Published on May 16, 2008
Technical analysis : Technical analysis Of the Financial Markets Slide 4: BEAT THE CROWD! Markets are 80% psychological and 20% logical. Thousands and Thousands of people make their first trade every day, and 90% of them have no idea what they are doing. Technicians employ tricks to take advantage of “Dumb Money”. Slide 7: Trend is the general direction that a security is headed Slide 9: As you can see in Figure , support is the price level through which a stock or market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by the red arrows). Slide 13: The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this is why it is the only value used in line charts. Slide 14: This is one of the most popular types of charts used in technical analysis. As illustrated, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price at which a security traded during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closing price is displayed on the right side of the bar and the opening price is shown on the left side of the bar. A single bar like the one to the left represents one day of trading. Slide 15: Chart type : Candle Stick chart They have been around for hundreds of years. They are often referred to as “Japanese candles” because the Japanese would use them to analyze the price of rice contracts. There are two part in candle. Wick Body. Wick shows High price and Low price of day. Similar to a bar chart, candlestick charts also display the open, close, daily high and daily low. The difference is the use of color to show if the stock went up or down over the day. There two kinds of candle White Candle: It appears when Opening price of stock is lower than Closing price of stock on a particular day. Black Candle: It appears when Closing price of stock is lower than Opening price of stock on a particular day. Slide 16: some of the more popular chart patterns are: Head and Shoulders Cup and Handle Double Tops and Bottoms Triangles Flag and Pennant Wedge Gaps Triple Tops and Bottoms Rounding Bottom Slide 17: Rises to a peak and subsequently declines. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more.The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. Figure 1: Head and shoulders top is shown on the left. Head and shoulders bottom, or inverse head and shoulders, is on the right. Slide 18: A cup and handle chart is a bullish continuation pattern in which the upward trend has paused but will continue in an upward direction once the pattern is confirmed. Slide 19: Double Tops and Bottoms chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal - it is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used. These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend is about to reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. This pattern is often used to signal intermediate and long-term trend reversals. Slide 20: Triangles Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns are considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months. Slide 21: These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by a generally sideways price movement. This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction as the move that started the trend. The patterns are generally thought to last from one to three weeks. Slide 22: The wedge chart pattern can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. It is similar to a symmetrical triangle except that the wedge pattern slants in an upward or downward direction, while the symmetrical triangle generally shows a sideways movement. The other difference is that wedges tend to form over longer periods, usually between three and six months. Slide 23: Triple tops and triple bottoms are another type of reversal chart pattern in chart analysis. These are not as prevalent in charts as head and shoulders and double tops and bottoms, but they act in a similar fashion. These two chart patterns are formed when the price movement tests a level of support or resistance three times and is unable to break through; this signals a reversal of the prior trend. Slide 24: A rounding bottom, also referred to as a saucer bottom, is a long-term reversal pattern that signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend. This pattern is traditionally thought to last anywhere from several months to several years. Slide 25: A gap in a chart is an empty space between a trading period and the following trading period. This occurs when there is a large difference in prices between two sequential trading periods. For example, if the trading range of a stock in one period is between 25 Rupees and 30 Rupees and the next trading period opens at 40 Rupees, there will be a large gap on the chart between these two periods. Gap price movements can be found on bar charts and candlestick charts but will not be found on point and figure or basic line charts. Gaps generally show that something of significance has happened in the security, such as a better-than-expected earnings announcement. There are three main types of gaps, breakaway, runaway (measuring) and exhaustion. A breakaway gap forms at the start of a trend, a runaway gap forms during the middle of a trend and an exhaustion gap forms near the end of a trend. Slide 26: A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time Types of Moving Averages Simple Moving Average (SMA). Linear Weighted Average . Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Slide 27: This is the most common method used to calculate the moving average of prices. It simply takes the sum of all of the past closing prices over the time period and divides the result by the number of prices used in the calculation. For example, in a 10-day moving average, the last 10 closing prices are added together and then divided by 10. As you can see in Figure 1, a trader is able to make the average less responsive to changing prices by increasing the number of periods used in the calculation. Increasing the number of time periods in the calculation is one of the best ways to gauge the strength of the long-term trend and the likelihood that it will reverse. Slide 28: Linear Weighted Average indicator is the least common out of the three and is used to address the problem of the equal weighting. The linear weighted moving average is calculated by taking the sum of all the closing prices over a certain time period and multiplying them by the position of the data point and then dividing by the sum of the number of periods. For example, in a five-day linear weighted average, today's closing price is multiplied by five, yesterday's by four and so on until the first day in the period range is reached. These numbers are then added together and divided by the sum of the multipliers. Slide 29: This moving average calculation uses a smoothing factor to place a higher weight on recent data points and is regarded as much more efficient than the linear weighted average. Having an understanding of the calculation is not generally required for most traders because most charting packages do the calculation for you. The most important thing to remember about the exponential moving average is that it is more responsive to new information relative to the simple moving average. This responsiveness is one of the key factors of why this is the moving average of choice among many technical traders. As you can see in Figure , a 15-period EMA rises and falls faster than a 15-period SMA. This slight difference doesn’t seem like much, but it is an important factor to be aware of since it can affect returns. Slide 30: Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Slide 31: Indicators are calculations based on the price and the volume of a security that measure such things as money flow, trends, volatility and momentum. Indicators are used as a secondary measure to the actual price movements and add additional information to the analysis of securities. Indicators are used in two main ways: to confirm price movement and the quality of chart patterns, and to form buy and sell signals. Some of the indicator are. Accumulation/Distribution Line. Average Directional Index. Aroon. Aroon Oscillator. