Speech Times of Change

Information about Speech Times of Change

Published on January 12, 2008

Author: Hillary

Source: authorstream.com

Content

Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change:  Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Sao Paulo, Brazil n October 18, 2004 Graphing History:  Graphing History Does history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line? Time Change Graphing History:  Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. Time Change Slide4:  Spoken Language Written Language Printing Press Steam Power Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. (Prehistory) Time Change Industrial Revolution:  Industrial Revolution The last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call the Industrial Revolution(s). Time Change Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Industrial Revolutions:  Industrial Revolutions First Revolution (1780–1840) Based in United Kingdom Steam Engine Textile Industry Mechanical Engineering Industrial Revolutions:  Industrial Revolutions Second Revolution (1840–1900) Based in Europe – England, France, Germany Railways Steel Industry Industrial Revolutions:  Industrial Revolutions Third Revolution (1900–1950) Based in United States Electric Engine Heavy Chemicals Automobiles Consumer Durables Industrial Revolutions:  Industrial Revolutions Fourth Revolution (1950–Present) Based in Pacific Basin – California, Japan Synthetics Organic Chemicals (Oil) Computers Graphing History:  Computers Graphing History Each industrial revolution marked a major change— a big step in social, political, and economic history. Time Change Automobiles Railways Steam Engines Graphing History:  Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change Graphing History:  Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change Graphing History:  Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change Graphing History:  Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change Slide15:  Societal Impacts Time Industrial Revolutions The Next Industrial Revolution:  The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Nanotechnology Molecular Manufacturing Slide17:  Societal Impacts Time (Measured in decades) Industrial Revolutions Slide18:  Societal Impacts Time (Measured in YEARS) Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Slide19:  Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Slide20:  Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Slide21:  Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology Slide22:  Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Slide23:  Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology Slide24:  Nanotechnology Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Slide25:  The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. Change is Coming Slide26:  The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler Slide27:  The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale. Nanotechnology is… :  Nanotechnology is… Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation Slide29:  Inside a Nanofactory Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Benefits + Risks :  Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Innovation & Economy:  Innovation & Economy Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation Dangers:  Dangers Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks) Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks) . . . and many more Rapid Progress:  Rapid Progress Nucleic acid / protein engineering NASA study on machine self-replication Solution-phase artificial molecular machines Tool fabrication process for diamond mechanosynthesis Russian roadmap Drexler’s roadmap Nanofactory design The Next Industrial Revolution:  The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Nanotechnology Molecular Manufacturing Nanotechnology Leadership:  Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL NOT require: Heavy industry Scarce natural resources Massive capital Nanotechnology Leadership:  Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL require: Highly educated scientists and engineers Long-term (5-15 years) dedicated effort Nanotechnology Leadership:  Nanotechnology Leadership What it SHOULD require: Openness Cooperation What is Needed Now:  What is Needed Now Awareness of the issues Technical research Policy research Slide44:  CRN Thirty Essential Studies Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA Slide45:  www.Wise-Nano.org A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them. Slide46:  www.CRNano.org Obrigado muito muito! :  Obrigado muito muito! Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Email: [email protected]

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