Published on December 28, 2007
Intensification in urbanising SSA: Intensification in urbanising SSA The challenges for agricultural economists Mary Tiffen Drylands Research Orchard House, Tower Hill Road Crewkerne, Somerset TA18 8BJ, UK Ecological and economic sustainability: Ecological and economic sustainability Farming must be profitable to be sustainable Profits provide essential living costs and means to invest in resource improvements Adjusting to market changes is essential to sustaining profits Topics for discussion: Topics for discussion SSA is urbanising and becoming short of cultivable land This presents challenges to Its farmers Those forced out of farming The sustainability of its soils Agricultural economists in analysing the situation Urbanisation and higher income: Urbanisation and higher income a world-wide phenomenon. Not to be regretted - associated with higher incomes Urban population, SSA, 1968 & 1998: Urban population, SSA, 1968 & 1998 Rural Population Growth is Decelerating: Rural Population Growth is Decelerating Change in sectors over time: Change in sectors over time The urban food challenge : The urban food challenge Towns - the main market: Towns - the main market Exports as % of agric GDP Increased urban demand + reduced agric. land per capita: Increased urban demand + reduced agric. land per capita Change in product markets crops livestock Change in factor markets land labour capital Change in management unit (the family) The four semi-arid districts : The four semi-arid districts Kenya: Makueni -2 short seasons Senegal: Diourbel - old groundnut basin Niger: Maradi - near urbanised Katsina & Kano Kano - northern hinterland of city All very variable rainfall, subject to crop failure, short agricultural season. 2 ex French, 2 ex-British: policy differences Crop markets1960-2000: Crop markets1960-2000 Export groundnuts down (Nigeria and Niger) Local cereals and a variety of other legumes up (Nigeria and Niger, but not Senegal) Crop residues have become tradable Changes since 1960 in the groundnut basin, Senegal: Changes since 1960 in the groundnut basin, Senegal livestock income now more important than groundnut income groundnut hay and meal now important tradable commodities role of groundnuts - 1. food 2. fodder for profitable livestock which also produce manure for millet 3. cash. most farm investments now livestock related, not crop related. Income sources - Diourbel : Income sources - Diourbel 29% 30% 41% Increased importance of livestock: Increased importance of livestock Urban people consume more milk and meat than rural people Increased numbers everywhere except Makueni, especially small ruminants. Livestock the second most important source of farm income in Maradi Makueni: increase in dairy cows in areas with topography suited to small dams heavy investments worthwhile because of change in dairy market elsewhere, disease risks high - collapsing veterinary service Analysing livestock income and capital: Analysing livestock income and capital 1. Sales may not be income, and no sales may mean reinvestment of income. In semi-arid areas income sources vary from year to year, as between crops, livestock, non-farm 2. Costs of livestock inputs: 2. Costs of livestock inputs Young animals (Senegal - fattening) or breeding animals (Kenya -milk) bought in purchases of fodder, crop residues, grazing rights Nigeria , Senegal - crop residue market Niger - changed customs in privatisation of crop residues and weeds on fallow land Kenya - hiring in grazing land for cash or in exchange for services Veterinary expenses, concentrates, payments for bull services or AI Labour costs - higher for stall fed animals Livestock related investments - stalls (everywhere) fencing (Kenya) watering facilities (Kenya) 3. Livestock outputs: 3. Livestock outputs Sales of animals By-products, milk, eggs, etc Sales of services (carting, ploughing, semen) Sales of manure Factors : 1. Land scarcity: Factors : 1. Land scarcity Consequences of land scarcity: Consequences of land scarcity Reduction of fallow, grazing - use of crop residues Privatisation of trees, crop residues, weeds on remaining fallow (Maradi) Increase in sales of land - (Title not necessary) Land as part of the family capital, acquires an opportunity cost Sell to finance education - Kenya? Sell to move elsewhere (to farm in early days, to town, to develop non-farm business, emigrate overseas) Constrained sales - medical costs, general poverty 2. Labour markets and human capital: 2. Labour markets and human capital Non-farm labour market expanding, though limited Accessing it requires investment in either education (Kenya) or social networks (Senegal) Family farm labour may be in short supply > off-farm wages vary by season, skill, value of marginal output, (Kenya) and by macro-economic factors affecting urban labour markets (Nigeria) Concepts of family and household: Concepts of family and household Meaning of household Those who have obligations to assist the family head, even if absent Those who have inheritance rights Partial, not full, sharers in common economy some members have allocated land, & retain its profits some members have different job & retain most earnings town members may get farm food, contribute cash for rural household needs or rural investments But, this is strongly related to education and earnings Family and residence, Makueni: Family and residence, Makueni Current nature of the family: Current nature of the family Human capital & Labour units: Human capital & Labour units Not all those over 15 are in the work force (Kenya) Education enhances ability to compete for good jobs in non-farm sector Education affects opportunity costs of labour Good primary education also enhances farming ability Labour and education in Makueni: Labour and education in Makueni Competing family financial needs: Consumption needs, emergency or regular (1st priority for poor migrants) Investment needs, farm or non-farm, including education of young priorities depend on perceived benefit - education in Kenya regarded as premier necessity, in West Africa low priority. Social networking (ceremonies, festivals, marriage, funerals, etc) (West Africa) FOR MORE NFO.. Competing family financial needs Capital in farming: Capital in farming As farming intensifies, it require more working capital and more monetary investments to improve natural resources (trees, soils), livestock and equipment Such investments require incentives prospect of profit And resources past profits, money from off-farm enterprise or relatives Expenditure patterns, Diourbel: Expenditure patterns, Diourbel Investment timing, Niger: Investment timing, Niger 1994 - Devaluation of FCFA- farming becomes more profitable. Investment and resource conservation: Investment and resource conservation Chief problem - maintaining soil fertility on whole of farm - resources lacking, not knowledge Requires: manure invest in animals, stabling, carts Fertiliser, bought if cost-benefit ratio attractive it is available at time required, and of good quality (Niger and Nigeria complaints) Increased differentiation: Increased differentiation Specialist farmers, able to invest in land improvement and able to buy in additional land for themselves or their heirs Those unable to invest and becoming more and more reliant on non-farm income. Their requirement: more productive off farm employment towns with infrastructure relevant education Income sources - Diourbel : Income sources - Diourbel 29% 30% 41% Challenges to agricultural economists: Challenges to agricultural economists Understanding farming as one of competing livelihoods in a dynamically changing soiety Understanding opportunity costs of labour, capital and land Recognising the scarce factor - water, land, labour Proper analysis of livestock Pricing services for maintenance - water, veterinary services, etc Feasible management structures for services Recognising the constraints on government service provision Develop processing and servicing in market towns Good luck! Meet the future!: Good luck! Meet the future! I am retiring!