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Relative Strength Index. On-Balance Volume. Stochastic Oscillator. Slide 32: The accumulation/distribution line is one of the more popular volume indicators that measures money flows in a security. This indicator attempts to measure the ratio of buying to selling by comparing the price movement of a period to the volume of that period. Acc/Dist = ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) * Period's Volume This is a non-bounded indicator that simply keeps a running sum over the period of the security. Traders look for trends in this indicator to gain insight on the amount of purchasing compared to selling of a security. If a security has an accumulation/distribution line that is trending upward, it is a sign that there is more buying than selling. Slide 33: The average directional index (ADX) is a trend indicator that is used to measure the strength of a current trend. The indicator is seldom used to identify the direction of the current trend, but can identify the momentum behind trends. The ADX is a combination of two price movement measures: the positive directional indicator (+DI) and the negative directional indicator (-DI). The ADX measures the strength of a trend but not the direction. The +DI measures the strength of the upward trend while the -DI measures the strength of the downward trend. These two measures are also plotted along with the ADX line. Measured on a scale between zero and 100, readings below 20 signal a weak trend while readings above 40 signal a strong trend. Slide 34: The Aroon indicator is a relatively new technical indicator that was created in 1995. The Aroon is a trending indicator used to measure whether a security is in an uptrend or downtrend and the magnitude of that trend. The indicator is also used to predict when a new trend is beginning. The indicator is comprised of two lines, an "Aroon up" line (blue line) and an "Aroon down" line (red dotted line). The Aroon up line measures the amount of time it has been since the highest price during the time period. The Aroon down line, on the other hand, measures the amount of time since the lowest price during the time period. The number of periods that are used in the calculation is dependent on the time frame that the user wants to analyze. Slide 35: An expansion of the Aroon is the Aroon oscillator, which simply plots the difference between the Aroon up and down lines by subtracting the two lines. This line is then plotted between a range of -100 and 100. The centerline at zero in the oscillator is considered to be a major signal line determining the trend. The higher the value of the oscillator from the centerline point, the more upward strength there is in the security; the lower the oscillator's value is from the centerline, the more downward pressure. A trend reversal is signaled when the oscillator crosses through the centerline. For example, when the oscillator goes from positive to negative, a downward trend is confirmed. Divergence is also used in the oscillator to predict trend reversals. A reversal warning is formed when the oscillator and the price trend are moving in an opposite direction. The Aroon lines and Aroon oscillators are fairly simple concepts to understand but yield powerful information about trends. This is another great indicator to add to any technical trader's arsenal. Slide 36: The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is one of the most well known and used indicators in technical analysis. This indicator is comprised of two exponential moving averages, which help to measure momentum in the security. The MACD is simply the difference between these two moving averages plotted against a centerline. The centerline is the point at which the two moving averages are equal. Along with the MACD and the centerline, an exponential moving average of the MACD itself is plotted on the chart. The idea behind this momentum indicator is to measure short-term momentum compared to longer term momentum to help signal the current direction of momentum. MACD= shorter term moving average - longer term moving average Slide 37: The relative strength index (RSI) is another one of the most used and well-known momentum indicators in technical analysis. RSI helps to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security. The indicator is plotted in a range between zero and 100. A reading above 70 is used to suggest that a security is overbought, while a reading below 30 is used to suggest that it is oversold. This indicator helps traders to identify whether a security’s price has been unreasonably pushed to current levels and whether a reversal may be on the way. Slide 38: The on-balance volume (O.B.V) indicator is a well-known technical indicator that reflect movements in volume. It is also one of the simplest volume indicators to compute and understand. The O.B.V is calculated by taking the total volume for the trading period and assigning it a positive or negative value depending on whether the price is up or down during the trading period. When price is up during the trading period, the volume is assigned a positive value, while a negative value is assigned when the price is down for the period. The positive or negative volume total for the period is then added to a total that is accumulated from the start of the measure. It is important to focus on the trend in the O.B.V - this is more important than the actual value of the O.B.V measure. This measure expands on the basic volume measure by combining volume and price movement. Slide 39: The stochastic oscillator is plotted within a range of zero and 100 and signals overbought conditions above 80 and oversold conditions below 20. The stochastic oscillator contains two lines. The first line is the %K, which is essentially the raw measure used to formulate the idea of momentum behind the oscillator. The second line is the %D, which is simply a moving average of the %K. The %D line is considered to be the more important of the two lines as it is seen to produce better signals. The stochastic oscillator generally uses the past 14 trading periods in its calculation but can be adjusted to meet the needs of the user.