Published on November 26, 2007
Tracing the Contours of Turkish Ideological Space, 2001-2004: Tracing the Contours of Turkish Ideological Space, 2001-2004 Ali Çarkoğlu Melvin J. Hinich April, 2006 Slide2: Vote Share on a Left - Right Scale 1950-2002 Military Interventions in 1971 and 1997 Euclidean Distance Model: Euclidean Distance Model Suppose that there are N observers and M targets. Each observer at position reports the squared Euclidean distance to the targets at locations Squared Distances with Errors: Squared Distances with Errors For each error Removing the Nonlinear Terms: Removing the Nonlinear Terms The nonlinearity is removed by subtracting the distances to one target, target m=0 from the distances to the other targets. Then compute the sample covariance matrix of the differences Slide8: Assume that the errors are independently & identically distributed and that they are independent of the observer positions Covariance Matrix of Distance Differences: Covariance Matrix of Distance Differences Assume that the observer positions are uncorrelated random variables whose variances are Then the covariance matrix of the distance differences is Slide10: is a Mx2 matrix of target positions 2001 Survey: 2001 Survey A nation-wide representative survey of urban population conducted during the chaotic weeks of the second economic crisis of February 2001 1201 face-to-face interviews were conducted in 12 of the 81 provinces of Turkey The survey was run during 2/20 – 3/16 using a random sampling method that represents the nationwide voting age urban population based on the urban population figures of 1997 census data. KEY DATA ABOUT THE 2002 PRE-ELECTION SURVEY: KEY DATA ABOUT THE 2002 PRE-ELECTION SURVEY The target of the sample was the nation-wide urban and rural settlers who are 18 years or older. The sample consisted of a total of 2028 face-to-face interviews conducted in 54 districts, 291 neighborhoods and 95 villages of a total 33 provinces. Under the restrictive assumption of simple random sampling this sample has a confidence interval of 95% with an error margin of +/- 2,2%. Provinces chosen according to probability proportionate to size (PPS) principle on the basis of their registered voter population in 1999 general election. The questionnaire was administered between the 10th and 25th of October 2002. FACTS ABOUT THE FIELD RESEARCH: FACTS ABOUT THE FIELD RESEARCH Training for questionnaire implementation was given by Ali Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu on October 4. The questionaire was tested and necessay corrections made after a pilot study on October 5-6. During the project 9 experts, 35 supervisers and 186 interviewers were assigned. 45% of the interviews were completed in the first trial. The rest is completed by either trying for a second time or selecting new streets and households. · Interviews lasted 35 minutes on average. 45% of the interviews were randomly controlled. Controls are made either by phoning or going to the households one more time. 332 interviews were cancelled and conducted with replacements. Basic Independent Variables: Basic Independent Variables Slide19: March-2004 survey of nation-wide representative urban population (N=1,232) Slide21: ● 1st D. 2nd D. Alevis -1.5 -3.8 Non-Alevis +0.3 -1.7 Slide22: ● CHP ● DEHAP ● DSP ● YTP ● GP ● AKP ● SP ● BBP ● MHP ● DYP ● ANAP ■ CHP ■ DSP ■ DYP ■ MHP ■ FP ■ Very religious leader ■ Prominent Businessman ■ HADEP ● 2002 ■ 2001 ♦ 2004 “Left” Secularist “Center” “Right” Pro-Islamist “Periphery” Reformist Pro-EU Kurdish Nationalist Status Quo Reactionary Anti-EU Turkish Nationalist -AKP remains as the only credible party with “centrist” positions and clear pro-EU stance -CHP left the reformist, pro-EU camp as well as its support concerning the protection and advancement of the Kurdish minority rights. CHP seems positioned to exploit anti-EU nationalist rhetoric. -”Right of center” is back into its original anti-EU position. CHP is likely to pull them down on this axis. -Is the Turkish center ready for another business take-over similar to the GP in 2002? Slide23: Thank you.....Questions...?