross pollination of terrorist activities or cells within the Asia region. Internal Factors: Internal Factors Internal Security and preservation of oil based energy. Religious and Cultural values. Mutual distrust between China and the U.S. Policy Recommendation: Policy Recommendation The U.S. wants peace and stability to remain in East Asia. The U.S. wants to sustain economic progress in China, India and Japan while avoiding conflict over global energy resources with the goal of minimizing environmental pollution. The U.S. will continue to encourage Chinese leaders to initiate democracy and promote human rights with the elimination of religious discrimination. The U.S. will work with the East Asia nations to eliminate the spread of diseases and pandemics. The U.S. wants to continue to work with East Asia nations to stop WMD proliferation, international terrorism and transnational criminal organizations. Objectives (Ends): Objectives (Ends) Key U.S. Objectives The U.S. seeks the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China. The U.S. wants China to guarantee the right to assembly, the right to petition, free speech to its citizens and initiate free elections of its local and national government leaders. The U.S. will form a regional/international consortium with East Asian nations to stop the flow of diseases. The U.S seeks the nuclear disarmament of North Korea and the ability of Iran to obtain nuclear arms capability. The U.S. wants to form an international taskforce with East Asia nations to combat Al Qaeda cells within East Asia and to apprehend those who engage in transnational criminal activities. Strategic Concepts (Ways): Strategic Concepts (Ways) U.S. Concepts/ Ways Political Develop consensus and coalitions to bring stability in the region and arbitrate differences to overcome territorial concerns (Taiwan), disarm North Korea nuclear capability, gain support to combat terrorist activities in the region, and encourage the spread of individual rights (free speech, free elections). Economic Utilize NGO’s and IGO’s to proliferate stable economic prosperity that will aid in a reduction of disease among poor economic class. Informational Advocate for policy statements and accords to bring stability, democracy, and economic freedom in the region. Military Employ levels of military instruments of power to encourage regional support. Resources (Means): Resources (Means) Manpower Use of DOS Diplomatic Corps and negotiation teams. POTUS will designate a Special Envoy who will be singularly empowered for the DOS to broker a solution on re-integration. Deployment of U.S. naval carrier task-forces near the straits of Malacca and Taiwan. Funding DOD and DOS special annual funding for the above cited activities. Informational U.S. will launch informational campaign to emphasize peace and stability in the region. Launch a medical campaign. Risk Assessment: Risk Assessment We consider our strategy to be adequate, feasible and acceptable. There are of course, some intangibles beyond the control of the United States. Key Risks Negotiations between China and Japan over Taiwan territory. North Korea and disarmament of nuclear capability. Spread of democracy and individual rights. Regional History – Development: Regional History – Development 15th Century Portuguese dominated trade in South East Asia (SEA). 16th / 17th Century Dutch assume control from Portuguese. Establish East India Company. 18th Century British Utilized strong navy to penetrate SEA. Opened trade and created Political dominance in the region. French established a colony in Indo-China 19th Century – Russia Political influence in the region.